Why Michigan could make the Fiesta Bowl.

Submitted by Dawggoblue on November 15th, 2012 at 2:42 PM

Even if Michigan doesn't make the Rose Bowl, we could end up in the Fiesta Bowl.  I know there is a lot of football to be played, but none of these things are even unlikely to happen.

 

1    Kansas State    10-0    Wins out, goes to NC.
2    Oregon               10-0    Wins out, goes to NC.
3    Notre Dame      10-0    Wins out, replaces Oregon in Rose Bowl.
4    Alabama             9-1    Wins out, goes to Sugar Bowl.
5    Georgia              9-1    1 will get BCS at large.
6    Florida                9-1    1 will get BCS at large.
7    LSU                     8-2    1 will get BCS at large.
8    Texas A&M         8-2    1 will get BCS at large.
9    South Carolina  8-2    1 will get BCS at large.
10    Florida State    9-1    Wins out, goes to Orange Bowl.
11    Clemson          9-1    Loses to South Carolina, falls out of top 14.
12    Oklahoma        7-2    Plays OSU, Baylor, and WVU.  Loses 1 and falls out of top 14.
13    Stanford            8-2    Loses to Oregon, falls out of top 14.
14    Nebraska         8-2    Wins out, goes to Rose Bowl, or loses to WI and falls out of top 14.
15    Texas                8-2    Loses to KSU.
16    Oregon State   7-2    Loses to Oregon.
17    UCLA                8-2    Either beats USC and loses to Oregon, or loses to USC and possibly Stanford.
18    USC                 7-3    Same situation as UCLA.
19    Louisville        9-1    Wins out, goes to Orange Bowl as last BCS pick.
20    LA Tech           9-1    Wont climb high enough.
21    Michigan         7-3    If wins out, goes to Fiesta Bowl.
22    Rutgers           8-1    Loses to Louisville.
23    Texas Tech    7-3    Chance could win out and jump Michigan.
24    Ok. St.              6-3    Chance could win out and jump Michigan.
25    Washington    6-4    No one else matters.

 

Assuming that the Rose Bowl picks ND to replace Oregon. the Fiesta gets the next two picks.  The will obviously take an SEC at large.  No chance they take the Big East champ.  That leaves another at large.  There are rules in the BCS to prevent the Sugar Bowl from having to take Michigan to prevent a rematch, so the Fiesta takes Michigan and Sugar takes another choice, leaving FSU vs Big East in the Orange Bowl.

Comments

ILMichFan70

November 15th, 2012 at 2:46 PM ^

Don't we have to finish somewhere in the top 14 or something like that in the BCS standings to make a BCS game? I thought that was one of the big deals last year but I could be wrong. Given our current ranking I don't see how we could move up that far. Is there something else that would allow us to make it?

Trebor

November 15th, 2012 at 3:06 PM ^

As far as I know, the computers still factor in OSU, PSU, NC, etc., but they're removed when they list their top 25. So, for example, if OSU is #4 in a computer, everyone behind them gets bumped up a spot when it's entered into the BCS ranking.

Plus it'd be a bonus with the human voters, which is even more important.

eamus_caeruli (not verified)

November 15th, 2012 at 4:19 PM ^

I believe top 16, but your point is well taken.  A lot to happen in the next three weekends.  On a side note, I can moderate again!  Hurrah me! And I gave you some informative action OP!! 

Ziff72

November 15th, 2012 at 3:00 PM ^

That's why all those teams in the top 10 won't go. He is saying only 1 of those 5 teams will go.

It's interesting but you have 3 holes.

1. Nebraska is not MSU.   Nebraska beat us so they should go ahead of us.   Unlike last year Nebraska travels like a mother fucker so we don't get the bump up ahead of them like we did MSU who can't make to their own stadium and no bowls care about.

2. Oklahoma- they will be favored in all their games.

3. Clemson- They will only have 2 losses if they lose to SC and would probably still be ahead of us.

 

I think you need Wiscy to lose to OSU this weekend and then lose to Nebraska in the title game so you can get Nebraska to Pasadena. 

 

Dawggoblue

November 15th, 2012 at 3:08 PM ^

I have Nebraska in the Rose Bowl.

Seeing Oklahoma lose one of those games doesn't seem too far fetched.

The Clemson part I can see, but since its their last game, if they get blown out, they wont have a chance to bounce back.

 

ghost

November 15th, 2012 at 3:14 PM ^

Its Rose or no BCS bowl for Nebreska.  If they lose they almost certainly will fall ouf of the top 14.  Even in the unlikely event that they didn't,  bowls don't like to select teams who lose their conference championship game if another viable option is available.

funkywolve

November 15th, 2012 at 4:19 PM ^

Also, having the Big Ten Champ in the Top 14 takes away one more possible at large berth.  If you have 5 of the 6 auto bids in the Top 14, there's only 9 possible at larges and the SEC is going to have a good chunk of those 9 teams but can only send 2.

ILMichFan70

November 15th, 2012 at 3:03 PM ^

We just pretty much need quite a few things to occur to make it happen as stated. I just think there are too many things that need to occur and go our way. We can only hope it works out that way. Would love back to back BCS bids.

phork

November 15th, 2012 at 3:00 PM ^

Nice figurin'.  I don't think Clemson falls out of the Top14 with a loss to a top10 though.  Unless its an absolute blowout.  Would love to see someone calculate the odds on this happening.

In the end I don't see Oklahoma losing, nor you beating tOSU.