Is this Wisconsin game the most important of the Harbaugh era?
So as you might deduce from the title I am inclined to think that this Saturday evening's tilt with the Badgers is a pretty big one. As I thought about the viability of my premise, that this game is the most important in the Harbaugh era, I do realize it's not against MSU or OSU which would traditionally be the games that we would attach such significant meaning too. However, just looking at the present state of our program, both real and perceived, I think a win this weekend really sets us up for a strong season, and hopefully momentum going forward as a program.
Why this game? Some thoughts . . .
When Harbaugh took over every national pundit in the country was predicting a National Championship in 3-5 years, and at the least a return to national prominence. A good first few seasons, crazy and awesome satellite camp and recruiting stories, twitter wars, trips overseas, all mixed in with some disappointing but very close loses had us back in the spotlight with the arrow pointing up. Then last year happened . . . the arrow evened out. Real or perceived it's where we are, and now this season is supposed to be make or break for Harbaugh.
Saturday -
The atmosphere will be amazing! A Saturday night prime time game against a conference foe who had/has aspirations of a BIG 10 title and beyond. The weather looks to be perfect with no rain and the temp around 50 degrees, perfect fall weather for football. The Big House should be a full house under the lights for a national audience and recruits to take in. College Game Day gets things started early as everyone should be excited about the day.
The schedule may now set up to be a bit more manageable than originally thought. We were looking at a bonafide BIG 10 murderers row of sorts with Wisconsin, MSU, and Penn State all in a row who all defeated us last year. Beat Wisconsin at home, while an injury depleted and emotionally down MSU (see post on Valenti) has to travel to Penn State for a very physical game that they lose. We then get to visit a very down, but admittedly desperate 3-3 MSU team with our confidence high and win a close one. Then a bye week to heal and prepare for a Penn State game at home where we hopefully learned some things from last year.
The perception of Harbaugh and the team at present is that we can't win the big games especially in Oct/Nov and this reputation has been earned. A win Saturday on the biggest stage helps to erase that thought, and brings the team much needed confidence . . . the arrow goes back up.
This all sounds really good . . . . in my head! What do you guys think? Exclude the reasons if you want and/or insert your own. How important is this game and does it carry with it a water shed moment of sorts?
October 10th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^
How do you define big one though? The wins over PSU and Wisconsin in 2016 were pretty big in retrospect.
OSU and the division/conference title are the big things that has eluded him, and this Wisconsin result will most likely not have an impact on either of those. And why is it likely they would limp through the rest of the season after a loss? Win or lose, I think having MSU next is going to have the team's full attention.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:04 PM ^
The "big ones," are basically OSU and MSU at this point.
He crushed Penn State two years ago and also beat Wisconsin in a game where we left points on the field missing 3 chip shot field goals. Both those teams played in the conference championship game.
I agree that winning this Saturday night is important because it will set up momentum for more of the meat of the schedule. But even if we win, many probably won't see this as a "big" win since they lost at home to BYU.
I don't care. Just win.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
Other than the upcoming game against Michigan State and then the trip to Columbus, yes.
Oh....and the OSU game in 2016 - that was bigger.
And the OSU game in 2015 was probably bigger as well but not for the same reasons.
Oh man I forgot the MSU game in 2015 too. Yup...that was bigger.
So to answer your question I think the answer is yes, it's the biggest game of the Harbaugh era except for those five other games.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^
2016 Wisconsin was bigger than this one too.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^
Yes!!
October 10th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
No.
They are all important but I would rather beat MSU and Penn St rather than Wisconsin. If it were a choice. Those are slightly “more important”. We beat Wisconsin in 2016 when they were ranked #8 and it hasn’t really moved the needle on the narrative that Harbaugh can’t win the big game. We NEED this win Saturday. But we will need the win in EL the next week even more.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
In my opinion I think every game going forward is the most important of the Harbaugh era. I think it's is pivotal to run the table and at least make it to the Big Ten Championship game. No more excuses.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:56 AM ^
This week it is. When we win , the next one will be, and so on and so forth for this season, but in the grand scheme of things, Harbaugh isn't on the hot seat, so theoretically, he doesn't have any games like that. If we don't make the playoff this year, there is always next year, right?
October 10th, 2018 at 11:58 AM ^
No.
The most important game of the Harbaugh era up to this point was 2016 Ohio State.
The most important game of the future is 2018 Ohio State.
The most important game of the season so far is, well, yes... 2018 Wisconsin.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^
No, Ohio State 2016 was far and away the most important.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:00 PM ^
I think the rest of the season is one the most important stretches for Harbaugh in his tenure here. This is arguably the most complete team he's had and we seem to be clicking at the right time. This is the meat of our schedule. This is where we put the pedal to the metal and prove ourselves
October 10th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
For me, the MSU game in 2 weeks is the biggest imo. Then if we keep winning it will be at osu. We need to beat both of those football teams. Cannot lose to msu
October 10th, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
No fing way we loose to sharty this year. There 2&3 star recruiting classes and no athletes is starting to catch up with them. And they are banged up pretty bad.
