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In case anyone is interested…

In case anyone is interested, here are JJ's passing stats vs last year at this time.

* NFL QBR, not NCAA passer rating

The CSU rating doesn't mean much since it doesn't work well for so few pass attempts.

Each interception lowers the QBR by ~6 points, transforming all 3 into incompletions would make his total QBR 144.8 this year, for whatever that's worth.

IMO these games against lower competition are not very useful for predicting future performance, I was just curious to see the comparison.

Overall I'm not worried about JJ, but I think it's pretty clear the offensive line is quite a bit worse than last year, which is worrying. Hinton has moments in the run game where he absolutely crushes people and other times where he busts catastrophically. Barnhart doesn't seem like he will be able to handle the better edge rushers on the schedule. I haven't noticed Nugent much, but it would be hard to match what Olu did last year.

Something to think about- a…

Something to think about- a typical 30-minute tv show is around 22 minutes, so 8 minutes of ads, which is ~26.7% of 30 mins. From the reddit post, 56 minutes of ads out of 203 minutes of broadcast time is ~27.5%. Super similar, which is surprising to me because the football commercial time feels so much worse.

In addition to the privacy…

In addition to the privacy benefits, if you ever connect to any public WiFi (airport, coffee shop, etc) then you should absolutely use a VPN. Not using one is reckless and borderline masochistic. At home though, if you don't care about the privacy benefits, then it's not a big deal. It's still useful for accessing stuff that is geo-restricted and for hiding your activity from your ISP.

A note on the privacy stuff though- it doesn't help as much as most people think. Your IP address is just one aspect of how companies fingerprint you. Your web browser provides tons of information about the device you're using, it is usually unique enough that companies can reliably identify you even if your IP is constantly changing, as long as you're using the same device. So if you ever logged in to any Google service for example, with or without VPN, Google can still identify you whether you're using a VPN or not. And even if you never log in, all of your sessions can be linked together to form an anonymous profile of you to serve you targeted ads. That may or may not matter to you, but don't be fooled by VPN companies marketing, they typically way overstate the privacy benefits of their services. Some of them are pretty scummy.

If the current rate of…

If the current rate of progress continues, which is likely but not certain, then it is going to have a dramatic impact on the economy. We will definitely need to deal with that, we probably need to do something to ensure the benefits / wealth / productivity gains are redistributed, because as it is right now the wealthy are going to reap all the benefits and regular folks are going to be massively worse off. A lot of posts here discussing good ideas around that.

But the scenario where AI  kills us all is a very real one. It sounds far fetched and most people will dismiss the idea but very serious people are very concerned about it. It's not that it's imminent, it could very well be 30+ years down the road, the problem is that very little research is happening to actually understand how these models work and how we can align them to our (humans) goals. Of course we understand mathematically how they work but once they are trained, they are basically black boxes that we give input to and get an output. Similar to how we still don't fully understand exactly what's going on in our human brains and it has taken many decades of research to understand what parts of the brain are responsible for what, how they respond to different inputs, what happens when some parts are disabled or enhanced, etc.

The danger is that once you develop something much smarter than humans, if it is not aligned to human goals, everybody dies. There are no 2nd chances. Imagine if we as scientists had to solve a problem in one shot, with no re-dos. It's virtually unheard of. So we need to get cracking on this problem now so that when the time comes we have good solutions.

How can we contain something that is much smarter than us? Trying to contain a super intelligent AI is like your dog trying to keep you locked in your own house. How can we make sure it is aligned to our goals and not it's own? How can we make sure it is not lying to us when we test that? There are so many unknowns here and a failure is probably an extinction event, because it's very hard to think of a goal an AI could have where humans still exist when that goal is fully optimized for.

It reminds me a bit of climate change, how we keep saying we'll deal with it later but at some unknown point we will cross a line where it's too late.

Sorry to walk you back towards the edge.

In case anyone wants a…

In case anyone wants a direct link to the picture, to use as a desktop background or whatever:

https://d2rxqglyhdohqf.cloudfront.net/cp/ce77fd68c3d559d95b0a2ad8bb915b59/3x.jpg

Freddy Adu? Jozy Altidore?

Freddy Adu? Jozy Altidore?

Thanks for putting this…

Thanks for putting this together. One question, is the book + t-shirt available to ship to Canada? Couldn't find anything on the website about that. Obviously there would be an additional cost, that's fine.

I don't have enough points…

I don't have enough points to start a thread but I really enjoyed this strategy discussion on the game from PFF. Starts at 28:21.

Michigan is also #2 on…

Michigan is also #2 on Kenpom, with the #5 offense and #2 defense.

