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Date Title Body
07/24/2013 - 4:56pm Manziel and Mariota would

Manziel and Mariota would also qualify. I don't know if that was assumed, but it does bring the total up to 8 (the two mentioned in the previous sentence, two in the previous post, and Gardner) of the 29 accomplishing the feat in their first year. Out of curiosity, how many players on your list managed to accomplish the feat in multiple seasons or independent 5-game runs?

01/31/2013 - 5:53pm Thanks, fixed it. For all the

Thanks, fixed it. For all the times that I've read the guy's name, I should be able to spell it...

That's a very interesting observation. I'm throwing around the idea of going more in-depth on defense in the Big 10, looking more into game-by-game results. The impact of drawing two fouls on a starter would be a good place to start that analysis.

01/31/2013 - 10:09am I would think that his

I would think that his hedging ability is a contributing factor to eFG% and, in a small way, tempo. Hedging denies an opponent an immediate open look and forces them to make additional passes to exploit the mismatch out of the hedge. The first half of the Western Michigan game had some great examples of opponents successfully making those passes against Michigan's hedging, but a well-executed hedge should deny the opponent their current set and force them to reset and execute their next option. This also takes more time off of the shot clock and increases the chances of a poor choice of shot or shot clock violation.

Based on observation, I'd say that the Michigan's hedging is more effective against less athletic teams that have to shoot over the mismatch, whereas more athletic teams can drive against or back down the mismatched player before Morgan can recover.

01/31/2013 - 9:43am I actually looked at

I actually looked at regression when I started the analysis, but thought that the correlation numbers were easier to explain.

Regression shows that the four factors make for a very good predictor of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (R^2 = 0.80) and an excellent predictor of Raw Defensive Efficiency (98%!). All four factors have p values well below 0.01, and adjusted R^2 is nearly the same as R^2 for both, so not a lot of noise when considering just these four variables. Not surprising that these statistics were given such a prominent position in the tempo-free community.

There is still a clear heirarchy of importance in the regression model, though. eFG% is still most important, followed by TO%, DReb%, and FT Rate in that order, with TO% and DReb% very close to each other and FT Rate lagging behind. However, with their importance beng approximately equal, the weight given to TO% in the regression model is greater than that given to DReb%, as the average value for TO% is 10 percentage points lower than that for DReb% (which is why I went with the correlation numbers).

01/29/2013 - 4:34pm Exactly. The total % for each

Exactly. The total % for each column adds up to the number of teams in that round x 100(%). That said, it looks like there are some rounding issues that make some columns add up to slightly more or less than their required amount, but nothing unusual.

11/21/2012 - 6:51pm Agreed on Turner. That

Agreed on Turner. That buzzer-beater was the worst sports punch-to-the-gut I've endured.

11/16/2012 - 2:45pm Bates-Diop would be a big

Bates-Diop would be a big get, but he's actually the class after Irvin, Walton, and Donnal. They're all 2013. Still, great way to kick off the 2014 class and take a player away from from Purdue/Illinois.

10/31/2012 - 11:38am If Horford's knee is OK, we

If Horford's knee is OK, we might see:





Morgan (or McGary)


Burke seemed to indicate at media days that Horford was playing the 4 in their "Big" lineup, so I'm interested to see how that shakes out.

10/30/2012 - 3:22pm Verdell Jones III graduated

Not that it really affects Indiana's status as the #1 contender