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10/04/2010 - 7:33pm They also don't include

They also don't include home-field advanatge in their projections.  I don't understand that philosophy.

10/04/2010 - 1:40pm How capable is MSU of

How capable is MSU of containing our offense?  It seems like they have personnel suited to handle traditional pro-set and power offenses.  But, I'm not sure if they have enough athletes that can succeed in space. 

ND was the offense that gave them the most trouble this year.  Last year, the 3 Big Ten rushing offenses that gave them the most trouble (in terms of yards per carry) was Penn State, Purdue and Illinois.  Or, in other words, 3 offenses that liked to spread defenses out from the shotgun on a consistent basis.

Similar to our defenses under Lloyd, I kind of wonder if MSU has players and a scheme that fits very well against traditional offenses.  But, once they play a spread team and/or a team with a mobile QB, their defense will get shredded.

Is there a chance that there is some validity to my theory, or am I just being a blatant homer?  Probably a bit of both?

10/04/2010 - 1:33pm How predictive is the type of

How predictive is the type of data going forward?  Do you know of any research on red zone offenses? 

It would seem that red zone efficiency would be victim to small sample size issues.  Its great in looking back and seeing how great we have been doing in this particular stat.  But, how repeatable is this?

10/04/2010 - 1:27pm "Starting field position for

"Starting field position for the opposition after our kickoff remains at the 29 yard line (slightly better than average)."

 

Where do you get this data from?  Link?

 

How about field position in general?  I'd be interested to see what our average starting field position is on O and D and where that ranks nationally.

10/03/2010 - 1:31am Hard as it may be to believe,

Hard as it may be to believe, we allowed 6.6 yards a play against Indiana last year.  This year, we allowed 5.8.  The total yardage is deceiving b/c of how many plays they ran.  Some of that was b/c they didn't do a good enough job of getting off the field.  The other part of that was that our offense didn't really have any time consuming drives.  We either scored quick, or had to punt pretty quickly.  I'd expect that Indiana probably has a better offense than they did last year and it could be argued that our defense played better against them this year than we had last year.  That is one positive, I guess.

09/27/2010 - 10:48pm Scoring defense and scoring

Scoring defense and scoring offense isn't necessarily reflective of the strengths of those 2 units.  It includes a lot of other variables (special teams play, turnovers, average starting field position, number of plays a game for both sides of the ball, etc) that play a role.  A team that prevents points at a premium rate may actually have a better offense and special teams unit than defensive unit. 

For example, the offense may rarely turn the ball over, consistently drive the ball down the field and the special teams may consistently excel in hidden yardage and combine with the teams offense to give their defense much easier starting field position than the majority of defenses face.  As a result, they would be expected to allow fewer points anyway. Additionally, the overall strength of a team could play a role.  If a team is rarely trailing and often leads by a wide margin, then the opponent will likely have to become a one dimensional offense and throw much more often than they would prefer too.  This will make it easier for the defense to defend and also play a role in the number of points they allow.

11/10/2009 - 10:42pm How do you compute a pythag

How do you compute a pythag record for football? Anyone know the formula?

11/03/2009 - 10:18pm We have 23 scholarships to

We have 23 scholarships to give out. 20 are currently verbal commitments. Cone and Patterson probably won't be back. Wright might not be either. That would give us 5-6 more to give out, at least. We should be able to sign 25 no problem, and have the ability to go up to as much as 28 if need be/if we want to.

10/02/2009 - 4:04pm Great stuff. A weekly

Great stuff. A weekly feature of this would be outstanding.

09/29/2009 - 7:26pm So, maybe our defense is not

So, maybe our defense is not as bad as is commonly perceived?

09/29/2009 - 12:39am Great, great stuff.
I am

Great, great stuff.

I am curious, though, on 2 things...

There has been new information coming out at Football Outsiders that suggests that QB's should take some blame for sacks. Why is that not part of your ranking for QB's?

And, catch rate is pretty constant to different receivers and the guys at Football Outsiders believe that targeted receivers should receive some of the blame for incomplete passes thrown their way. Why is that not part of your ranking for WR's?

I'm just curious more than anything. It sounds like you come from a sabermetric background and that goes against new saber research on football.

09/22/2009 - 9:00pm http://www.advancednflstats.c

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html

09/21/2009 - 9:04am why would he? He doesn't

why would he? He doesn't coach anymore and he can still add victories to his career win total.

09/20/2009 - 12:57pm fumble recoveries are random,

fumble recoveries are random, though. B/c of that, I think all fumbles need to be calculated in the formula and not just lost ones.

09/18/2009 - 1:31pm This is true to an extent,

This is true to an extent, and no one stat will tell the whole story. But, at least in the NFL, catch rate is pretty consistent for receivers regardless of the QB. I imagine that translates pretty well to college, as well.

Perhaps there should be a category that looks at Matthews difficult catches, but there should also be a category that looks at the amount of incomplete passes thrown his way.

