Why is our KenPom dropping?
I've not had a chance to wonk away at KenPom, but I find it intriguing/concerning that we've dropped to 7th in the KenPom rankings. Is this because:
- Other teams are simply refining their offense/defense and winning more emphatically than us?
- We're not winning games as emphatically as we used to?
- Something else?
January 11th, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
KenPom loves the dick that's why
January 11th, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^
As I get older, I find my own KenPom dropping too quickly as well.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:56 PM ^
Offensive Efficiency way down, just hoping my Luck Factor carries the day.
January 11th, 2019 at 1:29 PM ^
Sometimes I wish people would remember and appreciate the Kenpom ranking I used to have, instead of just focusing on "What's wrong with you tonight? Do you even want to play? Do you even have passion for the game?" But it's just that the season is a little older now, you have to be patient, it takes a little bit longer to warm up and get up and down the court. Is what they probably are saying.
Edit for the unaware: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPf3BBtwOYA
January 11th, 2019 at 7:04 PM ^
Fuck Kenpom and that bullshit Olympic ice skating judged college football ranking system too. The CFP is the most corrupt method of crowning a champion in all of sports. W’s are all that matters...but I digress.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
Because of assholes who ask if we want the basketball team to lose.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^
bravo!
January 11th, 2019 at 1:13 PM ^
So KenPom is now factoring fan reaction into the rankings? Interesting. (great comment, BTW)
January 11th, 2019 at 4:36 PM ^
Twitter responses are a big component in their rankings.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
Largely due to underwhelming performances against the dregs of the schedule. Also because Michigan's 2 point defense was performing at an unsustainable level at the beginning of the year. Over the last 8 games or so, teams have started converting way more 2s, leading Michigan's D to drop from #1 by a mile to #4.
January 11th, 2019 at 1:14 PM ^
Yeah, because teams are starting to bank in prayer 3s, fire a rocket from 5 feet that hits that little soft spot on the back of the rim where the ball hits the glass and rim at the same time and doesn't carom out to 1/2 court but rather falls harmlessly through the basket. Maybe that's the Luck Factor previously mentioned which should help us. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
January 11th, 2019 at 2:24 PM ^
This is so funny. I know exactly what you mean cause I said the same things during yesterday’s game.
January 11th, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
There have been a lot of opponents shots lately that have missed so badly they've gone in (accidental banks, the dead spot you mention, weird guys, whatever). That will slow down.
January 13th, 2019 at 11:26 AM ^
because that never happens to anyone else
January 11th, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
This is a first world problem. Who cares - just keep winning...
January 11th, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
Look at the calculations. The difference between our 4 Adj. D and the teams above us is smaller than the difference between our 23 Adj. O and the teams above us.
-- Said differently, we don't have as much better defensive efficiency as we have worse offensive efficiency.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^
and said differently, I feel a bit more like I do now than when I first got here.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
Michigan is also closer to #3 than they are to #8. The difference between #3-#7 isn't that substantial.
The KenPom tiers do pass the eye test:
Tier 1: Duke. They're pretty damn good, to say the least.
Tier 2: U-M, MSU, UNC, Gonzaga, Tennessee. These teams can give Duke a great game. But they're also going to be a slight underdog in a game vs. Duke.
Tier 3: Virginia. They're technically #2 in KenPom by the pure statistics, but these guys don't get the benefit of the doubt anymore. Nobody trusts them until they actually prove it in March.
Tier 4: TT, Kansas, Wisconsin, et cetera. Good but a level below.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:55 PM ^
I think we've been winning games by around or above the KenPom prediction. My guess would be other teams are winning more convincingly (MSU) and therefore they're jumping us. Like many have said, the difference is thin.
January 11th, 2019 at 1:00 PM ^
Hate to say it, but that's about right. There's Duke, first, and maybe six or seven teams that appear roughly on par after them. It's not hard to see how that happened, as Duke had three of the top five recruits of '18 plus Tre Jones.
January 11th, 2019 at 1:17 PM ^
They must have freed up a ton of space under the salary cap in order to afford those free agent signings.
January 11th, 2019 at 4:37 PM ^
They have a salary cap?
January 11th, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
To answer your questions, yes.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
inflation due to low unemployment and high wages. also high interest rates ain't helping either.
January 11th, 2019 at 1:08 PM ^
And just to piggyback on this: the stats may look gaudy, but none of it is necessarily helping the common man.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
Fretting over our Ken Pom ranking during this season is a sign that you may have a serious sports anxiety issue and you should consider getting help.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
Pretty much describes about 40% of the people on this Board. And I am being kind with my estimate...
