What does it take now to win the B10?

Submitted by SF Wolverine on February 12th, 2014 at 12:19 AM

We're 10-2, with six games left.  Not an easy stretch, but no more monster road games.  We've got one in the win column against Sparty, and are two clear of Iowa.  My guess is that 15-3 wins it outright, and if we beat Sparty, 14-4 should get us at least a share.  Sparty and Iowa still have to play, but I do not see Sparty losing in the finale against Ohio.

Comments

enlightenedbum

February 12th, 2014 at 12:23 AM ^

Sparty should get to 12-2 pretty easily, but their last four are tough.  We've got two pretty bad teams on the road left, a really good team at home, a pretty good team at home, and two inconsistent teams at home.  Think it's all about that Sparty game, frankly.

Lucky Socks

February 12th, 2014 at 12:31 AM ^

I don't see Michigan State losing again, unless it's against us.  @OSU and vs. Iowa are possibilities.  But they're the favorite in both games.  OSU can't score, and Iowa hasn't shown they can win close games -- especially not away.

I think we need to be 16-2 or 15-3 (& sweep of MSU) to win outright.  If we lose, MSU might drop a game to set up a tie but I wouldn't count on it.  They are very very good, and their schedule sets up nicely.  So in my estimation, I think it's outright or bust.  

Lucky Socks

February 12th, 2014 at 6:53 AM ^

Can't ignore that they have been injured. And they don't play at Wisconsin again. I just don't see any losable games except Michigan, Iowa, and @OSU. I think they're better than Iowa at home, and better than OSU on the road. I know its tough to sustain streaks and they could have a letdown. Just calling each game as I see the outcome individually.

We'll see. I'll stand by my outlook. Hope they lose, but I will give them due respect for now.

Muttley

February 12th, 2014 at 12:33 AM ^

All of a sudden, MSU has a more difficult remaining schedule than us.  Win versus MSU and we're in the driver's seat.

2013-14 Big Ten STANDINGS

TEAM CONF GB OVR
#15 Michigan 10-2 -- 18-6
#9 Michigan State 9-2 .5 20-4
#16 Iowa 7-4 2.5 18-6
#21 Wisconsin 6-5 3.5 19-5
#22 Ohio State 6-6 4 19-6
Minnesota 5-6 4.5 16-8
Northwestern 5-6 4.5 12-12
Indiana 4-6 5 14-9
Nebraska 4-6 5 12-10
Purdue 4-7 5.5 14-10
Illinois 3-8 6.5 14-10
Penn State 3-8 6.5 12-12

 

MICH (home against Wiscy and MSU)

Feb 16 1:00 PM ET
Feb 23 12:00 PM ET
Feb 26 7:00 PM ET
Mar 1 6:00 PM ET
Mar 4 7:00 PM ET
Mar 8 6:00 PM ET

 

MSU (@Mich, home vs Iowa, @OSU)

Feb 13 7:00 PM ET
Feb 16 3:00 PM ET
Feb 20 7:00 PM ET
Feb 23 12:00 PM ET
Mar 1 2:00 PM ET
Mar 6 9:00 PM ET
Mar 9 TBD

 

Iowa (@Ind--no gimme, home vs Wiscy, @MSU)

eb 15 1:00 PM ET
Feb 18 9:00 PM ET
Feb 22 12:00 PM ET
Feb 25 7:00 PM ET
Mar 1 8:15 PM ET
Mar 6 9:00 PM ET
Mar 8 8:30 PM ET

 

Lucky Socks

February 12th, 2014 at 12:47 AM ^

Looking at the standings, it's pretty easy to see who's "in," but what about the bubble teams?

Minnesota should be on the right side of the bubble at a current 16-8 with quality wins over Wisco, OSU, and Florida State.  #10 seed?

Indiana and Nebraska are on the bubble.  Both probably the wrong side for now.  IU has quality wins over Wisconsin and Michigan, with opportunities coming against OSU, Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan.  They have a lot of talent, and talent gets better as the season goes on.  I'd bet they take one or two of the games I described.  Ultimately I think they sneak in, but hopefully it isn't a season sweep of Michigan that does it.

Nebraska is only 12-10, but they have a QW over OSU.  Their schedule softens up.  I think they're favorites in 5/8 remaining games.  Let's assume they win those.  Must win @IU, and steal one @MSU or vs. Wisconsin.  I think they can do just that, and finish the season with a home win at Wisconsin to get to 19-11.  I'm rooting for the Huskers.  

