Your Revised Season Predictions

Submitted by hart20 on October 9th, 2011 at 4:29 AM

Well, we're now halfway through the season, sitting pretty at 6-0. I think it's safe to say that the defense has outperformed even the most wildly optimistic expectations,while the offense is either mind-blowingly beautiful or mind-blowingly frustrating.

Next week is the first true test on the road (Sorry, NW. 45% Michigan fans makes it a neutral game), against an MSU team with the O-line equivalent of our secondary from last year (That's not a good thing for MSU, in case your memories of last year's secondary are being repressed). Purdue is well, Purdue and Iowa isn't looking that strong. Illinois is either great or decent, depending how you look at them and Nebraska is.....confusing, to say the least.  To finish the season we get OSU at home, who's learning the painful lesson that karma is, in fact, a bitch.

So, fellow MGoBloggers, what are your revised season predictions? And what'd you predict at the beginning of the season?

I predicted 10-2 at the beginning of the season, and I'm going to change it to 11-1. Do I think the team is truly an elite team this year? Not really. Do I think the schedule will make the team look like an elite team? Yes. 

Comments

BLUE HIKER

October 9th, 2011 at 4:46 AM ^

Michigan will not be able to win all the remaining games on their schedule with 3 turnovers per game.  I will go with 10-2,  11-1 is possible if the turnovers are eliminated.  Either scenario could lead to an additional loss to Wisconsin in the Championship game.  Wisconsin just looks so much better than everyone else in the B1G.

Edit: Before the season, I thought 9-3.  Was hoping for a split in the ND & MSU games, did not think Illinois would be a problem, and thought Nebraska & Ohio would be much better than they appear right now.

Mr Mxyzptlk

October 9th, 2011 at 12:20 PM ^

I'm glad you're a better prognsticator than I am.  I thought we were going to be lucky to get to 8-4 and would've been satisfied with 7-5 considering the coaching change and dramatic changes to our offensive and defensive schemes.

Now, I will be dissappointed if we don't get to 9-3 and think 10-2 is very doable.

Heh, I also thought Hoke was a mistake and was pissed when Harbaugh gave us the cold shoulder.  I couldn't have been more wrong about that too.

Noleverine

October 9th, 2011 at 4:44 AM ^

I had predicted 10-2 at the beginning of the season, simply because of the schedule.  I predicted losses to ND and Nebraska, and making it to the Big 10 Championship game.  People called me crazy.

Now, in my maize-colored glasses, I am seeing an 11-1 finish.  I am not sure yet who we lose to, but despite likely being favored in most of our games, I think we will stumble a little.  I just hope it's not OSU.

We make it to the Big 10 championship and play a close game but ultimately lose to Wisconsin.  Wisconsin goes on to the Nat'l Championship and Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl.

rbgoblue

October 9th, 2011 at 8:39 AM ^

The problem with these predictions is that they never assume we give a game away or lose one we shouldn't.  At some point, we will lose a game that we are favored to win because our mistakes will do us in, or our opponent will play out of their minds.

From a statistical standpoint, if we are favored to win 4 games, each with a 60% chance of winning, the cumulative chance to go 4-0 is not 60%, in fact it is significantly lower.

For me, before the season I was predicting 7-5/8-4.  Having gotten through ND, SDSU, and NW, three games against solid opponents, I will raise my prediction to 9-3. finishing 3-3 down the stretch to go 5-3 in the B1G.  Of our remaining opponents, Purdue is the lock, but of MSU, Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, and OSU, whether we go 2-3 or 3-2 will determine our season.  In either case, I would consider it a success, exceding my expectations.

Noleverine

October 9th, 2011 at 8:49 AM ^

I don't see any game as a guaranteed loss, so I am accounting for "giving one away."  But you also have to account for games that we shouldn't win but do (ND).  I had us losing to ND and Nebraska, but Nebraska isn't as daunting as I thought.  I think we give away one or two we should win, but I do think we match up well against the upcoming schedule.