October 10th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^
Not negging you, but we should have beaten Sparty at least 2-3 times more than we have over this past decade, yet here we are. Yes we should beat them this year; they are not very good, but they will play waaaay over their heads next week, and it will be stressful.
October 10th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^
100% agree
October 10th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
2016 OSU would be the biggest so far. But 2018 OSU might also be huge.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^
You could maybe make the argument that it is the most important game so far, but it is unlikely to be the most important game of this season. (However, I would argue that 2016 OSU was far more important, as it started us on this murkier trajectory.)
The only argument to make about this being the most important game revolves around momentum for the rest of the season, which is incredibly hard to quantify or qualify. If we win this game and then beat MSU and PSU and OSU, is there any reason to think this game was the major impetus? Alternatively, if we win this game but then lose to MSU, PSU, and OSU, then this game was 100% meaningless.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^
This game will set the tone for the rest of the season. We are about to enter the meat grinder part of the season and this game is a must win. It will feel really good going into the bye week with only one non-conference loss.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
It's not bigger than 2016 OSU. I could maybe see a case that it's the second biggest to date (i.e., meaning the later games this season are off-limits). But still, nah.
It does kind of have a similar feel to the 2010 Penn State game where the team had been looking pretty good early, had a couple of setbacks against very good opponents, and then faced a "okay, now prove it" scenario against a good, but beatable, B1G opponent. When M laid an egg in that game is when I think lots of people were done with Rich Rod.
In this case, M had a setback against a ND team that is now top-6 and looking good for the CFP, but has otherwise been looking strong against overmatched opponents--and now faces a prove-it game against a solid, but beatable, league opponent. So there are some similarities. But I think this game is fundamentally different in that I don't see M fans bailing on Harbaugh en masse if M loses the game. It would suck, and I'm sure there would be a rough week of angry rants and hot takes. But M could right the ship against MSU and Penn State and the program would remain on a generally upward trajectory.
I do think if M were to go 0-3, or maybe even 1-2 depending on how bad the losses are, over the the upcoming stretch then some real doubt could set in. But on that logic, any game is "the most important."
October 10th, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
There's no way this game is even close to as important as 2016 OSU. If we win 2016 OSU, we finish the regular season 11-1 with road wins against MSU and a top 3 OSU and are one win against a Wisconsin team we had already beaten away from our first B1G title in 12 years, plus a playoff berth.
If we win this week we still have to win @MSU, vs PSU, vs Indiana and @Rutgers to be in the same position we were in in 2016.
It's delusional to think this is more important.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
If we had just beaten fricken' Iowa. GAHHHHHH!
October 10th, 2018 at 1:23 PM ^
Or tackled Curtis Samuel when he was 20 freaking yards behind the LOS.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^
Not even close
October 10th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
It's exceptionally important to this season, but not the most important one of his tenure. 2016 Ohio State takes that cake.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
No, the NC will be.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
I think that the Penn State game is significantly more important than Wisconsin. Obviously, OSU is the MOST important, but in order to get to that point with a chance to win the East we need to beat Penn State. Wisconsin is not as good as people think they are right now. A night win at Kinnick is always impressive, but I would argue that Iowa is not as good as they were when beating us by a hair or beating OSU with a crowbar. Wisconsin will win the West, but I really don't buy them being that good.
Penn State, on the other hand, SHOULD have won that OSU game, which leads me to believe that, despite the conference record, they are the biggest team for us to beat to keep hope alive. Or maybe PSU-OSU was an overhyped game between two teams that haven't really beaten anyone all season. OSU's victory over TCU doesn't look that great anymore, and they let Oregon State score 31 on them. PSU played tomato cans up until this game and went to overtime with Appalachian State.
TL;DR: Wisconsin is fine but not great, PSU game is almost as important as OSU, but both of them are probably overhyped.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^
I think there was some guy who once said "there is no game more important the game you're going down the tunnel to play today"
So...in that case, yes. But in a more wholistic and correct sense...no.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:56 PM ^
Wholistic? You mean holistic, right? I've seen this twice today, please don't let it be a thing...
October 10th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
No. It will be the most important game this season before October 20. I will give you that.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^
At the end of the year the ND game might have been the most important
October 10th, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
Every big game brings out this narrative...until the next big game. If we lose the haters will say the program is collapsing and Harbaugh needs to be fired until the next week when if we win they will be right back on board.
This new narrative that every win or loss is program changing the last 5-10 years has been fascinating.
We have a good coach, good assistants, recruiting is going well, we're in the mix now for a title and the future looks bright.
