What can a history of 5-star QB transfers tell us about Shea Patterson at Michigan? (SBNation)

Submitted by Caesar on May 31st, 2018 at 6:12 AM

Answer: it indicates that chances for success are good. Check this (link) for the full story. The article's specific takeaways:

  1. 5 star transfers usually perform well
  2. Offensive fit matters a great deal 
  3. Immediate improvement over the previous QB and general production is possible

It's a pretty small sample size, and a more granular review from Brian will be more helpful, but I think this article is reason for some cautious optimism from a non-OL perspective. 

Comments

MGoStrength

May 31st, 2018 at 7:30 AM ^

I'd be surprised if a 2-loss team gets in.  That means there aren't 4 0-loss or 1-loss teams in the Power 5.  I don't picture that happening unless both of our 2 losses came out of conference or came to teams other than ND, PSU, MSU, Wiscy, & OSU.  I don't think we can for arguments sake lose to OSU & Wiscy and still get in.

Caesar

May 31st, 2018 at 7:51 AM ^

But that means Michigan beats MSU, PSU, and OSU. Also, in a 'quality' tier below, Northwestern. It takes some help from (probably) a down PAC-12 and BIG-12, but those wins are likely good enough to give Michigan a very nice resume. 

MGoStrength

May 31st, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^

That would mean that our conference record would be 8-1 and our division record would be 6-0 and we would be in the B1G championship game.  So, are we also assuming we win the championship game?  If so, I think it's possible, but it would still assume there are no undefeated or 1-loss conference champions in the Power 5.  It could come down to a debate between a 2-loss conference champ in UM vs a 1-loss (but 2nd in the division) OSU.  Kinda sounds like 2016 PSU/OSU/UM.  It's possible, but seems unlikely. 

 

That would mean that we'd have to be undefeated in the division (beat MSU, PSU, & OSU).  One or both of the losses has to be out of conference (almost guranteed ND) and the other has to be out of division (Wiscy, NW, or Neb) or also out of conference.

MGoStrength

May 31st, 2018 at 8:59 PM ^

In that scenario it's possible that OSU's only loss would be to UM and although they'd have a better overall record, UM would have a better record (6-0 vs 5-1) in the division which would put UM in the conference championship game. 

 

That would be a difficult decision for the committee and would depend on a lot of other variables within the other Power 5.  Certainly you'd think any undefeated or 1-loss Power 5 champ would get in ahead of both OSU & UM.  But, if there were in theory only 3 undefeated or 1-loss Power 5 conference champs and the last slot came down to a 10-2 conference champ in UM and a 11-1 OSU who's only loss was to UM in a close game...boy that would be a difficult decision to make.  My hunch is UM would be the pick to get in because they would have more quality wins due to the difficulty of their schedule.  UM would have wins over PSU, Wiscy, MSU, and OSU.  OSU would have wins over TCU, PSU, & MSU. 

 

Although this does seem like a possible scenario it seems pretty unlikely.  I'd assume 2 losses probably won't be enough to get in the playoff for most scenarios.

Blue Indy

May 31st, 2018 at 9:14 AM ^

Not necessarily... 2 close losses, to ND (early) and Wisconsin (later redeemed in the B1G championship game), would put us in the running for the playoff, especially if ND, WI, PSU, MSU, and OSU are ranked

butuka21

May 31st, 2018 at 7:44 AM ^

So sick of the schedule excuse. This team is better than the 16 team or has the potential to be and actually has a option at qb for the first time in a decade. No excuses this year you have to beat who is on your schedule. We are better than every team we are playing this year on paper except for Ohio

swan flu

May 31st, 2018 at 9:07 AM ^

Easy. John OKorm isnt the qb this year.

Seriously, mau was a win with qb play anywhere abive 10th prrcentile, wisconsin was a toss up without the peters injury, penn state loses barkley and moorehead. I mean hell, ohio state is a probable win with average qb play.

No one is saying mihigan will go undefeated but 3 wins against nd, wisco, msu, penn state, and ohio state isnt unrealistic

Bodogblog

May 31st, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^

I wouldn't blame O'Korn for the MSU loss.  He wasn't great, but he was good enough to win. 