It depends what's causing…

It depends what's causing the site to crash. It might not be because of static assets, it might be the database server struggling to keep up with all the reads/writes for the message board. CDN won't help with that. Caching could help with the reads but there's no great solution for the writes other than scaling up/out the database server(s). This can easily be automated if they're using AWS, Azure or GCP but if they're running their own database servers it's not an easy task, might be expensive and might not be worth it because it is not necessary ~95% of the time.

I agree that this site should migrate to those services but it's a bunch of work and if you don't know what you're doing you'll have to hire someone to help you and that's money. Overall it just might not be worth it from a business perspective to go from 95% to 99.9% uptime; realistically how many customers are they losing because of the downtime? I would guess not many at all.

They also had Peyton Hillis…

They also had Peyton Hillis on that team. I remember some fun times running the Flexbone with them in NCAA 08 with McFadden and Jones at slotback and Hillis as fullback.

Q1 was mostly pre-COVID, so…

Q1 was mostly pre-COVID, so this growth doesn't mean much IMO. Let's see what it's like in Q2.

No defensive coordinator in…

No defensive coordinator in the world can gameplan for Parris Campbell versus Brandon Watson in man coverage. Plus they had a great college QB in Haskins who is now starting as a rookie in the NFL.

The OSU game to me felt like they were just abusing our slow 3rd corner, more of an awful personnel mismatch than a bad scheme. I agree with you maybe he could (should?) have realized this early in the season and installed more zone defenses but the defense's whole identity was press man cover 1 and it worked very well most of the year, it's not easy to change it during the season. Watson was pretty good most of the year in press coverage. He just went up against a buzzsaw of really great athletes at OSU, it became obvious that he couldn't hang, and OSU exploited that to the max. I think it would have been very different if we had someone like Dax Hill instead of Watson as our nickel.

This year he has definitely changed up his approach, we are playing way more zone and different coverages than last year which was probably 90% cover 1.

Don Brown's track record is pretty good at Michigan, the defense has been top 10 in SP+ every year. Including this year and even in 2018 including the OSU result. I have no idea who we could get to replace him that would be better right now.

SP+ still includes a bit of…

SP+ still includes a bit of preseason projection at this point (it slowly phases out through the season) but it's still better than other popular metrics like total yards. It takes into account how good your opponents are, it removes garbage time, removes the impact of time of possession etc. Not sure what other metric you have that is better? "My eyes" is not a good answer.

I don't think the defense will sustain this level of performance the whole year but so far they ARE the #2 defense in the country according to the best metric we have, there is no bias or opinion there. SP+ is crushing it against the spread this year, it obviously works as a predictive metric.

Love the podcasts and can't…

Love the podcasts and can't really complain since they're free, but is there any alternative/competitor to Podbean you can switch to? Every podcast takes so long to download, even over my very fast internet connection (500 Mbps). I've tried mobile apps (Pocket Casts) as well as the direct download and it's the same thing every week. I've heard Podbean isn't free, as in MGoBlog is paying for this hosting, yet the quality of service is trash by 2019 standards. There must be a better way.

 

Peppers provided way more…

Peppers provided way more value above replacement on defense than he would have at running back. Running backs in general don't really matter in today's game, the value of a superstar RB is way less than almost any other position. Just look at the NFL contracts, RBs do not get paid anymore because the money is better spent elsewhere.

In addition I think you're underestimating his impact on defense. Do you remember the Utah game where he completely blew up 3 or 4 bubble screens? You can probably count on one hand the number of times offenses tried that against us for the rest of his career. In general it's harder to see the impact of defensive players but guaranteed he was the primary focus of every offense we played against.

I don't think it's fair to judge players based solely on their record vs OSU or number of B1G championships, those aren't individual things. Jake Long and Mike Hart never beat OSU, are they automatically disappointments?

Wow nice catch. Not only is…

Wow nice catch. Not only is it 13 MB, it also loads on the mobile version of the site even though it's not visible. This is really crappy, it is wasting a lot of peoples mobile data. Nobody has a monitor with a high enough resolution to justify a banner that is 8140x1986.

Yes the browser will cache the image so you won't need to download it every single time but still, this is pretty bad. Whoever uploaded the banner should know better.

I started with SPSS because…

I started with SPSS because that's we used at my first job, but I switched to Python about a year ago. I love how easy it is to use scikit-learn, Keras and Tensorflow. Take some time to really learn matplotlib and numpy and you've got everything you need to do machine learning. Jupyter notebook is nice too, it lets you "tell a story" for the suits in the same document where you write your code. Next step for me is moving everything to Azure (not my choice...) and leveraging Spark to speed things up.

If I were starting now I'd definitely start with Python, it hides a lot of complexity away from the user and makes it super easy to get started. On top of that you can use Python to do pretty much anything, as opposed to R or SPSS which are kind of limited to statistics stuff.

