Will Beilein teams (nearly) always be outmatched at the 4?
Looking at the game with a short Tulsa squad and it seems like a good match-up for us, particularly because Tulsa can't exploit our lack of height at the 4 position. Zak Irvin is a stocky 6'6" but is usually forced to guard guys a fair bit bigger than himself.
That got me wondering if being undersized at the 4 is something Beilein teams will always struggle with on the defensive end. Given that our main sets are four out one in, Beilein ideally wants a player that's 6'7"+ who can put the ball on the floor and shoot well from outside. However, any player like that is going to be a hot commodity. Project-type guys like Uthoff are tough to predict and the ones that obviously fit the mold (TJ Leaf) make for a tough recruiting pull. Given the rarity of the ideal 4, it seems likely that Beilein will frequently be forced to roll with the less rare 6'5"-6'6" guy who can do the things on offense that his system requires and we'll end up having to pay the price on the defensive end.
Think this will continue to be an issue down the line? Mo Wagner may fit the bill but I'm not seeing anyone else on the squad who has the 4 skills and size to fix the problem once Zak leaves.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:10 AM ^
March 14th, 2016 at 11:12 AM ^
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March 14th, 2016 at 11:12 AM ^
March 14th, 2016 at 11:16 AM ^
Apparently Beilein would rather get outphysicaled down low consistently than recruit a dude who can bang bodies in the paint with limited range. Shame since Detroit is right next door and produces a good number of em.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:20 AM ^
is that the bigs that we have are not particularly good shooters either.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:23 AM ^
this is the question i have about Belein. ?
March 14th, 2016 at 11:27 AM ^
March 14th, 2016 at 11:39 AM ^
Any time I assume a new job, I'm usually spending too much time trying to figure out how to dial out of the phone system. This goes back to my time at the Gandy Dancer, shucking oysters.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^
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March 14th, 2016 at 12:14 PM ^
That is not the AD's role. However, evaluation of the program and grading the success is the role of the AD.
than last despite losing all our senior leadership/a third of our starting six, so I don't think that Manuel is switching coaches anytime soon. Moritz needs to succeed, and Teske/Davis need to contribute in a serious way--such success as we have had this year is almost in spite of Donnal and Doyle. Would love to see Beilein maybe get more help with recruiting if he seeks it.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:33 AM ^
Basketball in general is going away from the two-big man model. Teams have recognized that having two big guys who can't score more than a few feet from the rim just ends up clogging up the middle offensively and makes it harder to space the floor. And on defense, those big 4s are increasingly having trouble, as they have to chase smaller guys on the perimeter.
My issue is not so much with the 4 as the 5. I'm fine with playing four guys on the perimeter, but the 5 needs to be a tough dude who can defend the interior and hit the boards. We haven't had that since Morgan graduated.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:08 PM ^
March 14th, 2016 at 12:16 PM ^
This. Morgan was not fabulous at any one thing (except taking a charge . . . man, could he take a charge), but he could hold his own down low so guys like Hass can't just park there and leisurely back their way to the basket and drop the ball over our heads.
We don't have to have Patrick Ewing in Beilein's system, but we need more than we get from Donnal / Doyle trying to play the 5.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:26 PM ^
Jordan Morgan was an engineering student (fergodsakes).
Therefore, Beilein needs to head up to NORTH CAMPUS and find himself a new post player.
I would love to be heading into the tourney this year w/Morgan in the middle... i regret ever saying ANYTHING negative about Morgan, now that we have the revolving door in the middle.
the 4 ring circus of Donnal.Doyle, Wilson & Wagner is like watching a high school JV clown show.. I cannot believe that i wished JMorgan away in the past, wow do i miss Max Bielfeldt also... I am speechless when i see our collection of big men try to "play the position"???if they play like this now what were they playing like in high school when Beilein was scouting them?? oh well go blue!
was short and got owned pretty badly by Zeller and other quality bigs. He was a very smart player and he was in the right spots at the right time as a great help defender, but let's not kid ourselves, he wasn't a top-notch interior defender. He got the most out of his size and athleticism and that's all you can ask for, but he was not tall enough or long enough to be the kind of rim protector that can make up for the horrendous defense that Stauskas and others were playing. Hence in his 5th year, Michigan was ranked in the 100s at defense - barely better than we are this year.
What covered up for the bad defense was having the best offense in basketball.
Post guys like Hammons are pretty rare so there's no reason to recruit to stop the one or two you'll play all year. What we need is length. Protecting the rim is more about being able to help on slashers and alter/block shots than needing to be an immovable object. Plus, length can over up for a lot of deficiencies even when guys get position on you.
And the importance of length over size in Beilein's offense is that we need guys that can play the pick and roll and finish, which requires some nimble feet, not guys that play back to the basket post ups. This is the way the NBA is going because the length and lateral movement combo is a more efficient trait on both ends of the floor than bulk.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:24 AM ^
Teske is known as unpolished on the offensive end and a high caliber shot blocker on the defensive end. He's undersized, but a lot of bigs are coming into college. He should be able to fill out to be 240-250.
