Year Three Curse Strikes Again
One of the big reasons I was excited about Michigan hiring Jim Harbaugh is I saw the deficiencies this team would have come year three. I figured that like other elite coaches, he would be able to conjure up a decent season in a year where the team wasn't expected to do much. Something like 9-3 with a victory over a rival.
Instead, for the third straight regime after Lloyd Carr's retirement, Michigan football's year three was abysmal after a promising start:
2010: Michigan starts 5-0, loses at home to Michigan State, ends up 7-6. Rodriguez fired. While the offense and record improved, the defense is the worst in the program's history. Losses to both Michigan State and Ohio State. Recruiting ends up 30th in the country.
2013: Michigan starts 5-0, loses a blunderfest on the road to a mediocre Penn State team, gets blown out by Michigan State, finishes 7-6 with losses to both Michigan State and Ohio State. Hoke is retained, recruiting ends up 20th. TBH, its crazy to me how this season matches the beats of 2017-18, from the inexplicable first loss, to the road blowout loss to a rival, to the 0-3 finish with a closer than expected game against OSU and a disappointing bowl performance. Yeah, the circumstances were different, but the highs and lows were almost identical.
2017: Michigan starts 4-0, loses a blunderfest at home to Michigan State. Gets to 8-2 before losing three straight to finish out the season 8-5. Losses to both MSU and OSU. Bowl loss to a mediocre South Carolina team following a shocking collapse. Recruiting finishes up 19th (at the moment).
The difference? Unlike the previous 2 regimes, I believe that Michigan is well set for success following this disappointment. A very good defense returns everyone. It would not be at all surprising for them to compete at a 2016 level.
On offense...all I can say is look at the 2011 defense. That unit went from the worst in the country to good in a single year. While Greg Mattison deserves credit, undoubtedly one of the biggest factors in this turnaround was the fact that Michigan was no longer starting converted wideouts and true freshmen 2 stars in the secondary. With a little luck (aka Shea Patterson's eligibility coming through), next year should be a very good year*. And if that is the case, then I think we will look at 2017 as a blip on a very successful tenure.
(*The flip side, of course, is that Patterson is ineligible, neither other QB pans out, Drevno really does suck and the OL remains as bad as it was last year and the defense is more 2017 than 2016. Another bad year (8-4 with losses to OSU, MSU and ND) results in more recruiting misery setting up Harbaugh for a make or break year 5. Hopefully it does not come to that.)
February 7th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
Ray Vinopal was starting as a 2-star true freshman because there was so little experience on Michigan's defense, especially in the secondary.
February 7th, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 2:04 PM ^
But they did turn around the very next year. That's why I think the sky is falling attitude toward the offense is overblown.
Also, Rodriguez's defense did get better his first few years at Arizona when he brought in a real DC.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
featured freshman Kyle Kalis and freshman Erik Magnuson as guards. That is a recipe for disaster and it was a disaster. Our interior line was historically bad. Couldn't pick up a blitz. We could not do anything about that A-gap blitz MSU ran against us, and we were pretty bad running the ball.
Sure, we had experience at some positions. We had more experienced WRs that year (Gallon and Funchess) and great OTs so our passing game was a lot better (32nd compared to 86th in 2017 in S&P+) and our offense overall was better.
But our defense was mediocre. Hoke was playing with all his young guys. RichRod didn't leave him any Chase Winovich's or Mo Hurst's or anyone. In fact, one of the best players RR left was Blake Countess but he was ill-suited for the system we ran. Having Greg Mattison stay aboard and running a mostly similar defense helped the transition from Hoke to Harbaugh a lot.
And keep in mind, in 2013 as in 2017, we weren't a horrible team. We had a winning record. We played well against OSU at home. It was a very similar season as the OP pointed out.
February 7th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 1:50 PM ^
And yet, despite almost identically similar situations, all three coaches ended up with roughly the same level of results, right down to underwhelming recruiting finishes.
