Will UM be contenders for the B10 title in 2011

Submitted by FingerMustache on

with woolfolk redshirting in the upcoming season and hopefully returning for 2011, it just dawned on me how this tragic occurrence may turn out as a positive in the long run, as 2011 is a more probably season for UM to have some serious success .

***I want to be clear that I am not happy about Troys injury, even if it will help our 2011 campagin

 

at the end of the 2010 season (or actually 10-11 academic year if you care about academics and all that), michigan will be graduating the following players:

-Moundros

-Webb

-Dorrestein

-Ferrara

-Schilling

-Banks

-Sagesse

-Patterson

-Ezeh

-Mouton

-Rogers

 

While that is a reasonably long list, the negative impact that these departures will have at each position is somewhat minimal, with a few exceptions. (Im assuming, and praying, that no one leaves early. Martin, Molk, Van Bergen, or Stonum are the most likely)

 

Of those players, the projected starters are:

-Schilling - LG

-Mouton - WLB

-Ezeh - MLB

-Dorrestein (maybe) - T

-Banks (maybe) - DE/DT

 

their likely replacements are:

LG: Barnum, Washington, or Mealer 

As of now I would guess Barnum but it will likely depend on where Washington is in his development.

 

WLB: JB Fitzgerald, Josh Furman (maybe), Mike Jones, Isaiah Bell.

Furman is currently listed at 207. He would likely have to add another 20 lbs to be a viable option here. Otherwise hell probably get looks at the spur position. I personally think this would be a more natural fit, as the spur would give him more coverage responsibilities, which is something he lacks experience in.

 

MLB: Kenny Demens, JB Fitzgerald

 

T: Lewan, Scofield

 

DE/DT: Campbell, Black, Lalota

If Campbell is ready, he might take over the NT and Martin may slide over. Otherwise someone like  Jibreel Black or Lalota will be put somewhere onto the line.

 

what does this all amount to?

 

The O-Line:

Based on last seasons performances, Schilling is clearly the biggest loss. However, improvements along the other positions on the line should amount to an overall improvement, despite losing both he and Dorrestein (who may not be a starter). Two of Lewan, Schofield, and Huyge will take the tackle spots. I know a lot of people here have high hopes for the prior two, so another year of experience will hopefully mean big things.  Molk will be a senior and hopefully an All-Big10 performer. Omameh will be a junior and have a season and a half of starts under his belt. I expect the OLine to be one of the best in the B10 in 2011.

 

WR's:

No change unless stonum leaves early. Between Rountree, Stonum, Odoms, Hemingway, etc this should be a pretty solid group. Especially if Stonum breaks out this yr like we all hope he will.

 

QBs:

No change in personelle but experience is always a good thing. I expect one of Tate or Denard will establish themselves at some point by then. Unless Gardner surpasses both.

 

TEs:

Koger will be a senior. Hopefully hell get some looks. Otherwise hell simply be an above average blocker.

 

DLine:

If Martin leaves early that would be a big loss. But if not, this should be an improved group. I expect Banks to start, but hes really (hopefully) only keeping Campbells spot on the line warm until hes ready to compete. 2011 should be Campbells time to become the everdown guy. If not, some good things have been said about jibreel black recently.

 

LBs:

This group is going to lose a ton of experience in Ezeh and Mouton. Mouton is probably the greater loss, but neither played well last year, so its hard to make a judgment. Of all of the position groups, this one is probably the most troubling. We dont really have much proven young talent waiting behind these two. But if they play like they did last yr, we really cant regress that much in 2011. Hopefully Fitzgerald and Demens will justify their recruiting hype. Otherwise who knows (maybe some freshman compete). Roh will be a beast in 2011.

 

DBs:

The only change in personelle will be the return of Woolfolk. If he returns in full form, this will obviously be an improved group

-CB1 - Woolfolk

-CB2 - Floyd/Christian/Avery/Talbott

-FS - Cam Gordon/Emilien

-SS - Kovacs/Marvin Robinson

-Spur - Thomas Gordon/Mike Williams/Josh Furman

 

So, final comparisons to 2010:

Oline - improved

WRs - improved

QBs - improved

TEs - improved

DLine - improved

LBs - ?

DBs - improved

 

Finally, after all that rambling...How good do you guys think this team could actually be?

john22

August 19th, 2010 at 1:35 AM ^

After we win 9 to 10 games this year we will end up in the top ten recuirting classes,which we only helps us.At a key pos like LB!!!

Captain

August 19th, 2010 at 1:37 AM ^

I've had 2011 circled on my calendar the last couple of years.  As long as he isn't forced out prematurely, I think RR will murder teams next year.