This is another big game on the road to hopefully many more. Hate these threads and topics on the radio.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:28 PM ^
You hate the topic "Is this the biggest game under Harbaugh?"
It is just not a very hate-able topic.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:22 PM ^
No. There have been 6 more important games, unfortunately we are 1-5 in those games.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
It should certainly have the biggest impact on rival fans perception of the program (although it won't do away with the struggles on the road narrative). I think we all feel pretty confident that Michigan is the better team in this game by a significant amount, and for me at least, my nerves stem from the fear of Michigan beating itself. However, five minutes on rival blogs would indicate that the perception is generally that we haven't improved a bit from last year. We are going on ten years where it feels like Michigan starts strong and falls apart in the 2nd half of the season. So in that sense, yes it's important.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
Not even the most important through this point of the season. Notre Dame is looking like a very damaging loss, and would make any longshot playoff hopes that much harder
October 10th, 2018 at 2:36 PM ^
Losing on the road to a top 10 team in the first game of the season is damaging? Notre Dame is also undefeated right now.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
If the team loses this game where seemingly everything is in their favor on the biggest stage I don't see how Harbaugh could recover save beating MSU and Ohio
October 10th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
It is, until the next one and the one after that.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
NO
We can lose to Wisc and PSU and MSU --- BUT BEAT OSU and I am happy.
OSU is always most important.
October 10th, 2018 at 2:11 PM ^
I can't tell you how many times I was pissed in the 90s when we'd beat OSU and still end up in a second-tier bowl while the Buckeyes went to better bowl games. The wins in 1993, 1995 and 1996 were bittersweet because I couldn't understand where that performance was all season.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^
To clarify, I'm not saying it's the biggest/most personally disappointing game in Harbaugh's tenure (Iowa, OSU 2016), or the games you want to win the most (MSU and OSU). And yes, the next game on the schedule is the biggest.
I'm thinking that a win over Wisconsin is a big win, at a much needed time given the current state of the program, that gives us the confidence we desperately need to change the arrow going forward. It propels us to victory over other upcoming opponents, and hopefully sets us up for a winner goes to the title game battle with OSU at the end of the year.
It's all about timing!
October 10th, 2018 at 1:36 PM ^
Except that none of that is the case here.
Literally the only impact of this game on the actual season is that winning makes us about 15% likely to go to the playoff, losing puts the odds around 3% and on life support.
That's it. A measly 12% difference in odds to go the playoff. Odds of winning the division and conference barely move since it's a non-divisional foe. It would give M a margin for error against MSU, Rutgers and IU, but I mean, Rutgers and IU aren't much of a concern. And for all the reasons you want to win this game, the MSU game is twice as important in terms of winning on the road, beating a rival and all the "intangibles."
This team isn't going to lose confidence if they lose to a good Wisconsin team. The program is in good shape and no one inside Schembechler cares about the takes that will follow. They'll be ready to go in EL and then if they take care of business there, come home with a still huge game against PSU coming up. Those games are what matter for setting M up for a winner-take all with OSU, not this one.
Heck, I'd rather spend parts of this week working on MSU to increase the odds of winning that because that game is so much more important.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
Nope. OSU game this year. We could lose to Wisconsin, go 1-1 against PSU and MSU, but if we beat OSU, that's a big momentum game.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
This Saturdays game vs Wisconsin is absolutely NOT the biggest of Harbaugh's tenure here.
The December 1st game against Wisconsin is.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^
100% Agree. This is an inflection point in the season and the program. A win enables all the good things to happen. A loss says this still has a long way to go to be elite.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^
No.
Sure, it's really important. It's huge. But it's not the most important game of the Harbaugh era; it's not even the most important game of October. Win? You go to Michigan State, on the road. That's just as big. Lose? The MSU game might be the most important game of the Harbaugh era, then.
And it all pales in comparison to that game at the end of November, which will be by far the season's most important game whether we have one loss or four (or any other number). And, yes, probably the most important game of the Harbaugh era. The stakes that The Game holds for both the present and future of the program are astronomical.
But this is a big game, yeah.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
Plenty of No answers already with pretty nuanced reasoning, which I can get behind. We watch this team every week, we know the players inside and out, we understand the struggles over the last decade.
But let's be serious and honest here. If Harbaugh loses this game, the headlines and hawt takes will come fast and they will come furious, and they will be deafening.
- Harbaugh to the NFL
- Harbaugh can't hack it
- Michigan no longer is a top 20 program
All this kinda crap.
These kids need a big win. And I think they are ready to go take it.
Michigan 28
Wisconsin 17
October 10th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
The headlines and hawt takes probably wont even last three days cause the MSU game is next week. A loss WILL cause the MSU game to be ONE of the biggest of Harbaugh's career (not THE biggest).