Davis was oversized and was forced to lose weight in order to get an offer (he's down to about 250 last I recall). Before Michigan got his commitment, Wisconsin, ND, and MSU were all showing very recent interest.
So yeah, not sure that's particularly true.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:29 AM ^
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March 14th, 2016 at 11:42 AM ^
But they can each be more than physical enough in the post to provide solid post defense. They may not be enforcers down there, but if they can provide consistency on the defensive end in a positive fashion than they can be more than effective enough.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:22 PM ^
Like talked about below. That we had a 5 that could rebound and play defense. I won't hold my breath though.
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nor is early 1970s-style hoop.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:33 PM ^
They have the physical capacity to be a factor as a shot blocker and rebounder. Other than Doyle, no other Michigan centers are viable options physically. Michigan needs to stop recruiting 6'6-6'8 guys like Donnal, Bielfedlt, Wagner, and Wilson to play the 5. They also need to stop recruiting guys like that to play the 4, because it never seems to play out that way.
They need more athletes at the 4. The need more strength and size at the 5. No more tweeners (aka traditional stretch 4s).
to play the 5. Bielfeldt was put there out of necessity last year. Beilein has stated he sees both Wilson and Wagner as 4s in the future. I think Wagner will develop into a real matchup problem for our opponents.
It's silly to claim he's recriting 6'6-6'-8 guys to play center. Wagner, Wilson, Davis and Teske are all taller or much taller, Really only Bielfeldt and Morgan were that size.
Beilein also said he would play McGary at the 4 and Robinson at the 3. Guess what - he didn't, even when he had Morgan and Horford capably manning the center position. He preferred playing guards and wings to playing bigs, and he always will.
It may not be his intent, but he keeps playing the 6'6-6'8 guys at center. He played Sims there, he played Smotrycz there, and now he's playing Wagner and Wilson there.
Davis and Teske reflect a change in recruiting at the 5 postion, and it's long overdue.
About guys ending up at the 5, but Wagner is 6'10", and Doyle, Donnal, and Wilson are all 6'9".
By comparison, guys about 6'9" on roster (with the understanding they are college rosters, so there is some grain of salt to be taken; in brackets is inches above 6'):
Illinois: 3 (10, 10, 11)
Indiana: 2 (9, 10)
Iowa: 2 (9, 13)
Maryland: 6 (9, 9, 9, 11, 11, 13)
Michigan: 4 (9, 9, 9, 10)
MSU: 3 (9, 9, 11)
Minnesota: 4 (9, 9, 9, 9)
Nebraska: 1 (10)
Northwestern: 2 (10, 12)
OSU: 3 (10, 10, 11)
PSU: 3 (9, 10, 13)
Purdue: 4 (9, 9, 12, 14)
Rutgers: 3 (9, 10, 11)
Wisconsin: 3 (9, 9, 11)
The point being that Michigan's overall height really isn't the issue here, relative to other B1G teams (outside a few like Purdue and Maryland)
We can quibble about the inch or two, but the larger point is simply that those guys aren't BIG enough. They aren't strong enough to avoid getting pushed around or long enough to affect a lot of shots. Beilein can recruit legitimate 6'10-6'11 guys or even long-armed or thick-bodied 6'9 guys, but he (usually) doesn't. He's recruiting players who have the size of 4 and playing them at the 5.
Blake McLimans was 6'10 but weighed 210 coming out of high school, while Morgan was 6'8 and 240. Only one of these guys was a viable Big Ten center. Horford was 6'9 and 185 coming out of high school, but he had the frame to bulk up to 250 and took a few years to get him up to playing weight. Bielfeldt was thick enough, but at 6'6 it was always going to be a battle.
So OK, maybe we can argue that Donnal/Wilson/Wagner are going to get there (as Horford did), but it's always going to take 2-3 years before guys this size can stand up to the rigors of Big Ten play. If that's your model (2-3 years of development), you had better take a QB-like approach to the center position and get one every year.
I think that the coaching staff gets that now (after the lessons of last year) and that's why Davis/Teske reflect both BIGGER and MORE approaches to recruiting centers.
much better to recruit length and add the bulk during college. The few bigs that have NBA ready bodies are going to UK, Duke and Kansas so we are getting them and we don't need them.
Deyonta Davis for MSU is the exact same size as Wilson (per kenpom), which is perfectly good size for a 4. The problem is Davis plays smarter and is seemingly better coached as a true frosh than Wilson is in his second year.
The comparison to Wilson is not real instructive.
ESPN lists Davis 1 inch taller and 5 pounds heavier than Wilson. Wilson's issue at the 4 have nothing to do with size, but rather skill and quickness. His issues at the 5 have to do with size and strength.
Yes, Wilson fits the physical characteristics of a 'traditional' 4, the kind that would play at MSU or Purdue which favor that sort of thing for their forwards.
March 15th, 2016 at 12:27 PM ^
Wagner is 6'10", and Doyle, Donnal, and Wilson are all 6'9".
Problem is (other than potentially Wilson) - they're all "below the rim" players.
