Why are we favored vs Illinois?

Submitted by Dan Man on November 3rd, 2010 at 10:53 PM

We are 3 point favorites this weekend, apparently even after J.T. Floyd's injury, which surprised me.  Illinois, after stomping Indiana and Purdue the last two weeks, appears to be a much better team than we are.  They also destroyed Penn State earlier in the year.  Obviously our defense is in shambles and may be even more so after losing Floyd.  We haven't been able to stop anyone, including an FCS team and a walk on QB.  Yes, our offense has been moving the ball incredibly well, but it has also been prone to turnovers and inconsistency.

Anyway, I don't intend to convey pessimism; quite the contrary - I'm wondering whether this spread indicates some reason for optimism.  What does the gambling public know that I'm missing?  What have people seen that make them say, "I'm putting my hard-earned cash on Michigan"?  Just curious what people think...

Comments

jamiemac

November 4th, 2010 at 8:49 AM ^

Who cares why, just do it. Just bet the Illini already. A team with a D like this should never be favored in a conference game. You'll be glad you did either way.

Given the line hasnt budged, especially after the Floyd injury, I'm actually going against the grain with those who say the line is where it is because of delusional MICH fans plunking money down.

I dont think this line has seen any action at all. They threw the -3  out there, nothing is happening, so they're keep it there. We're almost within the 48-hour window of kickoff, it'll be interesting to see if there are any line movements now that football weekend is upon us.

But, yeah, stop waiting. Get down on the underdog. You cant lose as you file out of the stadium.

Loukdogg

November 4th, 2010 at 9:00 AM ^

After the horrors of our defense...especially Penn St....I still believe in Rich Rod in a close game.  Ron Zook is a game day moron.

As we all saw in the second half against Penn St, Rodriguez is at least going to work with the D on confidence and motivation.  If we get some momentum against Illinois I think that the Zooksters will find a way to give Michigan the win.  As much as I believe Rodriguez is the guy, we need this win to still make this a respectable year (assuming a Purdue win). 

Motown20

November 4th, 2010 at 9:05 AM ^

Home team by 3 is basically even money.

I think Michigan comes out this week ready to play.  I think we will be back in a groove on offense, more of a flow.  We'll see Denard "ease" back into the position.  I think he's been pressing, trying to make the huge play instead of taking what the defense gives him.  I would love to see us have some 9-12 play drives, which gets our offense back in a groove and keeps the defense from being on the field too much.

We need Martin back and Roh on the line.  If we can get some pressure on the QB (he's young) we will finally get some turnovers.  With pressure, someone in our young secondary makes a much needed play and confidence enters the stadium.

I see us playing one of our best "overall" games.  I'm confident we win this game.

Blue Blue Blue

November 4th, 2010 at 11:10 AM ^

silly people. the line is not about football talent.  the line is there to attract money. 

 

bookies need money on both sides to protect themselves.    we also have one of the largest and most rabid fan bases.   If the line is Michigan as big underdog, they would attract a lot of "oh well, we got the points" money from Michigan fans.  But how much Illinois money comes in when they have to give lots of points?  not much.

Michigan money prob shows up regardless.  Making us a favorite makes us cocky, brings out our money, and the points encourage Illini tightwads to pony up.

jlvanals

November 4th, 2010 at 12:21 PM ^

100% serious, this is the same way I felt when seeing ND only -7 against LSU in the sugar bowl 2007.  I was in Vegas, sitting with my brother, trying to figure out how they didn't have ND losing by at least 14 and didn't bet LSU.  This has haunted me ever since.  Any good online sites???

OysterMonkey

November 4th, 2010 at 3:21 PM ^

that Illinois is going to destroy Michigan. They may win, but I think the game will be close.

Their offense has been fairly anemic in a lot of games this year. Their IU game was lopsided b/c of four IU turnovers (including two TAINTs). They only had 289 yards of offense in that game. They destroyed Purdue, but PU only managed 9 first downs so ILL was on the field a lot. They managed 6 points and 255 yards against MSU. Less than 300 total yards against the Missouri team that gave up 328 on the ground to Nebraska.

I know our defense has made every offense look like the '07 Patriots, but the ILL offense is still a work in progress with a freshman QB playing in his fourth road game (1-2 so far on the road).

On D, they've been good, but they haven't done a great job of containing QBs who run. They've only played 3 teams that use QB runs as a big part of the offense. The kid from NIU had 117 yards on 11 carries, Pryor went for 104 on 11. They contained the PU Qbs, but that was with no threat of the pass with PU down to their 64th string quarterback.