Northwestern has a fighters chance, but fails the eye fest miserably.  They'll probably finish where they always are.  Watching the selection show with no REAL chance.  

 

 

Picktown GoBlue

February 12th, 2014 at 12:47 AM ^

about Matta getting 20 wins every year, it's interesting to note that there are still 10 B1G teams that could mathematically reach 20 wins (although it is quite a stretch for many of them).  One of NU and PSU can max out at 19 wins, and the other can reach only 18, but don't see that happening for either of them.

I'm thinking a 14-4 will win the conference, but would love to see us 15-2 heading into the Indiana game.

joeyb

February 12th, 2014 at 12:34 AM ^

We need at least 4.5 wins where the MSU game counts as 1.5 because of the tiebreaker. If we beat MSU, we can go 3-2 in the other 5 because we have the tiebreaker. If we lose, they will probably have the tiebreaker (from beating Iowa twice) in which case we will need to win the other 5 and hope they lose one or two games.

StoneRoses

February 12th, 2014 at 12:35 AM ^

Hate to say it, but we basically need to win out. Then, there will be no if's, and's, or but's about it. We will be champions of the west... er... Big Ten.

Seriously though, every game from here on out is basically a must win game. We really don't know at this time how many losses if any MSU will have to end the year, and if we take care of our business, it we won't need any of their help.

michfan4borw

February 12th, 2014 at 12:55 AM ^

Michigan can prepare for 4 days for Wisconsin while watching Wisconsin play Minn. on Thursday.

Michigan can prepare for MSU for 6 days while watching MSU play on Thursday, Sunday and Thursday.

 

Michigan not only survived a brutal schedule that doesn' t much easier at all, but it thrived.  Lots of reasons to be confident as a team.  I hope what THJ said recently rings true.  GO BLUE.

Huma

February 12th, 2014 at 8:07 AM ^

I agree with the general thought, but if we drop 2 games then presumably 1 is to State. With State's remaining schedule I'm not sure I see 2 losses for them if they beat us.

So, I would say beat State and we win at least a share of the title.

On a side note, anyone know if the title is shared where M and State have the same conf record but we beat them twice? Or would that be an outright title for M?

LSAClassOf2000

February 12th, 2014 at 6:45 AM ^

As someone mentioned above, one thing that we definitely have going in our favor is that there are no more really big away games like last night left. Indeed, the last six games are estimated as follows by Massey:

Wisconsin - 65%

Michigan State - 56%

At Purdue - 79%

Minnesota - 81%

At Illinois - 75%

Indiana - 85%

By the numbers, the outlook would seem hopeful, but keep in mind that MSU's remaining "questionable" games by the same algorithm are their game against us, Ohio State (toss-up at 50%) and Iowa (MSU is a slight favorite, but it's one they could lose). They won't lose all of those, but if we beat them, then 3-2 for the remainder of our schedule probably gives us a shot at a conference title. The bar is high for this feat even at this point in the season. 

michelin

February 12th, 2014 at 9:35 AM ^

based on the Massey probabilities if we need 14-4 record with a win vs MSU  OR

a 15-3 record with a loss vs MSU

 

(ie chance of beating MSU and winning at least 4 more =.38

chance of losing to MSU and winning at least 5 others =.12

So Chance of a wining B1G assuming 14-4 wins a share of title with MSU win and 15-3 with an MSU loss =.50)

Perkis-Size Me

February 12th, 2014 at 7:43 AM ^

That win last night got us a little more wiggle room to work with. If we can manage to take down both MSU and Wiscy at home, I'd say the title is ours to lose. Thankfully no more gauntlet road games, although there are no guarantees on our schedule at all. There's a good chance we could still drop one that we shouldn't.

Such is the nature of Big Ten basketball.

Mar

February 12th, 2014 at 9:38 AM ^

MSU is not going to lose again this year unless we beat them in AA. OSU will not beat MSU in the season finale. MSU is way too good. They'll be full strength at that point too (barring any other injuries). We have to beat MSU. Period.

Avon Barksdale

February 12th, 2014 at 10:40 AM ^

To win the B1G, you simply need to run for more than 27 yards on 27 carries, beat your rivals, and win in Indianapolis, Indiana on the first weekend in December.

My bad, I'm just dreaming of football Big Ten Championships.