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7 years 11 months

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
02/04/2017 - 9:24am I feel obligated to point out

I feel obligated to point out that larger R-squared values are better (not smaller, like a p-value). That one is abysmal, and is telling you that there is no relationship between your variables that can't be accounted for by noise.

12/19/2016 - 12:18pm Fantastic!


09/03/2016 - 10:49am I pay for Sling during

I pay for Sling during football season, have an antenna for network stations and listen to michigan radio for games that are on BTN.

04/09/2016 - 4:31pm I've found that doing planks

I've found that doing planks several times a day does wonders for desk-chair related low back pain. It took about a week, 3 times a day holding for 30-40 seconds each time before the pain was gone.

01/30/2016 - 8:51am You need to at least account

You need to at least account for strength of schedule before you can say anything here.

12/04/2015 - 11:18am 2004, facing the Vikings.

2004, facing the Vikings. Joey Harrington puts together an amazing 80 yard touchdown drive to force overtime. Things were looking up until a botched XP with no time on the clock ended the game, 28-27.

11/25/2015 - 12:21pm Right, so your claim is that

Right, so your claim is that the call on Zettel had no effect on the way the other players play, including Henry's, throughout the rest of the game?

I think you're simply being obtuse, but there is an important point here that gets to the heart of the targeting rule. If we assume that players will respond to the way the game is officiated, we can create a safer environment for all players by calling a tight game (and I think that this is a reasonable assumption to make). If, as you presume, players will not react in any way to the officiating, then the targeting rule is pointless theater.

11/25/2015 - 11:50am So, let me get this straight.

So, let me get this straight. You don't think the way a game is called has an effect on the way players play? You don't think players in general try to avoid penalties?


11/25/2015 - 11:33am Yeah, exactly. The Zettle

Yeah, exactly. The Zettle thing frees up Henry to blast Hackenberg on this play. And I think the more interesting question is, if Zettel gets kicked out for that one, do you think Henry comes in that hard? My guess is not.

11/24/2015 - 9:25pm Are the LT and LG flipped in

Are the LT and LG flipped in the IU diagram? 

11/20/2015 - 3:14pm On the second play: "Rudock

On the second play: 

"Rudock gives 'em a hard count you can see the second level of IU's D flinch to the LOS. Rudock checks"

Is it possible to tell what he checks out of?


11/18/2015 - 8:20pm M 20 PSU 24

M 20 PSU 24

11/06/2015 - 10:27am 26 - 19 Michigan

26 - 19 Michigan

11/05/2015 - 11:21am Practice time probably

Practice time probably contributes, in addition to the good points others have made. You probably don't rep versions of the same play with and without the play-action, so in the game you just go with what you've practiced, whether or not the fake is likely to be convincing or not.

10/29/2015 - 8:35pm 41 32 m

41 32 m

10/14/2015 - 3:06pm 28-27 M

28-27 M

10/12/2015 - 1:35pm Woops, didn't mean to step on

Woops, didn't mean to step on your toes. Great minds think alike?

10/05/2015 - 12:25pm The closer I look at football

The closer I look at football outsiders the more I think that they have absolutely no idea what they're doing.

09/16/2015 - 2:59pm I get the impression that

I get the impression that this staff emphasises vision and balance over "explosive to-the-house speed".

09/01/2015 - 4:38pm M 20
U 18

M 20

U 18

08/28/2015 - 6:09pm Utah doesn't have any

Utah doesn't have any material from which to scout the offense. There are going to be a lot of surprises in terms of personel packages and constraint plays.

08/19/2015 - 11:58am Its pretty normal for objects

Its pretty normal for objects towards the edges of photographs to appear larger than things in the middle.

08/12/2015 - 11:43am From the article:
2014 Dallas

From the article:

2014 Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Total # of Plays: 119
  • Total # of Plays Correctly Predicted: 109
  • Total # of Plays Incorrectly Predicted: 10
  • Percent of Plays Correctly Predicted: 91.6%

Is 91% really high accuracy? Sounds like a recipe to get gashed by play action to me.

05/28/2014 - 12:58pm Davis really did make an
Davis really did make an argument for more playing time. Hopefully it wasn't a result of the competition level as it was nice to see.
The game also clarified Altidore's role I think. As Brian said, he didn't have many one-on-one scoring opportunities, but he did a good job of boxing defenders out and fighting for possession.
There was a nice sequence in the second half where Altidore controlled a long pass, kept the defender away from the ball with his body, made a quick little pass to Bradley who tried to thread another quick pass to a wide open Davis which was just narrowly deflected. 
I have a feeling that more than one goal in this World Cup will follow that model: Altidore fights for possession deep allowing the rest of the team to come up, quick pass to Dempsey, quick pass to Bradley, etc, as opposed to a lone player streaking down the field beating defenders.
11/12/2013 - 1:39pm Gardner seems to be reading

Gardner seems to be reading the MLB ... Does he keep because that LB takes off for the playside? But that doesn't seem right, because the pulling guard ends up on the MLB. Is this supposed to be a handoff but Gardener pulls because the FB botches the block?

10/16/2013 - 12:59pm I very much like this theory,

I very much like this theory, and giving the coaches some credit in general. Regarding important games, I would throw in ND, which would seem to be a datapoint in Borges's favor.

