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I would not go as far as …

I would not go as far as "near-certain", but I would trade out of the first pick and stockpile talent if I were the Bears GM.  I think Williams is below average for a #1 overall QB, and the apparent immaturity would scare me off.

This is definitely not true,…

This is definitely not true, at least for the 49ers. During Harbaugh's last season in SF, Jed York said he wasn't going to keep Harbaugh as coach even if the Niners won the Super Bowl.

Had Alabama lost the game…

Had Alabama lost the game against Auburn but won the SEC, the #4 spot would have gone to UGA. FSU without Travis was not making the CFP over a one-loss SEC team. 

He may be taller than…

He may be taller than Richardson, but he's not stronger and definitely not faster.

I'm not privy to any insider…

I'm not privy to any insider-ish information, so maybe your comment is hinting at something I'm completely ignorant about.  But from my outsider fan perspective, it seemed like Hunter was great as the focal point of the offense, but lacked the leadership abilities the team had when upperclassmen to fill that role the prior 2 years.  Isaiah Livers and Eli Brooks weren't wearing ski masks to conference away games or taunting the opponent bench.

Throwing away the COVID year, look at the difference in the football team between the Shea years and the Cade/JJ years.  On an individual basis, the 2018-2019 teams were probably more talented across the board than 2021-2022.  But the 18-19 teams wilted in pressure situations, especially against OSU.  The 21 and 22 teams obviously did not.  "Leadership" is an overused term on sports talk radio, but it does matter.

I've read several studies…

I've read several studies before (I can't remember where, unfortunately) that low-intensity, steady-state exercise causes oxidative stress after ~1 hour.  The effects of long-term endurance training, paradoxically, makes it about as healthy to train for marathons as it does to eat McDonald's every day.

2013: 4th

2014: 12th

2015:…

2013: 4th

2014: 12th

2015: 74th

2016: 50th

Should Beilein have been fired after 2016?  I cannot believe how stupid some people are when it comes to assessing/valuing coaches.

Btw, 02-08... 128th/61st/44th/128th/28th/59th/137th.  Juwan still has a lot of growth to do as a coach.  But when Shannon's transfer wasn't accepted and Llewellyn was lost for the season, this team lost the upperclass leaders good teams need.  Hunter is a great player and probably a great guy, but leaders don't wear ski masks or other props to critical road games.

 

He can probably make more…

He can probably make more money in Europe than via NIL.  And I can't imagine this season has been much fun for him at Michigan.

On the positive side, with the transfer portal now teams can re-invent on the fly.  With Terrence Shannon, this was probably a #3-#5 seed team with a legit shot at extending the S16 streak.

Michigan -2 is the line S&P+…

Michigan -2 is the line S&P+ would have on The Game right now, assuming a 3-point swing for home field.  Most of those early lines track closely with S&P+ except for LSU/FSU (SP has it LSU -2.5) and UGA/Tenn (SP has it UGA -4.5).

I love her.

I love her.

TCU is an underdog this week…

TCU is an underdog this week, will likely be a pick'em or small underdog next week, will be a single digit favorite against ISU, and would likely be close to a pick'em in the Big 12 championship.  It's less than 10% they remain undefeated. 

I think 11-1 Michigan gets…

I think 11-1 Michigan gets in over Clemson or UNC if the loss to OSU is close. The Big 12 and PAC-12 champ probably need to have 2 losses in that scenario.

The original reply is right…

The original reply is right in that each game UM plays will impact the win probability of all future games.  For example, this week Michigan has a 97% chance to win against Nebraska.  That win probability was not 97% pre-season.  However, assuming the pre-season BPI is accurate for every team in college basketball, then yes the BPI p-50 projection is a losing record.

But... FPI/BPI are not as predictive as SP+/KenPom/Torvik. BPI has Michigan #87, not #40. KenPom has UM at #22, Torvik at #28, and the AP poll at #22. Torvik projects UM to go 20-10, KenPom projects 19-11. 19/20 wins seems about right.

In TN/GA, either team @ 11-1…

In TN/GA, either team @ 11-1 gets in over an 11-1 Michigan team, so the team with the easier remaining schedule is the team we'd want to win.  That looks like TN.  They only have Mizzou, Vandy, and SC left.  Georgia has to go on the road to Mississippi State and Kentucky in consecutive weeks immediately after playing TN. 

