Things have come into focus since the last CFP ratings were released. It's looking like the Rose or the Peach are the most likely results, despite what the ESPN Bowl Projections say (Fiesta). UCF is essentially blocking Michigan from the Fiesta Bowl right now. So...let's assume the favorites win. Here's how it works this year.
Step 1: The CFP takes the top 4 teams, and will arrange them something like this--Alabama v Oklahoma in the Orange, Clemson v Notre Dame in the Cotton.
Step 2: The Rose and Sugar get their picks, and must use their conference tie-ins. So Ohio State v Washington in the Rose and either Texas or West Virginia (ugh, who do you pick?) v the highest-ranked SEC team in the Sugar. I have Texas v Georgia.
Step 3: The Peach and Fiesta get the top G5 team plus the next 3 highest ranked teams. To me, that's going to be UCF, Michigan, Florida and LSU. Now ordinarily you would say that UCF-Florida in the Peach would be obvious. I disagree--UCF went to the Peach last year, and there is an agreement to keep the G5 team rotating as much as possible so they're not going to the same bowl over and over. So UCF to the Fiesta. Since the 2 SEC teams have to go to 2 different bowls, that puts Michigan in the Peach. Something like this--Michigan v Florida in the Peach and UCF v LSU in the Fiesta.
Do you want Michigan in the Rose against the Washington/Utah winner? Cheer for Texas over Oklahoma. That puts OSU in the top 4 and obligates the Rose to pick the next best Big Ten team.
Do you want Michigan in the Fiesta against Oklahoma? Cheer for Texas and Northwestern; that might get UCF into the top 4.
Do you want Michigan in the Fiesta against Central Florida? Cheer for Georgia; that pushes Georgia into the playoff, Florida to the Sugar and Penn State to the Peach.