I just think its interesting.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 3:12 PM ^
whose best season still wasn't comparable to Hoke or Harbaugh's worst seasons in three years, respectively.
But in terms of Ws and Ls in first three years and first three recruiting classes, Hoke and Harbaugh are pretty similar.
I will say, the advanced metrics have liked Harbaugh's first three years a little better than Hoke's as Hoke was a bit on the lucky side for his Ws and Ls whereas Harbaugh was a little more on the "unlucky" side (I hope).
February 7th, 2018 at 3:21 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 4:41 PM ^
I posted this below so will put it here too: adjusting for SoS and margins and all that, Hoke's third year we were 37th in the country in F+, in Harbaugh's we were 30th. We were a better team last year than we were in 2013, but objectively not by much. Comparisons are fair.
It was a really weird year, for sure. We had those brutally close games against Akron and Uconn (but this year wasn't much better against Cinci and Air Force). But then we'd have games in which our offense was unstoppable like against ND, IU and OSU (!!!) Yeah, that meltdown against Nebraska was terrible.
February 7th, 2018 at 1:51 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 2:10 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 2:45 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 4:26 PM ^
if the "Unacceptable" "Torch and Pitchfork" crowd continue down the Fire Harbaugh! path and the '19 class suffers.
February 7th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
I'm just going to slam my balls in this drawer a few times.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:05 PM ^
If you've been doing your coke right you shouldnt feel a thing anyway
February 7th, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
Is UM being punished by a higher power? For what?
It certainly feels that way.
February 7th, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 2:20 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 1:51 PM ^
Wait, we didn't have a good season in 2017? First I've heard of that.
February 7th, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
I know the post was fairly long, but at the bottom I did lay out that I thought things will be better going forward.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 2:53 PM ^
Want him fired? Any idea who is better?
February 7th, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
I think they just misfired on replacements in a year where they could have really used stability. Losing Wheatley and Fisch probably screwed the offense more than it would have had the team been laden with seniors.
February 7th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
This "mystery" can be explained fairly easily. All three years we won (while looking quite shaky) against bad non-conference opposition, then struggled when we played better competition in league play.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^
So is the conclusion that coaching is overrated, because Harbaugh wasn't able to meaningfully outperform Hoke or Rodriguez (and probably underperformed tbh...at least those teams beat 8 win squads)?
And how does this apply to the similar finishes in recruiting?
February 7th, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
8-5 overall and 5-4 in the toughest division in football is still better than what RR/Hoke did (7-6 / 3-5 for both), and that was despite having to play three different QBs. If Speight had started the whole year, as erratic as he was, we probably would have won another game or two.
February 7th, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^
because it wasn't the best division in football this season (hello Rutgers and Maryland!). Hoke had arguably a tougher conference schedule that year, if you really dig into it. MSU and OSU were better teams than they were this year (and we had to go to EL that year). We had to go to Kinnick. We played Nebraska (when they were solid) and Northwestern. Far fewer gimmes than we had this year.
In any case, adjusting for SoS and margins and all that, Hoke's third year we were 37th in the country in F+, in Harbaugh's we were 30th. We were a better team last year than we were in 2013, but objectively not by much. Comparisons are fair.
QB situation is a factor for sure, and that's a big reason why there should be more optimism about 2018 than 2014. If we can find a QB, and put him in better situations (looking at you, offensive coaches), we could easily have a much better year on offense than last year.
Although the OL is about as scary as it was going into 2014.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^
Can't satisfy anyone around here. Curses? What the shit is this?
February 7th, 2018 at 2:06 PM ^
if starting upperclassmen and coaching can improve things. I'm not wasting my time with curses or other forms of complaining. The answers start arriving on Sep. 1. See you then.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:11 PM ^
Everyone knows where we're at, onward to spring practice and then the long summer of hope. One day our competant QB ship will come in and likely already has, lets just see.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:20 PM ^
I know this may be a hot take but I think that recruiting suffered this year because of the lack of efficient recruiters on the trail. I think Harbaugh got too bogged down in the idea of getting "NFL" coaches and thought that would take care of itself. He seemed to remedy that by solidifying the recruiting department with Dudek and Magee (who I think will have a huge impact in 2019) and hiring more dogs on the recruiting trail. I happen to think he's more aware of the issues than we here give him credit for.
