Will RichRod lead UM to National Championship?

Submitted by umfan on June 30th, 2008 at 7:39 PM

RichRod is a great coach in my mind and he can lead teams from being the scum of the conference (referring to West Virginia of the Big East b4 RichRod) to National Title contenders (WVU 2007). As many of you may have seen Rich had a chance to play for the National Championship but slipped up against Pitt.

Do you think Rich Rod will lead the University of Michigan to a National Championship? What do you think?

I think Rich Rod will definitaley win the Championship with Michigan in the next ten years.

Also. How will he do against Ohio State during his career?

Comments

KBLOW

June 30th, 2008 at 9:01 PM ^

Yes.  It'll take 3-4 years for the first (and then he goes pro, crashes and burns and ends up at Tenn or VA Tech.)

 He'll end up with a winning all but this year's  game against tOSU.

WolvinLA

July 1st, 2008 at 2:12 PM ^

I just don't see RR ever becoming an NFL head coach.  He has run a very unique style of offense his entire coaching career, and that style is just not one that would work in the NFL.  He knows that, and so do the NFL GM's.  I also don't think he'll take off to another college program unless he's not performing well.  If he has success at Michigan, we will pay him as much as any other program will.  Assuming everything goes smoothly (i.e. he wins games) I foresee RichRod coaching at UM for far longer than 8 years.

mjv

July 1st, 2008 at 2:25 PM ^

Wolvin,

I just have a hard time seeing someone who left his alma mater staying anywhere too long.  If he was willing to leave home, why would he stay in AA?  Someone in the SEC would certainly be willing to pay more for a HC than Michigan.  I doubt that we would have matched Miles LSU contract. 

I hope that RR and UofM have a long and successful partnership, but I'm somewhat pessimistic on the likelihood.

Bob Probert Owns You

June 30th, 2008 at 9:46 PM ^

I think if Rich Rod embraces the rivalry with OSU, this could turn into the Ten Year War, part deux. We just need to start doing better in recruting head to head with Tressel, which should happen in the next year or so.

mjv

June 30th, 2008 at 11:53 PM ^

The odds of winning a national championship are slim.  Look at Bo, he was at the top of college football world for 21 years, but never won the NC.  I think that we will go back to winning half of the big ten championships, with OSU winning the other half.  I suspect that RR will only be our HC for 8 years at most.  That leaves only four possible years where we would win the NC.   Maybe at best we have one year where we have an undefeated regular season.  Give us a 50/50 shot at the title game.  I just doesn't bode well for winning the NC.  I do believe that we will be a top 10 team for almost all of RR regime, but getting over the hump is a low percentage outcome.

MaizeNBlueJ

July 1st, 2008 at 9:59 AM ^

I'm not criticizing, but what makes you think he's only to coach here for 8 years?  Do you think he'll head to the NFL, is he going to retire from coaching, or is he going to leave for a 'step up' in the coaching ranks?

I'm just curious as to your thought process.

In addition, I'll put in my .02.  I can honestly see us winning it all.  I think he'll take us to where we're right on the edge of it, at the very least.  It will of course, take some luck to get over the proverbial hump.  There always has to be one or two fortuitous bounces for a team to win the National Championship.  I believe he'll prepare the team to the best of his ability.

mjv

July 1st, 2008 at 10:25 AM ^

I put the over under at 8 years for his tenure given that he has no real ties to UofM.  If he is very successful, I'm not sure that we will be willing to keep his salary at a level he desires.  And 8 years is a rather long time for a coach to stay at one place.

I think that we will be much closer to winning a NC under RR than the second half of the Carr dynasty (post 2001 parkinson's diagnosis), but the odds are tough.  Look at FSU they were in the top 4 for 14 straight years and only won 2 NCs.  (And if I'm not mistaken, both were questionable given the late season losses -- ND and Miami).  We will be far more competitive, and at least on par with OSU, but so was Bo.

umfan

July 1st, 2008 at 3:24 PM ^

OK. Now listen up. RichRod is not leaving Michigan until he retires. Although it may not have seemed it this year, Michigan is the crown jewel of Head Coaching jobs. I do not think he will leave Michigan unless he is very unsuccesful. There is so much tradition here and this is such a great program that he won't leave until he walks away from the game.