DeepBlue83

October 9th, 2011 at 11:59 AM ^

At the start of the season, I predicted 8-4 as the most likely outcome, but having gotten by ND, SDSU and NW with wins, I think we have a better shot at 9-3 now.   We still have weaknesses and an erratic passing game that are bound to bite us sooner or later.  On top of that, we're thin on the lines, and as the season goes on, guys getting dinged up is going to reduce our effectiveness.  I'm projecting wins over Purdue, Iowa and OSU and losses to MSU (unfortunately), Nebraska and Illinois, for 9-3 overall and 5-3 BT.   We've certainly shown improvement, but with the talent we have on the board, there's only so much better we can be from week to week.

9-3 and a nice NYD bowl would be a great result.

nmajali

October 9th, 2011 at 4:49 AM ^

Well, I watched the LSU - Florida game yesterday and suddenly realized what type of team we are aspiring to be like (wow, LSU has some monsters everywhere). So I would like to do some backward induction, if we play a big SEC team for the bowl game all I can say is good luck Blue.
As for our remaining schedule, MSU and OSU are always toss ups regardless of record, the game tends to bring out the best and worst of both teams, so let's say 1 and 1. Purdue and Iowa could be the softer games, let's take those 2. Illinois looks better than OSU and equal to Nebraska let's say 1 and 1 Illinois and Nebraska. And if We do make it to the Big10 Championshionship, my GOD have mercy on our souls if the Badgers stay as consistent as they are currently..
So 10-2 is still the logical prediction with a really wide open door for 9-3 or 11-1. With a two faced team in Michigan u really don't know wwhich team will show up Any given Saturday.. Although my hopes stay high for a perfect season, I've seen some hints of luck go our way and u never know, some wind there, someone slips here, a fumble or an INT and that could make the biggest difference for our boys.. In all the schedule is softer than some of the other years and I am hopeful.. Let's enjoy the perfect record for now, Go Blue

jmblue

October 9th, 2011 at 11:47 PM ^

Just so we're clear: the MSU game is not "always a tossup."  It may be this year, but that isn't normal.  Prior to 2008, we had won 30 of the previous 38 meetings.  If the game's a tossup, that's a sign that we aren't at our usual historical level.

 

bklein09

October 9th, 2011 at 4:54 AM ^

Not trying to be negative here, but the only game that I feel REALLY good about is Purdue. 

That leaves MSU, Illinois, Iowa, Neb, and OSU which are all toss-ups IMO. 

I think we will win 2 or 3 of those games.

So I predict either 9-3 or 10-2 I guess, but even that sounds unreal to me. I guess its all the darkness over the past 3 seasons that has me so leary. 

I'll make my final prediction 8-4. That way I am very likely to be pleasantly surprised!

Noleverine

October 9th, 2011 at 4:58 AM ^

At what point does the fanbase get over the hangover from the past 3 years?  After State? OSU?  I completely understand the trepidation; I don't want to be disappointed either.  But if we go 10-2 this season, do we start talking about it being a down year for the Big 10, and say "just wait until we play ____"?  Or do we realize this team was underperforming as opposed to being bad?

Vasav

October 9th, 2011 at 5:25 AM ^

This question to me means, when can I say, "Michigan is back!" There are two parts to it - one is becoming a perennial top-ten team, and the other is being competitive in the rivalry.

Ohio is the key that'll make me relax. The last time we beat Ohio I was a senior in HS in New Jersey, worrying about my big game against a cross-town rival. I wasn't even positive I was going to college yet. As a real fan of this program (and I've become almost unhealthy in my love for Michigan), I've never experienced a victory over Ohio. When that one happens, only then will I say (and feel), "Michigan is back."

But other than my emotional response to Ohio, I could see us being a 10 or 11 win team and me still not being convinced we're a top ten team. These last three weeks I feel progressively more comfortable drinking the Kool-Aid - if we beat State I'll be convinced we belong in the Top 25. If we beat Purdue and Iowa, and are sitting at 9-0 against a possibly undefeated Illinois, then I'll be convinced we're pretty daggone good. But at the national level we want to be? Not unless we make a statement in either Indianapolis (as a 10 win team - meaning that beating Wiscy isn't just a fluke) or in our bowl games (which is probably against a BCS team or an SEC team).

