What if the computers were in charge of the bracket?

Submitted by Yeoman on March 17th, 2013 at 11:19 AM

I dumped Massey Power into a bracket generator, added the autobids, tweaked it the minimum amount necessary to split teams in the same conference, and here's what came out:

Massey Power Bracket

There are probably some surprises here to anyone that hasn't been following any of the computer rankings: Iowa and Baylor in, Stanford in over Cal, Miami barely a 4 seed.

Michigan's a 4-seed, in a pod with Davidson, Marquette and the winner of a Colorado/Oklahoma play-in game.

The projected last 16:

  • Louisville/Miami
  • Duke/Syracuse
  • Indiana/St. Louis
  • Kansas/Michigan St.
  • Gonzaga/Wisconsin
  • Ohio St./Pittsburgh
  • Florida/Michigan
  • Georgetown/New Mexico

That top region is something else, if you think the ACC is a good conference this year. The computers don't--Sagarin has the ACC a distant fourth, barely better than the MWC.

Of course things might change a bit this afternoon, but (1) none of the computer sites will update their rankings until tomorrow and (2) my sense has been that the committee tends to ignore the late Sunday games because it's too late in the day to mess around with the bracket unless you're exchanging teams from the same conference. Sometimes they assign the two spots to the two teams and let the championship game decide which one goes where, but I'm pretty sure OSU > Wisconsin and Miami>NC and Florida>Mississippi regardless of what happens today.

 

Comments

lilpenny1316

March 17th, 2013 at 11:35 AM ^

One thing that people complain about is the "eyeball test".  I think the computers are getting better at confirming what the eyeballs see.  Numbers were showing that our D was not NCAA title contender ready and despite our dissention in mid-January, the numbers were backed up by our performance in the meat of our B1G schedule.

I'm getting more concerned about where we play next weekend.  I thought that a top 4 seed would guarantee playing in Dayton at worst.  Salt Lake City?  WTF.

 

Tater

March 17th, 2013 at 1:29 PM ^

The Wolverines were one correct intentional foul call, a couple of missed free throws, and one ball teetering on the rim away from tying for the regular season championship of the toughest conference in the country.  I don't think that "backs up" any assertion that the Wolverines aren't title contenders.

lilpenny1316

March 17th, 2013 at 1:41 PM ^

Didn't say anything about the rest of the team, though our rebounding is horrible and that's what cost us the game you reference.  Our inability to be strong on the glass is why IU was even within striking distance at the end.

Also didn't say we weren't title contenders.  But what separates the other teams that can win it all from us is their ability to defend.  Maybe that miraculously gets fixed between now and Thursday.  If not, you better hope we get matched up against teams that are small and can't shoot.

bronxblue

March 17th, 2013 at 12:31 PM ^

Good stuff.  I always thought Miami was a bit of a paper tiger, so this confirms it a bit.  UM should be a 4 seed, at best a 3 if they had beaten Wiscy, and so this all makes sense.  The defense just isn't there, and while I think a change of venue and refs might help a bit, it is still a team too reliant on Burke offensively and creaky group defense to have a long-ish run.  That said, get out of the first weekend and this season will feel like a success.

Uncle Joey

March 17th, 2013 at 12:43 PM ^

Of the world and instead of college kids playing basketball, the tournament was made up of 64 computers, and in this new computerized world they kept a few humans only to rationalize the bubble teams who were statistically even?