Wolverine0056

August 19th, 2010 at 8:57 AM ^

I think it would be extremely foolish for RR to be fired this year. Because he has his type of players in this system now and if someone else comes in, we will be back to square one (in terms of having spread offense personnel and not pro-style offense personnel). Everything is clicking and next year we will have the depth to go along with the experience.

FingerMustache

August 19th, 2010 at 1:46 AM ^

i dont actually make speculations on the upcoming season. i simply make statements regarding personelle changes and the likely impacts. my  point is that i expect the 2011 team to be better than the 2010 team. im sorry if optimism about this teams future is that outrageous to you. Lets talk about this yr instead...o wait wed still be speculating. Better yet, lets talk about last yr, since its pretty much certain how that will turn out.

flyboy

August 19th, 2010 at 1:55 AM ^

I am not sure how the schedule will shape up with the addition of Nebraska, but we are scheduled to have Notre Dame, Penn State, and Ohio State at home in 2011 as of right now.  The points made in your post, along with the favorable home schedule, is why I am very optimistic for the 2011 season and why I think Rich Rod should be the coach in 2011 (pending improvement from last season).  His system is in place and he has his players.  I really hope the team does well this year so that Rich Rod can keep his job and begin winning here in Ann Arbor the way he has won everywhere else he has coached.  I think this year is just the beginning of many good years to come for the Wolverines! Go Blue!

Tater

August 19th, 2010 at 2:00 AM ^

I think they will be in the mix for the National Championship game for the 2011 season.  I think the QB's will be well-developed and the DB situation will straighten itself out by then, with a combination of recruiting and development.

uminks

August 19th, 2010 at 2:07 AM ^

Hopefully we will improve every year!  I'm not sure when we'll have that breakout year but it will probably happen when our defense becomes good to great at all positions. May be that pipeline for a great defense has been started? So my guess would be 2 to 3 seasons down the road. A great goal this season will go from the bottom of the conference in '09 to the middle of the conference this season (We should have at least 7 wins if this would to occur). 2011, I would like to see the team reach the top 1/3 of the b10 conference....and years after to battle for the b10 title and perhaps the national title!

blue note

August 19th, 2010 at 2:42 AM ^

Breaking down the returners/ losses, it definitely looks like it will be an improved team. Unfortunately, it's possible there could be a 3-4 win improvement in 2011 and that would result in an 8-4 or 9-3 team that's not quite big 10 championship level yet.

We'll be back on top, it's only a matter of time. But it may be a couple years.

 

 

GoodLuckVarsity

August 19th, 2010 at 3:53 AM ^

It's fairly common for fans/coaches/teams to look beyond the season at hand.  In my view, that isn't the problem with the post.

The real problem with your line of reasoning is that it assumes Rich does well enough this year to keep his job in 2011.  From a personnel standpoint, we could very well be much better off in 2011.  But a coaching change could cause mass chaos, especially if Rich Rod's replacement had no interest/experience in the spread.  Many of our prized recruits (i.e. - Devin Gardner) were recruited to play this specific system and might not be nearly as effective in a pro-style offense.

BlueJellow

August 19th, 2010 at 4:37 AM ^

I think our team looks like a breakout team on paper. Take the Kansas Jayhawks in 2006 with a 6-6 record and most losses being less than a touchdown. The only losses beyond a touchdown were to power teams in the conference:

 

09/02/2006* 6:00 p.m. Northwestern State   University of Kansas Memorial Stadium • Lawrence, KS   W 49-18   44,025
09/09/2006* 6:00 p.m. Louisiana-Monroe   University of Kansas Memorial Stadium • Lawrence, KS   W 21-19   45,221
09/15/2006* 7:00 p.m. at Toledo   Toledo, OH ESPN2 L 31-37 2OT  
09/23/2006* 6:00 p.m. South Florida   University of Kansas Memorial Stadium • Lawrence, KS FSN W 13-7   40,933
09/30/2006 6:00 p.m. at #21 Nebraska   Lincoln, NB FSN L 32-39 OT  
10/07/2006† 11:00 a.m. Texas A&M   University of Kansas Memorial Stadium • Lawrence, KS FSN L 18-21   46,445
10/14/2006 1:00 p.m. Oklahoma State   University of Kansas Memorial Stadium • Lawrence, KS   L 32-42   41,203
10/21/2006 2:05 p.m. at Baylor   Waco, TX   L 35-36    
10/28/2006 1:00 p.m. Colorado   University of Kansas Memorial Stadium • Lawrence, KS   W 20-15   39,313
11/04/2006 1:00 p.m. at Iowa State   Ames, IA   W 41-10    
11/18/2006 2:30 p.m. Kansas State   University of Kansas Memorial Stadium • Lawrence, KS FSN W 39-20   51,821
11/25/2006 11:00 a.m. Missouri   Columbia, MO ABC L 17-42