But over the hangover? It's not been a 3 year hangover for me. Since I've been a fan, there've been three times where I thought we "should" have won the game. This streak has gotten into my system. It's all I've really known as an M fan. And until it ends, I won't be convinced we're back to where we want to be.

Yost Ghost

October 9th, 2011 at 9:56 AM ^

be measured against their chief rivals. That is the way of things. As I've said before we can start having the conversation about this team being "back" if they go 6-0 into Spartan Stadium and beat MSU. Of course that also means that beating tsio as well puts emphasis on UM's comeback bid. I predicted 8-4 with a possible 10-2. Now I think it's 9-3 with a possible 11-1.

Mr Mxyzptlk

October 9th, 2011 at 12:36 PM ^

"At what point does the fanbase get over the hangover from the past 3 years?"

Great question.  And to answer, I honestly don't know.  I will be over the last three years if we don't end up having a complete meltdown in the second half of the season the way we did last year and the year before.  So I would say finishing 9-3 or better, beating either MSU or tSIO and a New Years Day bowl game victory would allow me to move on and let the past be the past..

nmajali

October 9th, 2011 at 4:59 AM ^

U know what, that is why I left the 9-3 option open, honestly no clue who will win our games every single week, u get a surprise each week.. But u have to admit, Michigan is actually getting better as a team week by week, and they are getting better during games (evident in better second halves than first halves) so let's hope for the best..

victors2000

October 9th, 2011 at 8:29 AM ^

The rest of the season can go a variety of ways as far as I'm concerned, but the one thing I do see is that we will WALLOP the buckeyes at the end of the year, bank on it. Hell hath no fury like besting your cheating rival after they've beat you 9 out of the last 10 games. Or is it 8? :) Whatever the NCAA counts.

I am very concerned about the Sparties, they are good and they are hateful. That game will be the barometer for the rest of the season; I will feel more comfortable with a prediction for the rest of the year after that game.

At worst, I see us going 2-3. My most guttiest feeling is 2-3/3-2; I think that is fair and anything better than that I see as frosting on the cake.

 

jabberwock

October 9th, 2011 at 12:51 PM ^

on Sparty, they have been a good barometer for many years.

Being competitive with Ohio and winning our fair share is expected, but so is consistently beating MSU (often handily).  That hasn't happened for 3 years.

I'm much more worried about MSU than any other team this season because it's the one team that has a laser-like focus on trying to beat us every year.  Even with a porous O line Cousins can still pick us apart.  Their D is legit, and if they key on stoping the run/Denard they'll have a good chance to beat us.  Them getting an early lead would be deadly.

Purdue? - NW light.  Don't screw the pooch w/turnovers and we should coast.
Iowa? - solid, but no fear
The Fighting Zooks? - as good as anyone in our division, especially with Scsheuellhaaasee
Nebraska? - Good, but mortal, the closest mirror to Michigan IMHO.
Ohio - Very beatable, no matter who is eligible.  

My original prediction was 8-4 (I think).  If we beat MSU the sky's the limit! 11-1. 12-0?
Lose, and we'll have to see just what this team is made of (8-4?).

DeepBlue83

October 9th, 2011 at 12:03 PM ^

but the Hawkeyes are looking very beatable.  I think we will have an edge on OSU, from an emotional standpoint if nothing else, and if their QB situation is still a mess, they're toast.  Don't know what the story on Miller is yet, but if they have to play Bauserman, stick a fork in the nuts.

Vasav

October 9th, 2011 at 5:32 AM ^

In the above scenario, I'd bet Wiscy is headed to the BCS Title game. If OU is undefeated, then I'll say we'll be the next BCS at-large team, headed to the Sugar Bowl (since I think they'll have the first pick for losing the #1 team in the country)

Noleverine

October 9th, 2011 at 5:42 AM ^

If you had said that before the season started, I would have peed a little bit in my pants.

I think any fan would be very happy with that scenario.  I know I would be ecstatic.