Obviously i'm optimistic.

chunkums

July 1st, 2008 at 4:28 PM ^

I know people always grumble when the situation is compared to Bo Schembechler, but Bo came from OSU and grew up in Ohio for crying out loud. He didn't mind sticking around. Lets give Rodriguez a chance before we accuse him of being someone using us like a freshman sorority girl, then ditching us for the next best thing.

Jim Harbaugh S…

July 1st, 2008 at 4:37 PM ^

RichRod will lead us to many Big East championships and BCS games, but I think the end of the year game against Pitt is going to prevent him from ever going all the way But in all seriousness - I think it is too early to tell - If I told you on the day that they all became head coaches that Carr, Carrol and Tressel would all win a championship within 3 years, you would have though I was nuts or be a total homer. RichRod is building a great core through recruiting - the key to me is getting the right QB for the system.

formerlyanonymous

July 1st, 2008 at 4:43 PM ^

black shoes diary is looking to flame up some michigan commenters on the subject already.  MNC's isnt what we should be looking for immediately.  Perhaps he gives us a better chance than Lloyd did, perhaps not.  That's something time will tell.  What is beneficial is that we are left in a better position to achieve regardless of whether or not RR stays long term or short.

 

I will point out I liked that firefox used to tell me I misspelled things on Haloscan.  Right now I bet i have at least 2-3 spelling errors per post. 

chitownblue (not verified)

July 3rd, 2008 at 12:45 PM ^

I literally don't understand the "I'm not sure he understands the rivalry with OSU" argument. It's a football game. He's good at winning football games. So, he'll have a good chance to win that football game. Right? They don't play Michigan/OSU with alternate rules, I think.

mjv

July 3rd, 2008 at 1:30 PM ^

There is something emotional about rivalry games that makes them different. Coop at OSU was great at winning every game before the Michigan game. He just couldn't get his team to perform under the intense pressure of the Game. I have no real idea why that affects players, but it does.

chitownblue (not verified)

July 3rd, 2008 at 1:47 PM ^

So was Lloyd once an awesome big game coach, then he morphed into a crappy one? Was Bo awesome in some big games (OSU) but crappy in others (Rose Bowl). Tressell? Or is it all a crapshoot?

dex

July 3rd, 2008 at 1:51 PM ^

See, to me, attributing a very good OSU team losing to Michigan in the Cooper years to "the coach didn't fire them up for the rivalry" is almost insulting to the Michigan players. Come on, Timmy B ran for 313 fucking yards against them. It wasn't because they didn't get the rivalry, it's because they could not tackle him. It's football, and talent wise there wasn't (and still isn't) much difference between M and OSU, so of course there will be upsets.

mjv

July 3rd, 2008 at 1:58 PM ^

I can't explain why highly successful coaches have certain situations that don't succeed at, but there are some rather solid examples of certain teams in certain situations failing to live up to potential. Bo and Coop were ridiculously successful outside of the Rose Bowl and the Game, respectively. Lloyd was fantastic against highly ranked opponents through roughly 2000. Are there certain circumstances in each game taht changed the outcome, of course (phantom fumble, mystery fake punt holding in Pasadena -- Henson leaving early, dropped passes, questionable late hits, etc. in the Game for Lloyd). But you cannot tell me that our talent and general coaching was 8-2-1 better than Coop. He had scads of talent getting drafted every year. If there is one thing that you can single out, the difference may have been QB play during the Coop year and the Tressel years. Coops QBs were not a good as our and the opposite holds true for Tressel.

MRG

July 3rd, 2008 at 2:00 PM ^

1.) Talent 2.) Scheme 3.) Injuries (Ordered based on the GSimmons doctrine) Tressel understands the importance of the rivalry, but doesn't understand the importance of the BCS championship? I tend to think OSU has had incrementally better players and significantly better coaching. In the Cooper years, I would say OSU had equal players and monumentally worse coaching.

dex

July 3rd, 2008 at 2:08 PM ^

1990s OSU talent and mediocre coaching = 10 wins over the rest of the shitty Big Ten and a much more challenging game against a Michigan team with nearly comparable talent and better coaching.

