What do you predict for balance of basketball season

Submitted by StephenRKass on December 18th, 2017 at 2:34 PM

I'm curious what you think the outlook is for the balance of the basketball season. So far, the team is 9 - 3. Our next two games shouldn't have been scheduled:  they are terrible in ranking, and will bring down Michigan's RPI. Still, Michigan should finish the calendar year at 11 - 3.

Looking ahead, the Big 10 schedule begins in January. I think Michigan will struggle to beat either MSU or Purdue. If true, that would be 3 losses, plus the December loss to OSU. Do you see any other losses in the Big 10? The only other loss I really see is perhaps against Maryland on the road. That would give UM a record of 13 - 5 in the Big 10. This would mean 23 - 7 overall, and third place in the Big 10.

I suppose Michigan could manage to lose other games. Anything is possible. And I suppose that as bad as Duncan has been with the 3 point shot, reverting to the mean could happen, and he could have several lights out nights in the Big 10. Anyway, the year could end fairly well, and Michigan could end up with a bit better seed in the NCAA tournament. (Currently, Lunardi has them as an 8 - 9 seed, which is almost completely meaningless.)

Comments

Ellerbe is Yoda

December 18th, 2017 at 2:41 PM ^

Probable losses:

@MSU, @Purdue

 

Likely to be competitive games:

@Iowa, Purdue, Maryland, @Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota, @Northwestern, @Wisconsin, @Penn State, @Maryland

 

Probable wins:

Illinois, Rutgers, Iowa, OSU

That's 5-3 in Big Ten play with 10 competitive games. The baseline is probably about 10-8 or 11-7 at this point. Kenpom is projecting 10-8 for what it's worth.

StephenRKass

December 18th, 2017 at 2:48 PM ^

Most years I'd agree with you. However, it seems that Iowa and Wisconsin are really bad. I am almost to the place of moving those road games to the win column. And I think we could move Minnesota and Northwestern (@ Michigan) to the win column. That would leave 6 competitive games. With a split, we'd end up at 12 - 6 (instead of 13 - 5.) I think 10 - 8 is too low, and that we end up 11 - 7 at worst, 13 - 5 best.

FauxMo

December 18th, 2017 at 2:41 PM ^

13-5 in conference is too ambitious, as we all know from the past decade that Beiein's teams tend to put up a few stinkers and lose a few they shouldn't. I'd guess 11-7 and 21-9, so sweating a bit for a tourney spot in a down year for the B1G, but getting in at the end with a few wins in the BTT...

Stringer Bell

December 18th, 2017 at 2:42 PM ^

There are a bunch of Big Ten teams in the middle of the pack that could beat any team and lose to any team.  Michigan is one of them.  The OSU game is a perfect representation of this team, one second they look like world beaters the next they look like a CBI team.  I think predicting this team to win every game they should to get to 13-5 in the Big Ten is foolish because they're too inconsistent, on the other hand I also wouldn't bank on them losing all of their games against MSU and Purdue.

StephenRKass

December 18th, 2017 at 3:37 PM ^

So, how would you rank the teams in the middle? Which teams would you put there? Obviously Michigan, Ohio State, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State, Northwestern. How would you rank those six teams? And do you think Michigan could lose to any of them, any time? I am trying to figure out if OSU was a fluke loss that won't be repeated, or a harbinger of a maddening season.

TrueBlue2003

December 18th, 2017 at 5:07 PM ^

a coin flip game @OSU.  They were actually favored by a point on kenpom.

It was super frustrating that we blew a 19-point lead, but losing wasn't a fluke.   And we'll lose more road games to the middle pack B1G teams because road games are hard.  So yeah, it'll be maddening when it happens but we're not going to go 6-3 on the road in conference this year.

mGrowOld

December 18th, 2017 at 2:43 PM ^

1. We will win at least one of the games we're expected to lose (and the board will go batshit crazy happy with at least one "Beilein appreciation thread" created)

2. We will lose at least two of the games we're expected to win (and the board will go batshit crazy unhappy with at least one "Fire Beilein" post created)

3. We will make the the tourny in March

4. We will win a couple of games  (at least) and will surprise the national media with how well coached Michigan is

5. We will do it all again next year.

Rinse, repeat.

ijohnb

December 18th, 2017 at 3:38 PM ^

you haven't noticed, the mods are not paying attention, to any of this, and nobody seems to have any interest in a possible serious malware situation on the website.  The front page still has content-ish type material but the Board is most certainly an enter at your own risk place right now. 

And the difference is that Faux Mo can be vulgar, but he contributes actual takes and discussion.  He isn't a troll.  Right now, you guys are only on here to start stuff and are just sabotoging threads.

TrueBlue2003

December 18th, 2017 at 4:33 PM ^

likely to happen (i.e. even if you have a 30% chance to win each game you're "expected" to lose, you are likely to win at least one of them if there are just two such games, and vice versa about the games you're supposed to win..

..we've only won a couple (2) or more games three times in Beilein's ten years.  It hasn't been repeated that many times.

I like this team and I think we have a lot of young pieces but a sweet 16 would be...unexpected for sure.

Jimmyisgod

December 18th, 2017 at 2:45 PM ^

Sure, this team has its weaknesses, but it's got a little more skill and size than most of the previous Beilein teams.  I really like how our defense is coming along too.

23-7 or 22-8 before the BTT seems about right.

I think we can upset one of the front runners, but we'll also probably get upset a time or two.

MSU is a really bad matchup for us this year, but I don't think they are developing as much as Izzo would like.  Not going to beat them at Breslin, but you never know.

Big Ten is terrible this year, so we should finish 3rd or 4th.  2nd is possible too.

StephenRKass

December 18th, 2017 at 2:53 PM ^

I agree with you . . . but then, I'm a glass half full kind of guy.

Seriously, I'm thinking that Duncan Robinson will round back into form. Teske is great behind Wagner, better in certain ways. Simpson and Poole are going a good job as well. Matthews is only going to get better, and Abdur-Rahkman will stay solid. With those seven, and maybe spot duty from a few others, the team will be just fine. Better than many anticipate.