With NIL, it's possible a…

With NIL, it's possible a Heisman trophy finalist RB could make more in his final year of college than as a 3rd/4th round rookie.  Also, I get the mileage argument to leave early, but 200 FBS touches is not the same as 200 NFL touches.

I think the 2022 team…

I think the 2022 team probably is better than the 2021 team.  Per SP+, 2022 would be about a 4-point favorite over 2021 (assuming CFB talent across the FBS universe is ~= to 2021).  Also, this team has not had a Rutgers-level game that was a legit nail-biter against a bottom tier Power 5 team.

Whether this team has a better season than the 2021 team will be determined in a few weeks.

To an extent, the initial…

To an extent, the initial CFP rankings matter.  But this is a year-to-date ranking, not a projection.  For an 11-1 Michigan to make it into the playoff, the PAC 12 and Big 12 winner would both need to have 2 losses and Clemson would need to lose once, at the very least.  12-1 Clemson vs. 11-1 Michigan vs. an 11-1 3rd SEC team would be the debate, and it would likely come down to how the committee sees each loss.  And that scenario assumes Alabama wins out and wins the SEC. 

He Bolivia’d…

He Bolivia’d WolverineDevotee for a mildly offensive Tweet and put out some way out there opinions about rent on Twitter. I think he also had a weird thing with XM where he kind of outed his real identity on Twitter. Ace always respected MGoBlog’s no politics rule and contributed some incredible content here for a decade, so I personally don’t get the dislike. But these days everyone thinks they have to hate everyone that doesn’t agree with them on everything, so (shrugging emoji)

The math is correct, per the…

The math is correct, per the FPI model itself.  It provides a "Win Out" probability for regular season + the conference championship.  Assuming Michigan is between a 75% and 80% favorite in the BIG10 title game, that game plus the OSU win probability yields the 3.2% Win Out probability shown on the FPI page.

Such an underrated, classic…

Such an underrated, classic movie.

Joe Brady was a genius when…

Joe Brady was a genius when he had Joe Burrow at QB and 2 of the 5 best WRs in the NFL on the same college team.  For the Carolina Panthers, not so much.  The top end talent on that LSU offense was probably better than the top end talent on Georgia's defense last year.

Yep.  Arguing #6 vs. #8 is a…

Yep.  Arguing #6 vs. #8 is a crapshoot in the pre-season, but grouping the teams by tiers based on total points, the poll seems reasonable.

Tier 1: Bama/OSU/Georgia

Tier 2: Clemson/ND/Utah/A&M/Michigan

Tier 2B/3A: Oklahoma

Tier 3: Baylor/Oregon/Ok St/Mich St/USC/NC St

Tier 3B/4A: Miami

Tier 4: The rest of the Top 25.

I can buy that.  I might put Notre Dame with Oklahoma, but otherwise it's pretty good for a pre-season poll. 

His friends call him Rico.

His friends call him Rico.

Can someone start a petition…

Can someone start a petition to bring back Verne Lundquist for 1 season of Big Ten football?

I think this is exactly…

I think this is exactly correct, GoBlue96.  Harbaugh just cares genuinely about the people in his life; his players, his family, and his staff.  The contradictions are in how the US organizes politically, not in Harbaugh's consistent people-first beliefs.

In the SI analysis, …

In the SI analysis, "Viewership" is only 20%, and the ranking metric for that category (# of games w/ over 1M viewers) seems flawed--Oklahoma is not the most valuable TV brand in college football.  I would guess that viewership and academics have a much higher weight to the Big Ten. 

The Avs didn't exist in the…

The Avs didn't exist in the early 90s.

Stars in basketball matter a…

Stars in basketball matter a lot less than stars in football because of the NFL draft-eligible definition.  The high 5-stars in basketball either bust or stay 1 year and leave for the draft.  5 stars in football have to stay 3+ years.

The way Henry has been…

The way Henry has been utilized by Tennessee the past 3 years, it's about 50/50 that his best football is behind him.  This is a great opportunity for Haskins.

Yes, and the US is likely…

Yes, and the US is likely playing one of the other UK teams.

I mean... it's not NOT the…

I mean... it's not NOT the incel board.  (/s) (/ducks)

The reboot of Joe…

The reboot of Joe Millionaire is better.

For 99.9% of the population,…

For 99.9% of the population, the age difference helps in athletics.  College coaches aren't looking at ages too much when offering scholarships.  But to the NBA, it absolutely matters.  Older prospects are evaluated more critically than their younger peers, all else equal. 