That being said, I think he does need to cut ties with Drevno. Not because of his coaching necessarily (I actually think he's a good coach, just has been dealt a bad hand), but because of his lack of recruiting ability.
Obviously I'm not happy with where things are at but I think with the right QB and an older core of the team, which we did not have at all in 2017, we can make make some noise in 2018. I refuse to believe that Harbaugh is just going to roll over and just say fuck it.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 2:23 PM ^
Meant a fart in our family.
Tooter meant the fartist.
So i guess that you scoot away after tooting.
Pretty much sums up the OP.........come on man.......haver a lttle confidence in Harbaugh and his staff. We would have been a contender the last couple of years if only we had a competent quarterback. It seemed that way last year but our starter was injured and the backups simply weren't ready to win a few very close games.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 2:41 PM ^
Time will tell but all recruiting classes are a crap shoot. Granted this wasn't a great year but it will be imperative for Michigan to turn things around this year and beat some rivals. Other wise, recruiting will continue to be lackluster, imo.
February 7th, 2018 at 3:26 PM ^
February 7th, 2018 at 3:35 PM ^
his senior year at Michigan, especially in the Orange Bowl. And he was pretty good the year before. We just didn't play him enough.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^
Year three curse? This is the first I am hearing of it.
- Under Rich Rod year 3 was his best season, continuing an improvement trend.
- Under Hoke year 1 was great, year two was a step down. Year 3 was worse and year 4 was even worse continuing the trend.
- Under Harbaugh, you know the deal. Good season, great season, bad season. No ryhme or reason unless you look at the roster make-ups.
There is no curse.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:43 PM ^
this thread is why I stick to the Softball and Star Wars threads.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^
This is going to be a long off season. I for one am excited for next year. Lots of returning starters and some hungry players looking for breakout seasons who will be vastly improved. I am going to look at next season as a glass half full person as compared to some of you Debbie Downers on here.
February 7th, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^
It isn't exactly pretty right this minute, but I'd prefer to go down as an optimist. Although, it sure is painful when that optimism isn't rewarded if I'm being honest.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:53 PM ^
Major problem comparing the defense in 2010 vs. 2011 and the current offense, the variable sare way different:
The defensive coaching changed from laughable in 2010 to good in 2011. There was no way the defense could have been any worse, and they got a NFL DC + a good DL coach who came in and righted the ship.
As of now, the offense has digressed year after year and the coaching situation is almost the same.
Now, that's not to say that the offense won't be better next season because they are no longer starting 2-3 freshman/walk on WRs, freshman OL (although they might at LT) and a terrible QB, but lack of identity, lack of starting worthy OL, and lack of good coaching are the biggest issues.
Look at the OSU game compared to SCAR. Michigan comes out and runs all over OSU, getting Higdon downhill and Evans in space. Getting WRs and TEs WIDE open against top competition with a terrible QB. It shouldn't be hard to replicate that against a 6-6 team a few weeks later to some extent.
In the bowl game they run shotgun "read options" (with no actual QB running threat) and can't get a guy open outside of DPJ on a bunch of curls. And they had the better QB playing in that game!
Point being, coaching and scheme held the team back as much as youth did last year. The coaches didn't put the players in positions to win games with the exception of OSU which was the outlier of the season. Unless they get the OL sorted out and can scheme the team into winnable situations, a year older won't fix the problem.
February 7th, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
If the issue last year was talent and talent alone, sure.
It wasnt. UM has 6 inexplicable losses since JH has arrived. 2 vs MSU. 1 vs OSU (maybe 2) Iowa, FSU and South Carolina. The staff has looked completely incompetant at times and after the last season to keep some of the coaches on this staff is unbelievable.
Player development has been extremely underwhelming.