Why Are People Defending Hoke?

At least not yet.

I find it amusing how many people here react emotionally to various ugly losses and then claim objectivity in their desire to immediately fire Hoke. Or fire him before the OSU game just in case he might win. Or fire him before season's end so that they can sigh in relief and get emotionally worked up anticipating the next shiny new head coach who will fix everything and save the program.

My position on Hoke's retention remains unchanged from what it was in 2013. The team's overall performance throughout this season, Hoke's performance as head coach, and the perfomance of his staff under his guidance and leadership, should be evaluated at the end of this season and at that point, and not before, a retention decision should be made.

Hoke's contract runs to the end of the 2016 season including any bowl games so no extention need be announced this year.

I hate it when Michigan loses a football game. Any game, but rivalry games most of all. I get angry, frustrated, despondent, fatalistic, concerned for the future of the program and the institution of Michigan football. In that regard I am just like most of you. 

I'm older that most people here and, I suspect, have a lot more real world experience restructuring, rebuilding, or dismantling failed or failing programs. One of the hard lessons that I have learned is that it is critically important to establish the metrics for success or abandonment at the beginning of the effort. Once people are "in the struggle" emotions can get in the way of objectivity. Yes sometimes circumstances change in ways that require those metrics be adjusted, but otherwise people, especially the decision makers on the future of the program, are well served to stick to their original criteria. 

It is also critical that everyone involved have a good understanding of the magnitude of the task and the potential challenges that may be encountered, so that they are prepared when things get difficult. 

When Hoke was hired, there was a lot of discussion here and elsewhere about how long it might take to turn things around. Many knowledgeable people commented about the various challenges facing the staff and the program. There were many cautions about unreasonable expectations. One of the memes here is that "no one expected this in Hoke's 4th year". A careful reading of predictions at the end of the 2011 and 2012 seasons would show that at least some people were cautioning about the possibility of this situation. 

The goal set before Hoke was not just to win games or have winning seasons. The goal was and remains rebuilding Michigan into a program that consistently fields a dominant team and regularly contends for the Big Ten championship and less regularly contends for the national championship. Given the hole that Michigan created that was a daunting and long term challenge. 

My criteria for Hoke then was that he gets a team into, and ideally win, the Big Ten Championship game by the 2015 season. It was, and remains, my assumption that to do this he'd have to beat both OSU and MSU in that season and probably win at least 10 regular season games. Another critera was that he, his staff, and their teams, hold themselves to the standards of conduct and academics that are expected at Michigan. Another criteria was that the coaching staff, and Hoke himself, get and retain the confidence and commiment of their players. 

Note what is not required here is a lock step year to year improvement in the won/loss record.

If at the end of the season, a thoughtful assessment determines that Hoke has no reasonable chance of achieving that goal in 2015, or that he has lost the team, or otherwise failed to meet those other criteria, then he should be released. 

If it is the assessment of the AD that a sufficiently better head coaching candidate is available who is worth risking a coaching churn and should be hired, then Hoke should be released. 

Otherwise he should be retained.

While I find this positon emotionally difficult to stick with, life has taught me that abandoning a preiviously established objective measure for current emotional comfort is perilous at best. So I'm going to tough this season out to the end and see what happens. 

As I've said elsewhere. The players haven't given up. The coaches haven't given up. This season is a hell of a lot harder on them than on us. Why should we give up before they do?