He is a "bench player" in name only

DiVincenzo is 3rd on the team in both minutes and usage. He is not some random guy. Even before this game, he was ranked on most 2018 NBA draft boards as a 2nd round pick.

He was on fire, he went 5/7 from 3 including several against very good defense. He was getting into the lane much more easily than Michigan typically allows, that's something to work on and improve, but it's not a lack of information / scouting.

Do you think Michigan's opponents don't scout Duncan Robinson because he's a "bench" player? Of course they do, and of course Michigan scouted DiVincenzo. If Duncan goes 5/7 from 3 with dudes in his face, is that a scouting error? No, it's just life sometimes.

We got beat by a great team with a good strategy and a guy who went ham. It happens, there isn't always some easy fix for next time like "scout the bench players".

 

I too need to find this

I too need to find this picture. Until then, this will suffice:

https://twitter.com/JDue51/status/978833253196017664

nfl data for R here is an nfl scraper for R: https://github.com/maksimhorowitz/nflscrapR also if you want to store it in a relational database, this project is unmaintained but will give you a starting point: https://github.com/BurntSushi/nfldb
Pretty sure the basketball

Pretty sure the basketball game is on CBS and cbssports.com for those of you in the USA.

For your immediate issue I

For your immediate issue I recommend contacting a data recovery service and seeing if they can help. Sometimes deleted files can be recovered from the hard drive. It's not free but it may be your only chance.

Moving forward I think you should store your documents, pictures, videos etc in a separate drive from Windows. That way you can re-install Windows whenever you want and your documents are unaffected. Personally I have a small solid state drive that only has Windows installed on it, that's my C drive. My D drive is a larger hard drive with all my documents. After I re-install windows I just change the location of "My Documents", "My Pictures", "My Downloads" etc to their real location on the D:/ and all my files are there. You could also do this with a single drive by partitioning it into 2 smaller drives. I believe Windows only needs ~30 gb at most.

In addition you should look into a backup solution- I really like backblaze but it's cloud-based so you need a decent upload limit on your internet service. Otherwise there are other programs that can help you with backing up to your own drives.

For context, Gary's rating

For context, Gary's rating puts him at 27th in the country among "edge defenders". Among 4-3 DEs he's 16th in the country.

Not super elite, but still pretty dang good for a sophomore.

PFF

If anyone cares about PFF, here are their overall grades:

 

Bosa: 52.9 
Winovich: 38.9
Gary: 19.8
Hurst: 76.2 (!)

Unless I missed someone, Hurst is the highest graded player at any position. Baker Mayfield is next at 60.3

PFF isn't the bible or anything but damn...

 

The trouble is that if both

The trouble is that if both safeties are in the box and not respecting play action then it is almost impossible to run, it's 9 defensive players vs 7 blockers. RB is expected to make his guy miss but there's a still a free hitter. QB runs change the math a bit and force the defense to "waste" a player on the QB.

I'd like to see more QB runs, zone reads etc with O'Korn. Michigan ran a couple of them last week vs MSU but O'Korn handed it off most of the time. A few times that was the wrong read and he should have kept it but I think it's a great idea. We saw more shotgun handoffs vs Indiana, I really hope we're working on zone read, QB power etc for the PSU game, I think we'll need them to respect O'Korn's legs to have a chance to win.

The other option is to get some chunks in play action and make those safeties play back a bit more. I think O'Korn is fully capable of hitting those max protect bombs, and it's just a matter of time, but you can't run that all game. O'Korn will need to complete some intermediate throws before the safeties start thinking twice on play action.

Draws and screens are also useful, though we had an epic draw fail vs MSU and no successful RB screens this year. WR screens to DPJ vs Indiana were pretty good but the blocking was poor. A few times he would have gotten chunks if the other receiver does his (relatively easy) job of blocking DPJ's man.

Thanks for putting in the

Thanks for putting in the time to update these. Every ~6 months I get a hankerin' for some dynasty mode and really appreciate having updated rosters. Wish someone else would take the college football torch from EA.

You can provide your input

You can provide your input without personally insulting others. Do you act this way with people you disagree with in person?

Alison Brie from the TV show

Alison Brie from the TV show Community. Awesome show.

What the hell is up with that

What the hell is up with that girl screaming on the free throws? We're at home!

Off topic, but is anyone else

Off topic, but is anyone else getting French ads in WTKA podcasts today? I'm in Canada so it kind of makes sense, but I wasn't listening live, and I doubt they make several versions of the podcast with different ads. Pretty funny to hear an ad for Couche-Tard, a Quebec corner store chain, on WTKA.

I stopped going to Scout

I stopped going to Scout after they added auto-play videos on every single page, often videos that were completely irrelevant to the content on that page.