That interview with Dan…

That interview with Dan Patrick might have been good if DP had brought in Major Applewhite after the commercial break.

Vishal Garg is the co…

Vishal Garg is the co-founder and CEO of Better.com, a company planning to go public in 2022 through an SPAC.  His net worth is an estimated $4B, about 100 times more than the 0.1% threshold.  That is precisely the type of individual you describe in your post.

If you are going to troll, at least don't be an idiot.

Yep.  Original tweet still…

Yep.  Original tweet still up.

If "Southern" means closest…

If "Southern" means closest to the areas with the most elite recruits, it's certainly fair.

One of the WalkOn's near…

One of the WalkOn's near Disney is open for sure; my stepdaughter works there.  I was going to suggest WalkOn's or YardHouse in ICON Park.  Or on the 140-inch screen in the theater room at my house, as long as you don't mind the 2 dogs, 4 cats, 2 screaming nieces, and 10 Spanish karaoke-singing South American women all trying to outdo each other in volume on the 1st floor. 

While this has turned out to…

While this has turned out to be true and will assuredly be reflected in draft position come April, it's fair to speculate that Harrison might have performed better under Nua/McDonald, and lining up on the opposite side of Michigan's Heisman trophy finalist DE.

I've been thinking about…

I've been thinking about that too.  I don't think Michigan is 100% out with a loss in the right set of circumstances (UGA and Houston win).  In that circumstance, it's UGA, the Big 12 champ, probably ND, and who else?  11-2 Michigan won't drop below 10-2 Ohio State.  Maybe Alabama is a threat if the UGA game is close, but I can definitely see a scenario where Michigan loses and still makes it in.

Nobody, including probably…

Nobody, including probably Mr. and Mrs. Brady, thought Tom Brady would become anything close to TOM BRADY.  Also, Cade doesn't have Brady's arm strength.  The better comparison to Cade/JJ is probably the situation Georgia had with Jake Fromm/Justin Fields.

Sexual abuse is not…

Sexual abuse is not something that should ever be used by one fan base to talk trash to another fan base the week of a football game (or any other week).

FauxMo is right. I think it…

FauxMo is right. I think it's widely understood that the end goal of Vegas is to get an exact 50/50 split for every game, because then Vegas makes 5% of the total action that week. What some people don't get is that a 50/50 split is best achieved by setting an opening line that is as accurate as possible to avoid heavy, unbalanced professional action on 1 side that opens a liability for the casino.

Another thing ppl like FreddieMercuryHayes and Red Is Blue get wrong is equating the betting influence of a singular fan base like Michigan with the "Public" as a whole. Public perception is a factor in line setting because the aggregate amateur money on any given football weekend is a material portion of the total action. But any single fan base will be (at most) 2-3% of the total amateur handle, so the "WOOO Michigan" sentiment by itself isn't enough to move a line.

Great news!  Franklin and…

Great news!  Franklin and Tucker both leaving sets up a hilarious scenario where MSU empties the tank to go after Narduzzi and he rejects them to take the Penn St job. 

Yes, I understand this. …

Yes, I understand this.  Getting a 50/50 split of money and setting lines by team strength are not mutually exclusive ideas.

If this were true, there…

If this were true, there would be a lot more professional gamblers and they would be a lot richer.  MGM isn't manipulating the line to get your $200 bet and risk being on the wrong side of a $20,000 bet. This might be one of the dumber comments I've read on the blog this year. 

Nebraska is not a bad team…

Nebraska is not a bad team at all.  They have been unlucky, but not bad.  Michigan is a Top 10 team by any measure after 5 weeks, and UM is only favored by 3 this week.  I think most expected NU to be worse by some measure.

I think Cade was either…

I think Cade was either concussed or really shaken from that targeting hit.  The first throw after the hit was the wide open toss to Schoonmaker he missed badly (considering length of the throw and how open he was).  And then he missed almost every throw the 2nd half.

Unless it was a forced error…

Unless it was a forced error.  For the issues with Webber and UM to have continued on as long as they have, there must be some low-profile big money donors who still hold a grudge against him. Otherwise, I can't see any reason for Warde to volunteer a denial. 

Where in the article (or…

Where in the article (or elsewhere) does Webber name Warde Manuel specifically?  From the quote in the article, it's not clear he's talking about Warde.  It could have been Jim Hackett, or even Dave Brandon, who reputedly treated athletes as well as he treated fans poorly.