Vasav

October 9th, 2011 at 7:46 AM ^

I believe in this team and I'll never bet against them - and committing myself to peeing in my pants is betting against them.

If it happens on its own, I wouldn't be surprised. Or that disappointed.

Zone Left

October 9th, 2011 at 6:06 AM ^

Man, I don't know about that. I feel like Alabama and LSU are so much better than everyone in the SEC that the winner of their game is probably going undefeated. If Oklahoma is undefeated, they'll get the second slot and Wisconsin will get snubbed and sent to the Rose Bowl. 

However, I do think a two loss (or better) Michigan team will definitely get a BCS bid. I'm just terrified that Michigan will end up playing the loser of Alabama and LSU. They're still a couple years from being ready to beat a team like that.

Vasav

October 9th, 2011 at 7:45 AM ^

Realistically, I expect big things out of this team next year. We lose Molk, Woolfolk, Koger, Van Bergen, Martin....anyone else? Obviously those guys will hurt, but the offense should be better after a year of getting used to Borges. While the D-line is losing two huge contributors, Avery, Countess, Floyd, Kovacs, Hawthorne, Demens, Ryan - that sounds like a good backfield on defense.

I expect Michigan to be very competitive with Bame - heck, forget that, you know what? I expect Michigan to BEAT Bame in Jerryworld next year. After that yes, the schedule is challenging - so what? I expect seniro Denard and co. to get us the B1G championship. And they're goign to win it as a TEAM.

Yea, LSU, Bama, and Wiscy are scary good this year. I expect them to be afraid of us next year - and I don't think it's an unreasonable expecation.

Don

October 9th, 2011 at 8:01 AM ^

are going to be "afraid" of us next year, or any year. That doesn't mean we can't beat them, but the notion those squads are going to be pissing in their pants at playing a team from the north is dumb. They are fast, talented, and cocky as hell.

Vasav

October 9th, 2011 at 9:44 AM ^

Yes Bama is very good. And you guys are right they wont fear us one bit. But frankly,they should. I don't see why, with 9 returning starters on a very good offense, and 8-9 returning starters on a better-than-expected D, why should we fear them? If 2012, with a senior Denard and a veteran O line, isnt when we make our run, when is it?
<br>
<br>As for "fast d lineman," yes they're athletic. But so is our o line. As cliche as it sounds, it does all start up front-and I'm very confident in our o line. I'll be worried about our d-but 2012 sets up for possibly our most complete team since 2006.
<br>
<br>If we aren't as good as Bama in 2012, then we'll be lucky to ever compete with them.

Vasav

October 9th, 2011 at 9:06 PM ^

multiple times this season. The SEC duo are a step above everyone else - I don't think OU is of the same caliber this year, and I think Wiscy might be but really doesn't have the schedule to prove it one way or another. But I don't think 2011 = 2012. I'm okay with eating crow in Dallas next September/

bluebyyou

October 9th, 2011 at 5:21 AM ^

I had thought 8-4 was the best case scenario and now I am thinking a realistic 9-3.  We still have a suspect passing game that is continuing to turn the ball over at a frightening pace.  Every single team will stack the box from now on and and dare us to throw, and the quality of the defenses we see will be better than what we have seen before.  

Now if we should beat little brother next week, my sense of hope will be rekindled, but they will have by far the best defense we will have seen this year.

Don

October 9th, 2011 at 7:38 AM ^

Losses to MSU, Iowa, Illinois, and Neb. The defenses we're going to see in the first two are better than we've seen so far, and the offenses in the last two are better than we've seen so far. Plus, the first three are on the road, which is not an easy thing for a team that's still so young in so many positions on defense.

Denard is what he is: an incredible playmaker who will also turn the ball over at an alarming rate, which will kill us at least twice.

Unfortunately, our apparently rejuvenated running game other than Denard appears to have been a function of playing crappy teams, and that's also going to be a problem from here on out.

Feat of Clay

October 9th, 2011 at 8:29 AM ^

Yes, I'm worried about MSU for sure. Not just a strong defense, but a team that's totally obsessive about us and has been preparing for us from the start. And a bye week beforehand to boot.