dex

July 3rd, 2008 at 2:10 PM ^

2000s Michigan teams with good talent and mediocre coaching = 8-10 wins against the rest of the shitty Big Ten and a loss to a slightly more talented and significantly better coached OSU team. Attributing this stuff to "not getting the rivalry" or some other mystique bullshit is wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. It's mentally lazy. There are reasons. You just have to spend ten seconds thinking about it and not just dismissing it as "oh must be a curse" or "he's just not PUMPED UP enough"

mjv

July 3rd, 2008 at 2:14 PM ^

MRG, Coops record against roughly the same schedule was typically better than ours as I recall, so his coaching was not materially worse than ours. Their talent, outside of QB which as I mentioned previously is of outsized importance, was clearly better than our based on the NFL draft (from my memory not recently scrubbed draft results). But his guys did not perform at the same level against us as the rest of their schedule. The 1996 Game in C-bus, they were a better team, undefeated, and ready to win the MNC. our defense make a great stand holding them to a field goal in the first half and we start the second half with a slant to Streets that goes for over 50 yards for 6. And their best player, Shawn Springs was responsible for that long TD. He ws in position to make the tackle, but fell on his ass. That's not coaching or talent, it would seem to be choking.

dex

July 3rd, 2008 at 2:15 PM ^

Are you fucking with me? Seriously? FUCKING WITH ME? Is this YOU fucking with me? Shawn Springs slipped. He slipped. It wasn't "choking". Sometimes, you slip. Did you seriously, totally seriously, just attribute Shawn Springs slipping to him "choking"? Oh my god. I am not joking. My brain just exploded. One half of it gone. Out my ears. There is blood everywhere. Choking? Because he slipped?

mjv

July 3rd, 2008 at 2:22 PM ^

Dex, my point is that marginal, little issues can cause swings in outcomes between two relatively evenly matched teams. And on the margin, having your team both physically and mentally prepared can swing a couple of plays that decide the outcome. Consider in many individual sports, the athletes use visualization for pre-run their performance. This is not about their practice habits and physical talent, this is about trying to wring the last 1%-2% of performance out of themselves. In a football game of roughly 120-150 plays,that is two to three plays per game.

chitownblue (not verified)

July 3rd, 2008 at 2:23 PM ^

Dex beat me too that. Shawn Springs slipped. When a player performs poorly in an important situation it is not, ipso facto, choking.

chitownblue (not verified)

July 3rd, 2008 at 2:24 PM ^

mjvancam, I completely agree with that last statement. But those things are left almost exclusively to chance. It is not, for instance, Cooper's lack of big-game coaching ability, that made Shawn Springs slip. It was chance.

mjv

July 3rd, 2008 at 4:35 PM ^

The question is why did he slip? Did he panic and try to over-react, thus moving in such a way that the turf would not support his effort, thus attributable to psychological preparation? I don't know. obviously, I have no data to support my position. While a record of 8-2-1 is more than just a two game slide, it is also likely the that type of outcome falls within 2 standard deviations of a 50/50 split between two well matched teams. It is likely that situations like that will never have enough data to conclude one way or the other.

hat

July 3rd, 2008 at 5:05 PM ^

John Cooper was not that good of a coach, plain and simple. He also sucked in bowl games - are you going to argue that he "didn't understand the Citrus Bowl"? Cooper recruited well, and upgraded OSU's talent level to its present levels. But when he faced a team with comparable talent, he frequently lost. Sometimes that didn't happen in the season until week 11 (although he lost several times to PSU as well, which is often overlooked). Cooper's '95 and '96 teams had the benefit of not playing Northwestern (which won or shared the B10 title and went 2-0 against us) either season.

 

 

hat

July 3rd, 2008 at 4:45 PM ^

As for the Shawn Springs slip, what everyone always forgets is that OSU still was ahead after it happened, 9-7. Fact is, we totally dominated the second half, and even in the first half we played great redzone D, holding them to three FGs. We earned that victory.

chitownblue (not verified)

July 3rd, 2008 at 4:52 PM ^

It's tangential, but I do firmly believe Cooper lost the '97 game for them. Joe Germaine was a signficicantly better QB than Stanley Jackson, but Cooper insisted on playing Jackson, who preceded to throw a pick in the endzone (to Hendricks) and then the gift TD to Andre Weathers.

