Win Loss Margins (WLM) for the New Divisions
WLM (Win/Loss Margin) over the past 10 years. A WLM of 0 would be 6-6, +2 would be 7-5, etc.
OSU = 7.9
Wisc = 4.2
U/M = 3.8
Iowa = 3.4
PSU = 2.9
Purdue = 1.2
NW = 0.1
Minn = -0.1
MSU = -.3
Illini = -2.7
Indy = -3.9
Neb = 4.0U/M, Neb, Iowa, MSU, Minn, NW = 10.9
The Others = 9.6
I'll update this if the divisions change.
September 1st, 2010 at 7:00 PM ^
Keep in mind that a lot of the difference is explained by PSU's really bad stretch from 2000-04, when they had four losing seasons out of five. Now, we've also had a bad stretch, but it's only been two seasons. If you were to restrict the data to the last five seasons, I think it would go in the other direction.
September 1st, 2010 at 7:15 PM ^
Here are the WLM for the past 5 years. (That is a relatively short time. 10 years should be more predictive of historical records.)
OSU = 7.8
Wisc = 6.0
U/M = 3.2
Iowa = 2.8
PSU = 4.8
Purdue = 0.4
NW = 0.6
Minn = -1.2
MSU = -0.2
Illini = -3.4
Indy = -3.0
Neb = 2.0U/M, Neb, Iowa, MSU, Minn, NW = 7.2
The Others = 12.6
September 1st, 2010 at 7:20 PM ^
I agree that five years isn't normally a better indicator than ten years, but these results clearly show that a down spell for one program (PSU in the first half of the decade and UM the last two years) can have a major impact.
All things considered, the competitive balance is reasonable.
September 1st, 2010 at 7:40 PM ^
Oops, fat fingered the formula. Those numbers are all wrong. They were for the last 5 years not including 2009. Here are the last 5 years including 2009.
OSU =
7.88.8
Wisc =6.06.2
U/M =3.21.6
Iowa =2.83.0
PSU =4.87.6
Purdue =0.4-0.4
NW =0.61.2
Minn =-1.2-1.8
MSU =-0.20.0
Illini =-3.4-3.6
Indy =-3.0-2.8
Neb =2.03.4U/M, Neb, Iowa, MSU, Minn, NW = 7.4
The Others = 15.8
Seems obvious this is not what they used to "balance". (10 year data is certainly more balanced)
September 1st, 2010 at 7:09 PM ^
Thanks for the good info man.