We don't need taller players - we need guys of a similar height who are athletic shot blockers and rebounders.
I don't care if they're 7' and I don't care if they can make anything further from the rim than a dunk - we need Dennis Rodman types playing the 5.
is 6'10 and has looong wingspan. Wagner is also 6'10. They're the tallest guys on the team. Wilson is probably the most athletic guy on the team and is developing a jumper. If he can calm his puppy dog energy down, stop turning it over and figure out where to be on defense, he could be a perfect 4 and a total beast on both ends of the floor. Remember, Adrien Payne was a five star and it took him 3-4 years to figure it out. Wilson could be a very similar player.
Neither of these guys are actually 6'10. Neither guy has an unusually long wing span. Both are too skinny/not strong enough to play the 5 at this point. I agree the size can be developed but it takes 2-3 years. So, if you want to bring along guys slowly like this, you better devote 5 or 6 scholarships to the C position.
Wilson is never going to start at the 4 for Michigan in a meaningful game. He's just not good enough. He can't drive or pass very well. His shooting is mediocre, at best. He could start one day at the 5 -- maybe.
Payne averaged 11 rebounds and 4 blocks per 40 minutes as a freshman and his rebounding rate was already pretty solid. He got a lot better, but he was a decent rotation player right away. He improved on O a lot but he was useful on defense right away.
They're as tall as anyone else listed at 6'10, which is tall for college basketball. And plenty tall enough to be very good at the 4. That's all that matters. Yes, they're not and should not be 5s. And that's the whole point. If they can develop some skills (and mostly smarts) to go along with the physical talent, they'll be a huge upgrade at the 4. We don't need a 4 that can drive or pass. Your beloved GR3 didn't drive or pass. They just need to hit 3s at a decent enough clip and finish and play D.
Do you know Wilson's wing span? You're confident it's not long. I don't know it, but he's a promising shot blocker already. Adrien Payne as freshman: 9.9, as soph: 6.9. Wilson as RS fresh: 8.4 (alebit in small sample of minutes). Payne played less than a quarter of his teams minutes as freshman so it's not like he was playing that much more. Payne was a five star and still took 3 years to be able to play more than half his teams minues. Wilson has a chance.
OUCH... not suprising from Coach B ... can't change his stripes now!
From what I've seen - both are pretty unathletic.
They're big - but they aren't "quick twitch" kinda guys.
help down the road if he can add a bit of upper body strength and build on his skillset. Frank Kaminsky was a "finesse" player and he became the absolute ideal 5 for a Beilein system (and NPOY) and was still a monster D rebounder and decent shot blocker despite being 240 wet. I wouldn't bury Teske yet.
Hopefully Teske or Davis will be ready by then. Or if Doyle is ready to be the starting center, maybe Donnal can move to the 4 next season. If Donnal can just shoot 35% from 3, teams will have to guard him on the perimeter.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:17 AM ^
I'm not contesting your larger point one way or the other, but Irvin is listed on the roster as being 215. If that's accurate, that ain't stocky by a long shot.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:22 AM ^
I guess what I meant by that is that he's pretty strong for his weight. Broad shouldered, bigger upper body, and has gotten better at guarding guys significantly larger than himself.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:34 PM ^
Don't help you in the post.
He has a big ass too.
It's not his back slouching, but I think he hangs his head forward. Go google Zak Irvin pictures, his head is almost always sticking forward rather than holding it straight up. It's a bad posture thing that makes him look a bit shorter and like he is slouching (though the rest of his posture seems fine, it's just his head hanging forward rather than holding it vertically).
For instance, here's him looking nearly the same height as Levert, but noticeably leaning forward with his head
March 14th, 2016 at 11:18 AM ^
I think we need to focus more on rebounding at the 4 and 5 positions. Your 1, 2, and 3 can be slashers and shooters. Then you can go with an undersized 4 off the bench if you like the matchup but to not even have that option hurts you against the likes of teams like Purdue.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:11 PM ^
March 14th, 2016 at 12:40 PM ^
We need athleticism at the 4. It's not a coincidence that Michigan's best success came when GR3 was manning the 4 position.
GR3 didn't rebound that well, didn't shoot that well, but he was a major force for Michigan because he was a versatile and well-rounded athlete.
One of the most underrated players to ever come through the program. Oh and hey, GR3 is hitting a higher percentage of his 3s this year than Nik Stauskas and may end up outlasting everyone he played with in the NBA (though my money is still on either THJ or Caris).
GR3 played with NBA talent / ideal college players at every position around him. He was a nice complimentary player. Put him on this team and he wouldn't make it that much better. Like you said, he wasn't a good rebounder, wasn't a good shooter, and he was entirely dependent on being the benecifiary of all the attention the rest of the team got. If he didn't have other creators and other guys demanding attention like he had with Stauskas and Morgan running a KILLER Pick and Roll and Caris penetrating, GR3 would sit the in corner and mostly disappear.
He did and does have potential because of his athleticism but until he learns to shoot and rebound and do all those things you mentioned that he couldn't do, he's not going to be a useful NBA player and wasn't more than a promising but merely complimentary college player.