Will the B1G get 8 teams in? Blind Resume Thursday

Submitted by twotrueblue on March 14th, 2019 at 9:08 AM

First, a shoutout to Leaders And Best for mentioning this website in the thread yesterday. Extremely helpful. I pulled all the information today from there, so it's all NET rankings and not RPI like yesterday.

Yesterday's rankings were as follows (third column is average ranking):

A lot of people were surprised by how Houston's resume compared with Gonzaga's, and that was really the only tossup. Texas Tech was rated #1 and #2 by a few, but mostly was rated #3 and even rated #4 behind Wofford by one user. Wofford and Virginia Tech were consistently ranked #4 and #5 respectively.

Today the Big Ten Tournament really kicks off and we'll find out if the Big Ten bubble teams can get their resumes up to par. But before they do, how do you think they stack up against the competition?

Comments

DCGrad

March 14th, 2019 at 9:18 AM ^

Pretty big dichotomy in with these teams' best win and worst loss.  If the field wasn't 68 teams, I don't think most would get in.  B has the best q1 record but the worst q2 record and tied for worst overall record but has the best win. I think I would go A, B, D, E, C.

A has a good q2 record and no q3 losses.  Not the best win, but not the worst loss either.  That q1 record is abysmal though.

Ihatebux

March 14th, 2019 at 9:22 AM ^

B>>>>>D>C>A>E

I really have a hard time seeing any of these teams making the tournament.   Those Q2 and Q3 records are horrible.  One thing missing in this is that "B" beat the #8 Kenpom team TWICE, at home and away!!

A is Creighton

B is Indiana

C is Florida

D is Bucknuts

E is Clemson

TrueBlue2003

March 14th, 2019 at 5:26 PM ^

I disagree with B being the best here.  True they have the best Q1 record, but that Q2 record is horrible.  Hard to let a team in with a 29% win pct against mediocre teams.  Easier to forgive a teams inability to beat elite teams than a teams inability to beat meh teams.

Probably moot now that they lost to OSU.  IU is out and the buckeyes are almost certainly in, especially since they won with Wesson and made and argument for the committee to discount games played without him.

Agree that Clemson has to be out. Probably Creighton unless they play their way in.  Florida quadrant resume looks meh, but that shiny NET ranking is probably enough for them.

pz

March 14th, 2019 at 9:32 AM ^

B>D>A>C>E

B's 6 Q1 wins hold up to me despite a rough Q2 record.

D squeaks by A, which is ahead of C due to quantity of Q2 games with a decent record and no Q3 losses.

E = nope.

bdneely4

March 14th, 2019 at 9:42 AM ^

B, D, A, C, E.  My rankings are all based off hoping E is Ohio State.  It has been fun not having to hear anything from their fanbase for a few months.

tkokena1

March 14th, 2019 at 10:02 AM ^

B>A>D>E>C

B - 6 Q1 wins is impressive for a bubble team but they are the only ones with a losing record in Q2. Still ranked highest off of Q1 record and having the best win. 

A & D - Toss up between the two but went with A since they have a comparable Q1 record with a better Q2 record and no Q3 losses. 

E & C  - neither team should be in tournament but went with E even though they have an abysmal Q1 record, they have a better Q2 record and don't have any Q3 losses. Plus, better overall record with more Q1 and Q2 games. 

mfan_in_ohio

March 14th, 2019 at 10:41 AM ^

That values q3 games equally with q1, which seems silly.  If you restrict it to q1 and q2 the order is 

1. A

2. D

3. B

4. E

5. C

from there, you can ding c and d for their q3 losses, and credit b for the best wins.  It's hard to parse a and b but they are the top 2. C and E are definitely the bottom 2.

 

Rasmus

March 14th, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^

B C A D E

Thanks for doing this. I can't say I've ever tried to think like this -- for me, the number of Q1 wins is the most important thing, as it means you've shown you can win against tournament-worthy competition, and not just as a fluke. So you deserve a shot at the crown.

So Team B's 6 Q1 wins put them at the top of the list. Bad losses are less troubling for me, because all teams take time to develop in this era.

