Where will UM be in the BCS standings?

Submitted by FreddieMercuryHayes on December 4th, 2011 at 12:10 AM

Now that the games are over, we can fully discuss UM's BCS chances.

Some things went according to plan: LSU and OSU blowouts.

Somethings did not go according to plan: MSU close loss, Baylor blowout.

So where does UM project in the latest BCS standings now?  Who knows a lot about this stuff?

Comments

Swazi

December 4th, 2011 at 12:53 AM ^

Think VT will fall out of the top 15?  I mean I guess I can see it with how far Clemsonfell when they were no. 8.  And I think Boise gets jumped by a couple teams that were in the top 10 behind them that won their CGs.  Other than that, I think this is solid.  Idk about as high as 12 though.

KinesiologyNerd

December 4th, 2011 at 12:59 AM ^

At the beginning of the season if someone said Gator or Outback bowl I'd be elated. Sooooo Capital One or BCS is gravy...

...With that said, please please please top 14! Daddy wants to go to Nola!

triangle_M

December 4th, 2011 at 1:02 AM ^

I'm not a big fan of Lou Holtz, but he just said what many on this board are thinking.  If there wasn't a rematch of 1OSU vs 2UM in 2006, then there shouldn't be a rematch of Bama/LSU.  It was one of the first times I've seen Mark May have nothing to say, although I could see his SEC homer wheels turning.  

 

greymarch

December 4th, 2011 at 1:02 AM ^

Rece Davis, on college football final, just said he would be stunned beyond belief if WVU didnt play Clemson in the Orange Bowl.  Jerry Palm is predicting WVU versus Michigan in the Sugar Bowl.  Hmmmmmm.

El Fuego

December 4th, 2011 at 1:08 AM ^

People for some reason think Texas is still good. They aren't.  They just get the benefit of the doubt because they are Texas.  So apparently a win by Baylor looks good, but it shouldn't.  Imma be pissed if Baylor jumps us...

Meteorite00

December 4th, 2011 at 1:12 AM ^

If I remember right, one or two of the computer polls count only one win when a team beats the same team twice in a season. (Lazy algorithms.) This may lessen how far Virginia Tech falls. I strongly suspect they'll remain above Michigan.

Oklahoma will also remain ahead of Michigan in all or almost all computer rankings.

I think both Michigan's chance at 14 and Ok State's chance at Nat Champ game will be close.
Ok State will be #2 in most, but probably not all computer polls. They'll need to eclipse Stanford in nearly every voter's mind and take about half of Alabama's #2 votes.

Look Up_See Blue

December 4th, 2011 at 1:17 AM ^

I see us at #11 or #12.  Lou Holtz and Mark May just said on College Football Final that Michigan benefitted most from todays games and that they should be in good position for BCS.  I'm excited for the players and especially the seniors that worked so hard and will be rewarded with a major bowl.  Go Blue!!! I don't care who we play either, and I know those players aren't afraid of anyone.  Good thing they're going to be playing because it's unfortunate how many people on here are scared to play in a BCS game.  

_DG7_goblue

December 4th, 2011 at 1:18 AM ^

Won't pass m, neither will TCU. Msu is a tough call for argument sakes say they stay ahead because the way they lost. Georgia falls behind us, OU falls behind us, and va tech stays ahead. Baylor jumps us, we're the. At that point were 15. If msu or Baylor fall behind/stay behind we're ok; I initially thought were 12-14 now it may get interesting. If I were a betting man though I'd say msu asn Baylor stays behind we go to 13

Run Denard Run

December 4th, 2011 at 1:22 AM ^

We should make it into the top 14 and end up in the Sugar Bowl. College football needs Michigan in one of their prime time events. O$U sucks and MSU (Little Brother) is an irrelevant program. GO BLUE!!!

MGoVictory

December 4th, 2011 at 1:32 AM ^

FWIW, BCS Guru projects Michigan will get into the top 14.

BCS Guru

 
Michigan gets into the top 14, thanks in part to the blowout loss by OU - not from computers, but voters.
 
Also, that Oklahoma State will move into #2.
 
BCS Guru

 
The margin will be very slim, but enough voters will flip in both polls to put OSU over the top. The VT loss helped big-time.
 
BCS Guru

 
Coaches will have Bama at No. 2 as will Harris voters. BUT ... I'm projecting OSU to be at No. 2 in the BCS standings.

kmd

December 4th, 2011 at 1:38 AM ^

People keep worrying about Michigan State being ahead of Michigan, but looking at the season in its entirety (ie, ignoring previous rankings), does Michigan State even deserve to be ahead of Nebraska? Both are 2-2 against ranked opponents, with one loss to an unranked opponent, and Nebraska wins head to head. 

Also, if you look at the history of the BCS, it's very rare that a 3 loss team gets ranked ahead of a 2 loss team from an AQ conference. The last exception was in 2006, when Virginia Tech and Rutgers were just behind Arkansas (whose 3 losses were to top 5 opponents). In 2005, Louisville has 2 losses and a few 3 loss teams were ahead of them. And in 2004, there were a few 3 loss teams ahead of 2 loss Wisconsin, but Wisconsin started out 9-0 before losing their last 2 games badly.

There's only been two other teams with 2 losses from AQ conferences (in addition to the aforementioned ones) that didn't finish in the top 14 of the BCS rankings, just because there were 14 better teams with 2 or fewer losses ahead of them.

Looking at the current year, there's going to be 10-12 teams with 2 or fewer losses ahead of us (depends on how far Houston falls, and if TCU jumps us). Even though we admittedly have the weakest resume of  the 2 loss teams, we're not a flailing 2004 Wisconsin, and we're not in a crappy AQ conference like Louisville. I think the big question will be how the voters feel about being 2-2 against top teams with 3 losses, versus 1-1 against top teams with 2 losses. That will determine whether Michigan State/Georgia/Oklahoma drop below us. But given my initial comment about the similarity between Michigan State and Nebraska, one would have to think the odds are in our favor.