January 11th, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
I cannot for the life of me figure out why people care about advanced stats like this, in football or basketball. Why waste your time worrying about what Kenpom, S&P, and whatever say? They're formulas and formulas have flaws. We're 16-0, there's no flaws there.
January 11th, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^
Two reasons:
1 - The result of a game is a single data point and isn't necessarily predictive. In fact, it isn't even necessarily reflective of the game -- you've certainly seen games where the better team lost.
2 - I like to try to understand things at a less superficial level.
To suggest that the team is flawless because they're 16-0 is to demonstrate naïvety bordering on cluelessness.
January 11th, 2019 at 5:07 PM ^
Okay, and according to S&P we have a top 25 offense in football and a better passing offense than Washington State. Both points are ridiculous but people still attempt to use those numbers to make a point. To me, thats clueless. But whatever floats your boat. Sure looks to me like we're the second best team in basketball behind Duke.
January 11th, 2019 at 7:33 PM ^
M put up 39 on OSU, 42 on PSU, 38 on Wisconsin, 21 on Sparty at Sparty (three times as many points as Oregon!), a whole bunch on some other teams.
I realize the bowl game that didn't matter is fresh in people's minds but during the season Michigan scored the most or second per drive against most of the teams they played. If you don't think it was a top 25 offense, then you're just wallowing in sorrow about the bowl still.
And Michigan's passing attack was more efficient than WSU's per pass. They just didn't pass nearly as often so didn't rack up the counting stats. I'll grant you that passing as frequently as WSU did probably makes your efficiency go down and it's reasonable to think Michigan might not have been as efficient had every defense they faced known they were going to pass it on such a high percentage of plays. S&P+ is a per play stat and can't take that possibility into account but there's no easy way to do that.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:32 PM ^
We've hit our KenPom expected margin almost exactly for the past 2-3 games (where we've fallen from 4th to 7th) so must be other teams passing us up.
January 11th, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^
This is it. Michigan's total number has gone up from the mid 25s to the mid 26s over the last month or so. It's just that other teams are passing us.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
Our KenPom went in the pool.....shrinkage occurred.
January 11th, 2019 at 1:10 PM ^
My billiard balls actually start headin' for the side pockets when I start to get up above the thigh.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:35 PM ^
It's all those banked in 3 pointers just before the half we're giving up.
January 11th, 2019 at 1:11 PM ^
It does seem like we've had a string of games where opponents made a lot of low percentage shots. Maybe it begins to even out.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:35 PM ^
KenPom is like Voldemort, the more you say his name, the more power he gains. It's ok to fear him, but to speak his name is to strengthen him.
January 11th, 2019 at 6:29 PM ^
I thought it was the opposite, that not saying Voldemort's name strengthened him because it increased the general fear the guy's name brought with it. It's like in horror movies where you don't see the monster for a long time but he's always there, ever-present, waiting to strike. Much more terrifying than seeing the monster's face in every scene or knowing exactly what it looks like from the beginning. Fear of the unknown and all that stuff.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^
Who Cares
Just win baby
January 11th, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^
Being undefeated and ranked #2 in the country yet complaining about Kenpom is like doubling your salary yet complaining that you’ve moved up a tax bracket. Chill out, enjoy the season and the (double digit) wins.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:41 PM ^
Personally, I'd love to have us be undefeated and get a #1 seed. When KenPom and BPI suggest that the latter is not currently reasonable, I think it's a fair question to ask.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:50 PM ^
#3 in NET and #3 in Torvik though
Bracket Matrix has us as second most likely #1 seed
Kenpom is great but is not all that
Also our SoS is growing and will even more
Patience, grasshopper
January 11th, 2019 at 1:40 PM ^
Would be a fair question if the season ended on January 11.
January 11th, 2019 at 1:59 PM ^
Personally, I'd love to double my salary and move up a tax bracket.
January 11th, 2019 at 2:05 PM ^
Kenpom isn't trying to predict NCAA seedlines just margin of victory if two teams played. All bracketologists have M on the 1 line (the few in the matrix that don't are extreme outliers/homers).
January 11th, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
Michigan didn't blow out some teams it should have while other teams were and so they were improving while Michigan has stayed stagnant.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
It's not -- or, at least, not by much.
Today: +26.28, #7
1/1: +25.27, #4
12/15: +26.24, #4
12/1: +25.14, #6
The answer is that other teams have exceeded their ratings by more than Michigan has recently.
January 11th, 2019 at 12:55 PM ^
It's amazing to me there are so many alternate answers above that aren't this.
I thought we were KenPom nerds here, people!