09/18/2009 - 9:13am It could be argued that

It could be argued that Moosman is our best lineman. We need to get him back and healthy for the State game, at the latest.

09/18/2009 - 9:07am Bingo. Catch rate, yards per

Bingo. Catch rate, yards per attempt while thrown in a CB's direction, TD's allowed, etc. are also more telling than tackles, INT's and PBU.

09/18/2009 - 8:18am that becomes subjective,

that becomes subjective, though.

I guess a "hands rating" could be needed. Catch rate, in general, is a good stat for WR's.

09/17/2009 - 2:00am small sample size is a

small sample size is a problem in the early going. The glitches get sorted out as the year wears on.

09/16/2009 - 11:16pm So, essentially, the trouble

So, essentially, the trouble is finding out what values to give to touchdowns. I think sacks should also be discounted for b/c new info is coming out that suggests that QB's have a lot more ability to avoid sacks than we originally thought/is commonly believed. I think setting up a team for a FG try should also be included (not sure how that would be possible to account for, though).

Other things... we would need to account for the strength of the defense the QB played and the drops his WR's had.

09/16/2009 - 7:04pm I think a cool feature would

I think a cool feature would be to add like a "stats" tab and keep a running track of a player's +- throughout the year.

09/16/2009 - 3:27pm If there have been any

If there have been any studies done on the importance of touchdowns, first downs, yards per completions, etc. and the potential penalties that come with interceptions and negative yardage through sacks then that would make any formula that much better. Otherwise, throwing random numbers in there to multiply things by in any formula is a cause for it to be picked apart.

If anyone is familiar with sabermetric thinking in baseball, then what I would propose is a formula similar to the one used for wOBA. Find out how much a touchdown contributes to a win, or first downs, or yards per completion and how much interceptions contribute to a loss, etc. and then calculate a formula off that. It is certainly possible, but it would take a lot of research.

09/16/2009 - 12:10pm I had 6-6 as our floor, with

I had 6-6 as our floor, with 9-3 as our ceiling. Split the difference and I had us at 7-5 or 8-4 depending on injuries, random variance/good luck or bad luck. I'm going to stick with 8-4 going forward. I thought we'd beat ND before the year so that game did not change my expectations much.

The key is going to be Tate's health/development, and limiting injuries on the defensive side of the ball.

09/16/2009 - 11:41am One thing to look for this

One thing to look for this year with regards to underclassmen is a lot more of them leaving with the uncapped 2010 NFL season and the potential rookie salary limit in 2011. If Warren is close to first round status, he may take a chance to cash in on the last opportunity that NFL rookies will have the capability to do so.

09/16/2009 - 10:19am I think this could be another

I think this could be another flaw in the stat, then. Unless I'm reading it wrong, it seems like they threw some random numbers together to multiply by.

One of my favorite stats for baseball is wOBA. It looks at mounds of historical data and applied values to walks, HR's, singles, etc. based on how important they are for a hitter in creating runs. If similar research could be done and assign appropriate numbers to short completions/long completions, or interceptions or touchdown passes or the amount of yards thrown for, etc. then I think the stat would be much improved.

Just in general, I think there is a need for more advanced stats in CFB. It would be much harder to do than baseball b/c of how complex football is but I do think the Football Outsiders have done a good job so far with NFL data. Catch rate, for example, appears to be a good advanced stat for receivers. It is hard to design stats for offensive lineman, but rush yards in their general direction/sacks allowed/pancake blocks/percentage of times not allowing a sack could be a place to start for a possible formula. Corners and safeties allowing catches in their zones could be analyzed, in addition to their pass breakups, int's, tackles/missed tackles. A running back's ability to block is probably able to be quantified in some way. In addition, breaking tackles/yards after contact, yards per carry, "long runs," consistent positive yardage, touchdowns, fumbles, catch rate, etc. could be a place to start for a potential formula for a RB. For D Lineman, you would need to look at how many yards were allowed rushing in their general direction, pass hurries, sacks, tipped balls, how many times they were pancaked, tackles for loss, etc. For linebackers, missed tackles/tackles in open space could probably be quantified. I guess you could also look at how many rush yards were accumulated in their zone on a particular play/ pass yards were accumulated in their zone per play. There would probably also be a way to factor in what player they were assigned to cover during a particular way, and you could apply all that to a formula with tackles for loss, tipped balls, assisted and unassisted tackles, interceptions, fumbles caused, etc.

Just thinking out loud and rambling. I do think, eventually, stats will be taken to the next level in football.

09/16/2009 - 12:41am How did they come up with

How did they come up with those exact numbers to multiply in the formula. Example: why is a touchdown pass multiplied by 330 and not 430? Why are yards multiplied by 8.4? Etc...