mjv

July 3rd, 2008 at 4:52 PM ^

I never said we didn't earn it. If you beat the team on the other sideline, regardless of slips and strange bounces, you earned it. (I may question the 2000 Northwestern game where the officials earned it, but that's a separate topic.) The other critical point in the Game besides the Springs slip, was holding them to a field goal following the long run down inside the 10. (I believe in the second quarter.) I was sitting in the permanent / temporary bleachers and when the play ended, all of the Bucknuts were going crazy. The stands were swaying significantly. I was sure that the stands were going to collapse and I was going to die in the Shoe. When they failed to get a TD, the Shoe died. That was the last time that day they had any life. (Maybe the realization that the Coop Curse was settling in sucked the life out of the OSU players and fans? -- what html code do you use for sarcasm??)

hat

July 3rd, 2008 at 5:09 PM ^

Great teams should be able to manage more than 9 points at home. Our D played a great game and once Brian Griese replaced Dreisbach at QB (at halftime), our O got rolling as well. Streets' TD made for the winning margin, but I think we would have won even if it hadn't happened. We obviously would have taken more chances with our redzone play-calling in the two subsequent drives that resulted in FGs. As it was, Lloyd was content to get the three points. We ran the ball like 15 times in a row in the 4th and they couldn't stop us until we got in FG range. That's just being the better team.

poguemahone

July 5th, 2008 at 9:06 PM ^

And I don't think that's up to much debate. He runs the hardest offense to defend in college football, and at Michigan, he'll have the elite-of-the-elite running it. I expect him to beat my Buckeyes in the next three years (probably '09) and to take Big Blue to a championship in about five.

Tim Waymen

July 6th, 2008 at 11:03 PM ^

Buckeye fans also seem to blame Cooper for playing bad players, like his insistence on playing Stanley Jackson. Yeah, Jackson was probably not the best but Woodson is also one of the best, if not the best, DB's in CFB history. Tressel is also a bit of a snake. Supposedly he was behind the drug-sniffing dogs in 04. Call it the old turf argument, but if that turf was not kept in crap conditions, then the outcome of the 2006 Game might have been different. (Remember, they sodded the grass the week before The Game.) The score would most likely be lower. This year (not OSU's fault), Hart and Henne were hurt and the weather sucked. Sucks how things don't go our way sometimes.

Ninja Football

July 6th, 2008 at 11:16 PM ^

Pogue: I was about to say you were one of my favorite new posers, and then you went and ruined it by A)admitting to being a Buckeye fan and B) referring to us as "Big Blue". Just kidding about the Buckeye thing- not everyone can be raised correctly (ziiiing!) No really, it's nice to see some intelligent discourse from the other side of the fence, but never, EVER refer to us as Big Blue- that's Kentucky basketball and the NYGs- anyone who promotes such rubbish of a nickname should be shot with impunity.

poguemahone

July 7th, 2008 at 12:11 AM ^

I'm not going to recant calling you Big Blue. I won't do it ever again, because I'm not a troll, but just to make sure this doesn't turn into a Buckeye-Wolverine love-in, I'm going to be a dick and not apologize for doing it the first time. ;)

Oh, and as far as the Rod-to-the-NFL thing, that's simply cartoonish. He'll be at the pinnacle of his career, and he won't have to change his entire offensive philosophy to do it. Anywhere else would be a major step down except possibly in terms of pay.

Ninja Football

July 6th, 2008 at 11:15 PM ^

Oh, and of course he's gonna lead us to a title, mainly because of what Pogue said, which is what I've been touting all along. The idea he's gonna leave for greener pastures anytime soon is asinine, mainly because we're going to be a machine in a few years, and there won't be a better situation out there.

Daniel L

July 6th, 2008 at 11:22 PM ^

"The question is why did he slip? Did he panic and try to over-react, thus moving in such a way that the turf would not support his effort, thus attributable to psychological preparation? I don't know." This is mindblowing. Are you honestly trying to advance a theory that he panic'ed, overreacted, slipped as a result (because the turf would not support his effort), and this is somehow due to being unprepared psychologically? How about he slipped due to random chance or that the field was terrible? How many slips did we see from Michigan players in 2006 against OSU? Did Lloyd Carr fail to prepare them psychologically? Also, after reviewing the play, he had his back turned to the play, he made a cut after a WR and slipped in the middle of the field. If you somehow believe this is John Cooper's fault, do you also believe that Pat White's fumbles, broken thumb, and concussions are a result of RichRod poorly preparing him?

mjv

July 7th, 2008 at 1:16 AM ^

I doubt that he will be heading to the NFL. I think that given the job Saban did on the Dolphins, the new Arkansas coach (name escapes me) did to Atlanta, and the general lack of success that college coaches have had, it is unlikely that many college coaches in the future will be heading to the NFL. But it is not out of the question that a high profile coach leaves one top rung program to another. Franchione (spl?) left Alabama for Texas A&M. Bo damn near left us for Texas A&M. There are programs out there that will be willing to out pay us or a coach. Also, I recind my comment about cooper not being able to get his team up for Michigan. While it appears on the macro level (2-8-1) there may be something, upon looking at each game, it makes it difficult to argue the point.