Now Michigan's record last year:

 

September 5, 2009* 3:30 PM Western Michigan   Michigan Stadium • Ann Arbor, MI ABC/ESPN2 W 31–7   109,019
September 12, 2009* 3:30 PM #18 Notre Dame   Michigan Stadium • Ann Arbor, MI (Michigan-Notre Dame rivalry game) ABC W 38–34   110,278
September 19, 2009* 12:00 PM Eastern Michigan #25 Michigan Stadium • Ann Arbor, MI BTN W 45–17   107,903
September 26, 2009† 12:00 PM Indiana #22 Michigan Stadium • Ann Arbor, MI ESPN2 W 36–33   108,118
October 3, 2009 12:00 PM at Michigan State #20 Spartan Stadium • East Lansing, MI

(Paul Bunyan Trophy)
BTN L 26–20 OT 78,629
October 10, 2009 8:00 PM at #14 Iowa   Kinnick Stadium • Iowa City, IA ABC L 30–28   70,585
October 17, 2009* 12:00 PM Delaware State   Michigan Stadium • Ann Arbor, MI BTN W 63–6   106,304
October 24, 2009 3:30 PM #11 Penn State   Michigan Stadium • Ann Arbor, MI ABC/ESPN L 35–10   110,377
October 31, 2009 3:30 PM at Illinois   Memorial Stadium • Champaign, IL ABC/ESPN2 L 38–13   60,119
November 7, 2009 12:00 PM Purdue   Michigan Stadium • Ann Arbor, MI BTN L 38–36   108,543
November 14, 2009 12:00 PM at #20 Wisconsin   Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI BTN L 45–24   80,540
November 21, 2009 12:00 PM #8 Ohio State   Michigan Stadium • Ann Arbor, MI (Michigan–Ohio State rivalry game) ABC L 21–10   110,922

This is all available on Wikipedia. Kansas blew up the next season and went the Orange bowl defeating VT. I remember thinking a few times last season, holy crap if one or two things went our way we would have had that one. So maybe this season has some potential too.

magonus

August 19th, 2010 at 6:51 AM ^

This season I expect us to be just out of the running for the Big Ten title, going 6-2 in conference play. Next year it will be a huge disappointment if we don't win the Big Ten and compete for a national championship.

hailvictors1970

August 19th, 2010 at 8:35 AM ^

I think you can see the potential for TITLE talk for next year, the pieces are there,however, if the loss of Woolfolk does cost us a game or two this season, putting us at 7 - 5 or 6 -6 instead of 8 - 4 or better, RR is gone!!  Forget looking at 2011. Just worry about this season and hope the defensive front has a great year to keep the pressure off the secondary. RR could stay at 7 - 5 if he beats Sparty and wins down in Tressel Town.

Wolverine Incognito

August 19th, 2010 at 8:42 AM ^

Yes...  unless they fire RichRod this year*.  And with the injury to Woolfolk, and the seeming impatience of our boosters, RR may not be here next year...  only time will tell.

*To be clear, I personally think it would be a HUGE mistake to fire RR.

bigmc6000

August 19th, 2010 at 8:56 AM ^

Given the situation with the D I think the major thing that's going to save RichRod (other than wins obviously) is a vastly improved Offense since that's his thing.  If the offense still sputters despite have experience everywhere I'm ok with them giving him the boot because, seriously, that's just awful.  That being said I don't think that's going to be the case, I think the offense is going to be MUCH improved with fewer negative plays and converting nearly all the easy stuff.  We may get out scored and our secondary may get torched (hopefully they'll grow as the season goes on and get better) but I think the major thing to save RichRod is 1) a bowl game and 2) showing significant offensive progress.

bigmc6000

August 19th, 2010 at 9:38 AM ^

I think a lot of that (should we end up 7-6 either with a bowl win or 7-5 and a bowl loss) will depend on the games themselves.  If we start off slow and finish playing really good ball they'll be more likely to keep him as it's obvious progress is being shown.  If it happens like it happened last year and we start off hot and then turn into mush I'm guessing he's gone. Oh, and no blowout losses to Illinois.  I think if we end up 7-6 with all the losses being 10 points or less (maybe 1 more than 10 but you only get 1) and obvious progress being shown I think he gets 1 more year just because of the age of the team and how it'd be a complete travesty to be bringing back all the talent we'll have in 2011 and have to bring in a brand new coach.