09/14/2009 - 12:32pm If there are no rate stats

If there are no rate stats included in the formula, like yards per completion, or yards per attempt, etc. then that is an incredibly flawed stat.

There was an article on Football Outsiders that showed a statistically significant correlation between rate stats and future success. If the passing efficiency rating only looks at cumulative stats then it is an even worse stat than I already thought it was.

09/14/2009 - 9:23am Pass efficiency is not the be

Pass efficiency is not the be all-end all stats for QB's like it is sometimes used as.

09/13/2009 - 12:15pm Tip of the cap to ya, Chris.

Tip of the cap to ya, Chris.

09/12/2009 - 11:41pm Not gonna lie... there

Not gonna lie... there passing game is the real deal. Clausen has an NFL arm and some electrifying playmakers on the outside with a veteran o-line. They are going to light up the scoreboard quite a bit this year.

I'm taking ND over MSU.

09/01/2009 - 1:30pm He literally knows absolutely

He literally knows absolutely nothing about baseball. Nothing. He still holds RBI's in high regard, places very little value on defense, does not think Verlander is an Ace, thought Porcello was done awhile ago, etc. He's pretty good with football but the man knows nothing about baseball. Might as well let my aunt talk about the Tigers and MLB. She would be able to provide just as much useful commentary.

08/13/2009 - 6:25pm Podsednik is awful. If Rios

Podsednik is awful. If Rios does not replace him in CF and instead takes bats away from Dye, Quentin, etc. then that pick up does nothing for them this season.

08/13/2009 - 1:43am Helmuth is gone, as well.

Helmuth is gone, as well.

08/12/2009 - 7:48pm They are both gone.

They are both gone. Basically official, now.

How many schollies does that give us now?

08/12/2009 - 7:46pm Helmuth and Evans are

Helmuth and Evans are definitely gone.

08/08/2009 - 6:23pm Considering that he would be

Considering that he would be overrated if somebody considered him an ace... no.

08/08/2009 - 2:42pm Since May 13th he has been.

Since May 13th he has been. If we count the whole season, he would not be in that discussion. Bobby Seay has had a better season than Lyon.

08/06/2009 - 12:48am Batting average, "Gold

Batting average, "Gold Gloves," stolen bases will not help your argument. You have to dig deeper than that.

Otherwise, this won't be a fair fight. We should be beyond the traditional statistics at this point.

Jeter has been a good offensive shortstop. But, his "defense" is incredibly overrated.

His UZR is the best it has ever been this season. But, in the years he won the Gold Glove, he had UZR's of -14.3, -6.8, and -15.3. He was one of the worst defensive SS in the game in the years he won a Gold Glove.

Of course, Michael Young won one last year and Adam Everett has never won one. I guess I should not be surprised.

08/05/2009 - 11:07pm Ouch. And, he's been one of

Ouch. And, he's been one of the worst defensive SS in the league over the course of his career.

08/05/2009 - 4:20pm Question: If LeBron and Kobe

Question: If LeBron and Kobe switched teams last season and LeBron had Pau, Odom, Ariza, etc. to work with and Kobe had ___ to work with... who wins the NBA title?

Kobe had better teammates. That hardly makes him the better player.

08/05/2009 - 4:15pm No, they do not have much

No, they do not have much value when evaluating how a player has performed.

It is all about OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRAA, RC, VORP, tRA, FIP, xFIP, K/BB, BABIP, LOB %, HR/FB %, LD %, UZR, WPA and WAR in today's baseball world.

08/05/2009 - 1:37pm Derek Jeter is far and away

Derek Jeter is far and away one of the most overrated defensive SS ever. How he ever won one Gold Glove (let alone, 3) is beyond me.

08/05/2009 - 1:34pm Stealing bases is actually

Stealing bases is actually overrated.

So too is batting average, RBI's, HR's and a pitchers ERA and Win-Loss record.

08/05/2009 - 1:33pm Offense is only one part of

Offense is only one part of the game. He is also one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball and costs his teams quite a few runs when he is out there.

08/05/2009 - 12:13am Erin Andrews?

Erin Andrews?

08/04/2009 - 3:53pm My list begins and ends with

My list begins and ends with Tom Brady.

08/04/2009 - 12:17am Thames and good fielder

Thames and good fielder should never go in the same sentence unless it is sarcasm.

08/01/2009 - 1:32am Great, great move for them in

Great, great move for them in 2010, 2011 and 2012. At best, he gives them 5-6 starts this year. Even then, expecting a pitcher to come off a long term injury and pitch well is a risky assumption. So, for this season, the move does not concern me much. In the following years, though...

07/26/2009 - 11:32pm welcome to MgoBlog!

welcome to MgoBlog!

07/26/2009 - 10:47pm He got a little lucky tonight

He got a little lucky tonight as a couple of our hard hit balls were hit right at the Sox defenders, but he had a good night. I think he is going into the bullpen now for the Sox to be their second lefty out of the pen.