Daniel L

July 7th, 2008 at 10:05 AM ^

If RichRod is successful enough that other schools are trying to get him (lots of top 10s, and MNC or two), no one will out pay us.  Look at revenue numbers for athletic programs.  If UM wants to outpay someone for a football coach, they can.  The revenue from the new luxury boxes and PSLs alone is staggering.

Petrino is the Arkansas coach.

 

Also you need a new avatar.  I find it very difficult to be a meta-critical asshole while replying to someone with a 1 year old's picture, and a kid that looks like my godson to boot.

Tim Waymen

July 7th, 2008 at 10:04 AM ^

I like to put it in a matter of if rather than when just so that we don't jinx ourselves or some shit like that. Anyways, I think yes. We have to see how he does here at UM since this is not the Big East, but his track record suggests that he is a great coach. I personally think that he could be one of the best in the country along with Carroll, Stoops, Tressel, and Saban. That said, he coaches well, runs a high-octane offense, keeps his players in good shape, and he will have talent playing for him. There are a few programs that I think are likely to win a NC within the next 7 years, not including this year OSU--at least make it to the NC game; they have to start beating the SEC teams the recruiting class last year was just too good. The question is how will RR play against Tressel? I think that TP could be very hard to stop. I hope Schafer comes up with some good defensive schemes to stop him. Alabama--Saban did it at LSU. He's a great recruiter and a great coach, even if he sucks at life. USC--yeah, but they usually lose a game that they shouldn't Michigan--for all of the reasons I mentioned earlier. Yes, he lost to Pitt in one of the most important games in WVU history, but I think that RR's triumph in the 2005 Sugar Bowl against Georgia says a lot. Pat White was just a freshman then and Mark Richt is a really good coach.

Tim Waymen

July 7th, 2008 at 10:08 AM ^

I meant 2006 Sugar Bowl. The Sugar Bowl for the 05 season.  Whatever.  Keep in mind that this game was played in Atlanta and not New Orleans.  This was basically home turf for the Bulldogs.

btw, I read an interview of Mark Richt, and he seems like a pretty decent guy. He talked about how he wants to help his players reach their dreams and prepare them for life after college, whether or not they make it to the NFL.

West Texas Blue

July 7th, 2008 at 11:17 AM ^

Anyone remember when Florida hired Urban? Other SEC schools were railing on Florida fans, saying Urban's "gimmick" offense wouldn't work in the SEC. Utah in 2004 beat a crappy A&M team, blew through the Mountain West Conference (non-BCS conference), and beat a weak Pittsburgh team in Fiesta Bowl. Many people thought his offense wouldn't translate to the SEC, once he faced the big boys. Well in Urban's 2nd year at Florida, he won a MNC.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, has been in the Big East,a BCS conference, since 2001. He's won 4 conference titles and had three straight 10 win seasons. He beat Georgia and his team dismantled Oklahoma. Everyone is saying the same stuff about Coach Rod as they did for Meyer. Both came from smaller schools with less prestige, resources, and recruiting abilities, and then they upgraded. Coach Rod will do for Michigan what Meyer has done for Florida. Meyer also modeled alot of his offense around Rich Rod. Coach Rod will win big and lead us to a national championship.

Sophocles

July 7th, 2008 at 12:33 PM ^

How long do UM coaches usually last, no matter how bad? This will be no different. Not to say he will be bad. He is already a proven good coach with bad recruits, and now has great ones at his disposal. I say he has a long career with one or two national championships.

Ninja Football

July 7th, 2008 at 1:14 PM ^

I say he's here for the next 15 years or so, wins 4 MNCs and we go to 9 BCS games, then Loeffler takes over. Don't see him going anywhere else, this is a destination job in CFB, and the NFL for him just isn't viable imo.