Why is our KenPom dropping?

Submitted by JamesBondHerpesMeds on January 11th, 2019 at 12:23 PM

I've not had a chance to wonk away at KenPom, but I find it intriguing/concerning that we've dropped to 7th in the KenPom rankings. Is this because:

- Other teams are simply refining their offense/defense and winning more emphatically than us?

- We're not winning games as emphatically as we used to?

- Something else?




January 11th, 2019 at 1:29 PM ^

Sometimes I wish people would remember and appreciate the Kenpom ranking I used to have, instead of just focusing on "What's wrong with you tonight? Do you even want to play? Do you even have passion for the game?" But it's just that the season is a little older now, you have to be patient, it takes a little bit longer to warm up and get up and down the court. Is what they probably are saying. 

Edit for the unaware: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPf3BBtwOYA


January 11th, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^

Largely due to underwhelming performances against the dregs of the schedule.  Also because Michigan's 2 point defense was performing at an unsustainable level at the beginning of the year.  Over the last 8 games or so, teams have started converting way more 2s, leading Michigan's D to drop from #1 by a mile to #4.  


January 11th, 2019 at 1:14 PM ^

Yeah, because teams are starting to bank in prayer 3s, fire a rocket from 5 feet that hits that little soft spot on the back of the rim where the ball hits the glass and rim at the same time and doesn't carom out to 1/2 court but rather falls harmlessly through the basket.  Maybe that's the Luck Factor previously mentioned which should help us.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The Maize Halo

January 11th, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^

Look at the calculations. The difference between our 4 Adj. D and the teams above us is smaller than the difference between our 23 Adj. O and the teams above us.

-- Said differently, we don't have as much better defensive efficiency as we have worse offensive efficiency.


January 11th, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^

Michigan is also closer to #3 than they are to #8.  The difference between #3-#7 isn't that substantial.

The KenPom tiers do pass the eye test:

Tier 1: Duke.  They're pretty damn good, to say the least.

Tier 2: U-M, MSU, UNC, Gonzaga, Tennessee.  These teams can give Duke a great game.  But they're also going to be a slight underdog in a game vs. Duke.

Tier 3: Virginia.  They're technically #2 in KenPom by the pure statistics, but these guys don't get the benefit of the doubt anymore.  Nobody trusts them until they actually prove it in March.

Tier 4: TT, Kansas, Wisconsin, et cetera.  Good but a level below.


January 11th, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^

Two reasons:

1 - The result of a game is a single data point and isn't necessarily predictive.  In fact, it isn't even necessarily reflective of the game -- you've certainly seen games where the better team lost.

2 - I like to try to understand things at a less superficial level.

To suggest that the team is flawless because they're 16-0 is to demonstrate naïvety bordering on cluelessness.


January 11th, 2019 at 5:07 PM ^

Okay, and according to S&P we have a top 25 offense in football and a better passing offense than Washington State. Both points are ridiculous but people still attempt to use those numbers to make a point. To me, thats clueless. But whatever floats your boat. Sure looks to me like we're the second best team in basketball behind Duke.


January 11th, 2019 at 7:33 PM ^

M put up 39 on OSU, 42 on PSU, 38 on Wisconsin, 21 on Sparty at Sparty (three times as many points as Oregon!), a whole bunch on some other teams.

I realize the bowl game that didn't matter is fresh in people's minds but during the season Michigan scored the most or second per drive against most of the teams they played.  If you don't think it was a top 25 offense, then you're just wallowing in sorrow about the bowl still.

And Michigan's passing attack was more efficient than WSU's per pass.  They just didn't pass nearly as often so didn't rack up the counting stats.  I'll grant you that passing as frequently as WSU did probably makes your efficiency go down and it's reasonable to think Michigan might not have been as efficient had every defense they faced known they were going to pass it on such a high percentage of plays.  S&P+ is a per play stat and can't take that possibility into account but there's no easy way to do that.


January 11th, 2019 at 6:29 PM ^

I thought it was the opposite, that not saying Voldemort's name strengthened him because it increased the general fear the guy's name brought with it.  It's like in horror movies where you don't see the monster for a long time but he's always there, ever-present, waiting to strike.  Much more terrifying than seeing the monster's face in every scene or knowing exactly what it looks like from the beginning.  Fear of the unknown and all that stuff.

BTB grad

January 11th, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^

Being undefeated and ranked #2 in the country yet complaining about Kenpom is like doubling your salary yet complaining that you’ve moved up a tax bracket. Chill out, enjoy the season and the (double digit) wins. 


January 11th, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^

Michigan didn't blow out some teams it should have while other teams were and so they were improving while Michigan has stayed stagnant.


January 11th, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^

It's not -- or, at least, not by much.

Today: +26.28, #7
1/1: +25.27, #4
12/15: +26.24, #4
12/1: +25.14, #6

The answer is that other teams have exceeded their ratings by more than Michigan has recently.