Now, for the tackle-over stuff, I think it makes a lot of sense to deploy it for the two-game Minny/Penn St. stretch. Its a totally sensible gameplan against Penn St. in particular who are thin at the linebacker position. However, it would very much be a datapoint against the coaching if we continued to see it this year.

I think another factor behind running non-optimal plays partway through the season is that we want to hide plays from Michigan St. and Ohio. Make them prep for weird stuff, and then throw something completely new that they haven't seen. There are only so many times we can reinvent the offense during the season, and it makes sense to try to have some stuff off-film going into those games.

For example, it would make a lot of sense to me  see this team turn into a short passing team that utilizes the strengths of Gallon, Dileo and Norfleet in those games. But if that (or some other direction) is coming in the future, we don't want it on film yet, so it should stay in the barn against inferior opposition. Furthermore, if that is the plan, then you don't want to be throwing lots of bubbles, because you don't want to see press coverage on every play.

10/02/2013 - 9:55am There's another option, which

There's another option, which is to change up the playcalling. This line has been better at pass-protection than run protection. It seems to me that an emphasis on short passing routes might get some defenders out of the box and make the running game easier. The problems come when the opponent knows we're going to run and we run anyways.

09/19/2013 - 12:44pm 30 - 10 Wolverines

30 - 10 Wolverines

04/08/2013 - 12:25pm Thank you! You'll always be

Thank you! You'll always be remembered for your TREMENDOUS blocks and those sweet throwback screens!

01/26/2013 - 10:57pm News like this demands

News like this demands muppets!

12/11/2012 - 2:20pm It seems like you'd see a

It seems like you'd see a bump (over the team average at least) this whenever your worst rebounder shoots, assuming that getting your own rebounds (a la McGary) is rare.

12/11/2012 - 1:00pm Couldn't these teams also

Couldn't these teams also just be the ones for which your method is the least accurate - for whatever reason? You're essentially saying that teams that won more than you expected got "lucky", but what if your model is just plain wrong for some teams?

11/14/2012 - 10:36am 31 - 17 Michigan

31 - 17 Michigan

11/11/2012 - 7:17pm Thanks for all your work BISB

Thanks for all your work BISB - especially in the (ever chaotic) liveblog!

11/07/2012 - 2:14pm 25-15 Michigan

25-15 Michigan

10/31/2012 - 10:24pm This is obviously better than

This is obviously better than the straight numbers, but the problem with this approach is that different teams schedules can have very different levels of difficulty. For example, if team A plays a very difficult schedule, they're not going to change those strong teams offensive output as much as team B, who plays nobody but cupcakes.

10/31/2012 - 11:39am Mich 9
Minn 3

Mich 9

Minn 3

10/24/2012 - 11:52am 45-30 M wins

45-30 M wins

10/17/2012 - 11:39am 20 - 12 M

180 yards rushing.

State moves the ball but can't get in the endzone.  Turnovers keep Michigan's point total down.

10/14/2012 - 1:22am Exactly, forward progress was

Exactly, forward progress was clearly stopped, end of story.

03/13/2012 - 3:35pm I actually used pagerank a

I actually used pagerank a few years ago to pick my bracket.  It did well, especially in the first round or so, but only ended up getting 3rd in my bracket pool.

03/08/2012 - 4:02pm You can't draw conclusions

You can't draw conclusions from data with such low R2.  The R2 is telling you that the percentage of the variation you're accounting for with this variable is 2-3%.  So of all the wild outcomes that can occur on the basketball court, the 3pt attempts can explain less than 3% of the result.

Don't get mislead by the fact that the conclusions line up in a way that you can rationalize - this data isn't conclusive at all.

03/05/2012 - 8:14pm Its been fun to watch Ace's

Its been fun to watch Ace's writing style improve so much over the last few months.  The only problem now is that he sounds just like Brian. Given another year and he's going to be among the best sportswriters in the sports blogosphere.

03/02/2012 - 5:53pm I just read about it on the

I just read about it on the internet.

02/20/2012 - 12:15pm Exactly.  Reductio ad

Exactly.  Reductio ad absurdum: QBs have higher PAN than offensive guards, so we should stop recruiting so many linemen.  Clearly this is wrong.

There is a tradeoff between defending the run and defending the pass.  Teams that sell out to stop one open themselves up to the other.  I think its reasonable to say that one reason Russel Wilson's numbers look so good is precisely because Wisconsin's running game was so dominant.

02/13/2012 - 9:32am For a "meta stat" post, this

For a "meta stat" post, this is very light on data.  Instead of debating the merits of EV vs SR, why not just show some data on which one is more predictive of wins?

I'm looking forward to the case study.

02/13/2012 - 9:31am I must be a super football

I must be a super football nerd, but when I read the bit about the inside zone minutia my first thought was: "I hope Brian turns that into a post".

01/13/2012 - 2:56pm The play-by-play breakdown

The play-by-play breakdown adds depth that isn't available from summary statistics but I think everyone understands that this is a busy recriuting season, and you're looking for a break after football.  Maybe you could focus on ufr-ing "interesting" games (like this one), probably games where something either went really well or horribly wrong, on either side of the ball.

12/06/2011 - 7:34pm This is really great - stick

This is really great - stick with it!

11/14/2011 - 7:26pm No discussion of 3rd and long?

I was expecting some praise for the defense on the 3rd and long plays.  At one point during the game I found myself saying "I love watching this defense in 3rd and long".