Sam is great at his job though, I'm sure he'll land somewhere nice. He's pretty generous with information on WTKA every morning too.

 

Pocket Casts is nice, does

Pocket Casts is nice, does everything I need. Much better than the built-in Play Music (I couldn't even find the mgopodcast on there.) I haven't tried any other paid app so I can't really compare those.

I went and watched the

I went and watched the replay, this is the first time he got hit:

https://streamable.com/nyg4

Wormley brings it. Sadly no replay on the broadcast.

(As an aside I humbly request MGoStaff check out Streamable if they haven't already... so much better than gifs and probably easier to make. Imagine embedding these in UFR!)

Youtube version doesn't

Youtube version doesn't skip:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_G_zg4wsIs

As others have said, Beats

As others have said, Beats are not great. They are OK, but absolutely NOT in the category of "bang for buck". Check out this summary from Marques Brownlee:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsxQxS0AdBY

I have the Audio Technica ATH-M50x that he discusses and I agree they are fantastic. They aren't cheap but are miles ahead of anything by Beats, especially when it comes to the value proposition.

Also, top 5 headphones under 200 $:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEjwyYOFwZg

So many bad stereotypes in

So many bad stereotypes in this thread. In South Korea, the top professional gamers live in shared team houses and practice for 8+ hours a day. I don’t really care if it is generally considered a “sport” or not, you have to at least acknowledge the amount of effort these dudes put in. It does require some physical skill, you have to be precise and efficient and FAST. Check out these dudes playing Starcraft: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbpCLqryN-Q

That’s nuts. Call it a sport, or don’t, it doesn’t matter. Just understand that it’s not a joke.

PSA

I saw some replies about showing this to kids, just be warned there's a scene with some nasty footage of a dead wolverine around 34 minutes in. Might want to skip that.

You've probably already

You've probably already considered this but I would definitely contribute to some kind of crowdfunding for the MGoPodcast. Maybe Patreon, where users can give small recurring payments? A world without the MGoPodcast is a world I'd rather not live in.

802.11 n can use either the

802.11 n can use either the 2.4 ghz or the 5 ghz frequencies in theory but it's not always true. Some network adapters use N but cannot use the 5ghz frequency. I would google the exact model of the laptop or network adapter to confirm it can use 5ghz. If so, you either have a problem with your router (could be configuration) or with your laptop's network adapter (drivers?)

 

 

This was streamed on YouTube.

This was streamed on YouTube. If you had problems it was on your end. At least it is still available on YouTube though.

I see lots of people thinking the Player's Tribune was streaming this directly, but no, it was on YouTube (which is a WAY smarter move than trying to stream & host on your own server.)

One thing to remember- it's

One thing to remember- it's better for both Gary and the media if his destination isn't a slam dunk. It helps to build hype and give Gary more exposure to casual fans who don't really follow recruiting. I'm sure his mother knows a little something about marketing. If you just look at the crystal balls it's pretty clear he's coming to Michigan, but then there's not much for the media to discuss and bait clicks.

Sucks that he overhyped this.

Sucks that he overhyped this. It would have been pretty cool without the Twitter buildup. Hopefully MGoFish learns from this- it's much better to under-promise and over-deliver than vice versa, especially when dealing with a dedicated group of people. We all expect and are used to this kind of marketing fluff coming from big companies, but in this context it's not acceptable and people will feel manipulated.

MGoFish will be fine regardless, I think he does good work, but this was a bad move for sure.

I think so too, I don't know

I think so too, I don't know how you could watch his tape from this year year and not think he's worth a flyer in the late rounds. I think he would be a good special teams player at worst.

If an accident happens and

If an accident happens and it's really not your fault, you have video to prove that. One interesting scenario is if you get into an accident with somebody who has the same insurance company as you, the insurance company would prefer to hold both of you partially at fault in order to increase both of your rates. Maybe that's a bit paranoid but I like the idea of having everything documented just in case.

Dash cam

If you drive often enough maybe a dash cam would be a good idea. Could save you some insurance money down the line.

No, Nate Sudfeld is a very

No, Nate Sudfeld is a very good quarterback, Michigan couldn't just sell out every play. Brandon Harris is nowhere near as good, to put it lightly. I really don't understand how LSU doesn't have anyone better.

I'm getting non-stop ads on

I'm getting non-stop ads on the website, and the Android WTKA app isn't working at all (just stays at the splash screen.)

Ugh this cameraman is awful.

Ugh this cameraman is awful. I'm raging at the screen and it's not even a close game. Hope this gets fixed.

Volume very low

Anyone else notice all these live events on the official site have very low volume? I have to crank up my speakers to hear anything. It wasn't that bad for the coach but I can barely hear the players.