I really just hope we're not even having this discussion tho! :)  9-4 with a bowl win and a top 15 ranking headed into 2011.

stmccoy

August 19th, 2010 at 9:41 AM ^

I think you have to consider Michigan a contender in 2011 with that many starters returning on both sides of the ball.  I think how much the defense improves this year will give a good indication on how much of a contender.  Adding depth with another solid recruiting class obviously wouldn't hurt the case either. 

michgoblue

August 19th, 2010 at 10:30 AM ^

Dude, it is August . . . of 2010 - why are we talking about 2011?  If we are already looking forward to 2011, there is something seriously wrong.

Also, I don't want to rain on the we-are-going-to-go-12-0-in-2011 parade, but I am not convinced of this.  Yes - we have a lot of young players that we think will be good players.  Guess what?  So do most upper tier teams.  Do you think that our young talent is any better than the young talent at OSU, ND, Florida, Tenn., Bama or most of the other top 20 schools?  Again, not saying that we won't be awesome next year, but the reasons that I have seen floated around - young returning players - just doesn't do it for me. 

What I do think is that we will be COMPETITIVE with better teams in 2011.  At that point, we will have some depth and some experience, kind of like most of the better schools. 

Unfortunately, the last two year have lowered all of our expectations to the point that having a full 2-deap that does not consist heavily of walk-ons and true freshman has us excited. 

dahblue

August 19th, 2010 at 10:48 AM ^

Come on.  Really?  We're already looking at how good we'll be next year?  How about this - If we have a bad year this season, we will be digging out of the RichRod crater for some time.  All those recruits waiting to see "how the season goes"?  We're going to lose them.  They don't care about the myriad excuses made on this board for how no-one-could-really-expect-us-to-do-well.  Will everyone give the next coach the "bare cupboard" excuse?  The "he needs his players" excuse?  The "media is out to get him" excuse?

I'm tired of excuses.  Tired of looking at "next season".  We have been hit with some bad luck but that doesn't override the performance on the field.  A good coach adjusts to the players he has.  It's time to see how well our coaches and players can adjust to this adversity.  

michgoblue

August 19th, 2010 at 11:28 AM ^

I hear what you are saying.  I flip flop on this issue about 10 times per day (more so on the days when we are in DOOOOOM mode).

Yes, under RR, we have been absolutely horrible.  A joke on and off the field.  3-9, 5-7, tons of transfers, constantly in the media for negative things, meh recruiting, NCAA infractions, etc.

The real question is how much of this is RR's fault?

NCAA infractions - probably some of this falls on him.

Meh recruiting - partially RR (he is the guy at the top), but at the same time, could another coach have done better with a 3-9, 5-7 record and a shitstorm of negative media BS?  Not sure - probably not.  I give him a pass on this.

Transfers - We have lost some big name players, Mallett being the highest profile.  This one I really can't put on RR - whenever there is a regine change, transfers happen.  In our own program, when Bo came in, he lost a ton of players.  If we replace RR, unless the new coach is a spread guy (and who would we be looking at?), we can expect to have another round of transfers.

The final criticism (and probably the most disturbing) - our record.  This one I can partially put on RR.  Yes, we are lacking depth, yes we have a really young team and yes we are going through a massive change, but 3-9?  Losing to MAC teams (and Purdue)?  With Sheridan at QB we were going to be bad, but the B10 was weak and our OOC schedule is a joke.  I believe that 5-6 wins that first year was possible (just as I believe that 7-8 was possible last year), and that RR did not maximize what he was given.

Not sure what all of this means.  I can't see the "run RR out of town on the next train" argument.  Too many mitigating factors, many beyond his control.  But, I also can't see the blind loyalty argument either.  RR has to share in some of the blame for what has happened to our program since his hire.

Tha Quiet Storm

August 19th, 2010 at 1:44 PM ^

is why I want RR back next year so badly.  All the shortsighted "fans" who only follow this team between September and November and want RR gone just don't understand the point we are at when it comes to our roster.  In 2011, the offense should be truly elite (top 15 in the country), and the defense should finally approach something resembling competence (funny how filling a depleted roster and getting those players experience corresponds with more on-field success). 

I've used this analogy before, and I think it fits the situation: Getting rid of RR after this season (barring a complete and total disaster) would be like tearing down a skyscraper that is 80% complete because you wanted it to be done quicker.  You would satisfy the uninformed, Freep and 97.1 consuming fans, but you would be starting over from scratch and further delaying any potential success.

WolvinLA2

August 19th, 2010 at 5:09 PM ^

Not only will UM be a contender to win the Big Ten in 2011, they will be the favorite.  Write that down, Michigan will be looking very strong a year from now.

This does not mean I've written off 2010, much the opposite I think we will have a better than expected 2010.  But 2011 will be nasty.