On that note, I'll say I think Michigan's development as a team has been masked this season by its early success. It was a weird sort of perfect storm of Iggy's breakout start (before opponents had figured him out) and the rest of the starters' + Livers' experience giving CC and DDJ time to develop in practice while not being exposed in games. Then Iggy has to go through an adjustment period, but by then Beilein has the luxury of not really having to worry about the bubble and he can continue teaching and experimenting with different combinations on the floor. By the time CM gets injured in the first MSU game, the team is pretty well set for March.

Now we just have to pray Charles will be back because with him this is a Final Four team. Without him, all bets are off since it really depends on some measure of luck with regard to matchups, referees, and opposing coaches.

bronxblue

March 14th, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^

The problem with bubble teams is that their Q1 records are almost always bad; if they were better, they wouldn't be on the bubble.  This isn't some great insight, but it makes looking at the top-line results tough.  Honestly, I'm more impressed by A because they had the "best" loss and seemed pretty consistent at beating teams like them or worse.  B got a couple more shots at Q1 wins and won them but struggled to beat Q2 teams; B is obviously IU so you're rewarding them for being good to start the year and beating MSU twice.  That doesn't feel like a good enough resume to me pending how they do in the BTT.  

A and C feel like the two best candidates to me.

ehatch

March 14th, 2019 at 11:41 AM ^

1. B -- The 5 losses vs Q2 is the worst in the group, but the 6-9 record vs Q1 is by far the best, and they've played the fewest Q3 games, meaning they haven't padded their record much. Plus they have the best win.

2. A -- Best loss of the group. The most combined Q1 and Q2 wins in the group. But worst best win of the group

3. D -- A Q3 loss, but not a disastrous Q1 and Q2 record (just merely bad).

4. E -- The 1-10 Q1 record is disastrous, but the rest of it is okay

5. C -- 2 Q3 losses, the worst loss of the group and only 6 combined Q1 and Q2 wins. 

 

Overall, I'd want to see what other bubble resumes look like, because all of these are pretty bad, not sure I'd let any but B in. 

4th phase

March 14th, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^

1. B

2. A

3. D

4. C

5. E

B has the best Q1 record, no Q3 losses and best win. A, C, and D, are all really similar but A has a significantly better worse loss. C and D are a toss up but D seems slightly better based on Q1 wins and Q3 losses. E looks like they played 1 good game all year.

Monk

March 14th, 2019 at 1:02 PM ^

I can't see the loser of the OSU-IU game getting in the tourney, the winner should have a good chance as the bubble this year is really bad.  I think Minn and Neb need to win today to have a chance but Minn is not even on the bubble in the bracketologies.

Chippewa Blue

March 14th, 2019 at 2:04 PM ^

1. B 

2. A

3. C

4. D

5. E

Close between B and A, then a gap and extremely close between the C, D, E. All these teams probably deserve to be out but someone has to round out the 68.

Trizz

March 14th, 2019 at 4:59 PM ^

A - D - B - E - C

A having the worst loss be #66 is solid along with a pretty good q2 and q3 record.

D got moved behind A because the Q3 loss for me.

B has a solid #8 win, but 2-5 in Q2 is a bit shaky.

E having a 1-10 Q1 record shows they have a hard time hanging w/ big time teams so would have a hard time outside of week 1.

6-2 in Q3 for C was a killer to me imo.

Michigan Arrogance

March 14th, 2019 at 6:26 PM ^

So here are my thoughts when judging bobble team. I'm not too worried about Q1 record - we already know these teams aren't elite and don't campre to the top teams so Q1 doesn't tells us much new info. I don't like judging based on best W, worst L. These teams are more than those 2 days.

Therefore, Q2 and Q3 should be the determining factor IMO.

B is the worst at 5-5 and a solid losing record to Q2s

A & E of course are the best in Q23 - I'll use Q1 at the tie breaker that goes to A

C & D in the midle could go ether way - I'll go with D since they have 2 more Q12 wins with 2 extra games. So:

 

A > E >D >C >B