Blame the team that couldn't stop turning the ball over, 5 times in total.  Blame the RB and OL for not being able to block a walk-on DE when O'Korn made the best play of his life - the scramble-bomb TD that was called back for an obvious hold.  Even after the entire mess, you can blame McDoom for dropping a wide open sideline pattern (with a nice throw from O'Korn), which would have had the team at the 30-yard line.  All day, everyone either fumbled or dropped balls. 

OSU put completely on O'Korn being terrible. 

Squash34

May 31st, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^

PSU is a shell of who they were last year. MSU won by four despite a +5 turnover margin. Is it really hard to say Michigan has is a better team than both?
Wisconsin loses a bunch on defense but seems to reload their, but even with that, I still think Mich has better players.

bronxblue

May 31st, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^

I can very confidently say that Michigan is better than MSU.  It took a 5-0 turnover advantage, a freaking monsoon, and terrible QB play for MSU to just barely beat Michigan.  And MSU has lost some players this offseason as well.

PSU has to replace a lot of their offense (they are 116th in returning production) and solid chunks of their defense, to say nothing of changes in their coaching staff.

Wisconsin had exactly 1 game they needed to prepare for during the regular season last year (Michigan), got to play at home, and were only up 14-10 toward the end of the third quarter when Peters got hurt and the wheels sort of came off.  The teams were about equal in yards at that point, and while Michigan's offense hadn't been particularly great thus far, it certainly wasn't a given that Wisconsin was going to run away with it.  And Wisconsin was reasonably experienced last year (52 in returning production) compared to Michigan (127th), and that includes Wilton Speight.  

Michigan should have a talent advantage against everyone they face save OSU and maybe ND.  It may not be a huge gap in some of those cases, but there is solid talent everywhere.

Champeen

May 31st, 2018 at 9:13 AM ^

i agree.  If Harbaugh cannot get into the playoffs with this team, then he never will.  Fuck the schedule excuse.  Great teams beat anyone, and this is a great team.  With this defense, if we lose 3 games, its highly unacceptable.  Im honestly not going to be happy with 2 losses, depending on how those 2 losses come and and who they are to i guess.

gruden

May 31st, 2018 at 10:22 AM ^

It is NEVER pointless to bring in great talent.  In a game like football where injuries are a constant problem (like last year), having more good  options is always good.  When JT Barrett went down in the Game last year, Haskins came in and did as well/better.  That's an excellent situation to be in.

Even if Patterson doesn't perform as we anticipate, still was a good idea to help him transfer in.

 
 

UPMichigan

May 31st, 2018 at 12:26 PM ^

Did you watch the bowl game?

20/44 for 186 yards, no TDs, 2 Ints against the #69 passing defense in the country.

If I'm the coach I'm not counting on that performance or a redshirt freshman with zero experience to lead this team into 2018 and deliver a 10-2 record. There's too much on the line at this juncture.

Cold War

May 31st, 2018 at 6:52 AM ^

Harbaugh has done an excellent job, but the one thing that continues to puzzle me is his not yet being able to recruit / develop a top tier quarterback. Hopefully Shea is it.

Fezzik

May 31st, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^

He also said develop. You have to take Speight's regression into account here as well. Many on this blog expected he'd play himself into a top tier early round draft pick already. That and O'Korn never improving despite 3 years coaching from Harbaugh himself.

Rudock did improve here but he was much better at Iowa than everyone here suggests. His improvement here is to a lesser extent than most believe. The QB that beat out Rudock became a 3rd round NFL draft pick compared to Rudock going 6th round.

FatGuyTouchdown

June 1st, 2018 at 5:58 PM ^

thought he'd be an early round pick. I thought the injury concerns, the older age, the lack of athleticism would prevent that. That being said, I envisioned him being a solid 5th or 6th round pick and hanging around the league for awhile as a very good backup. I didn't see this coming.

Fezzik

June 2nd, 2018 at 2:35 PM ^

Not saying you, but I remember reading pre-season predictions on here how "Speight will have a tough decision to make" regarding going pro or not after 2017. I believe this was Brian's take as well.

I agree with you on your points of weakness. Also Rudock > Speight so I never envisoned Speight ever going higher than a 6-7 round pick at best.

Harlick

May 31st, 2018 at 9:44 AM ^

This is a rediculous comment, Ruddock was playing at a great level and due to his development went from the undrafted list preseason to getting drafted. Speight was getting heisman consideration by week 9 before he injured his shoulder. How come people forget this? Not every QB is going to develope into great players, if it were that easy Alabama, Florida State, and other blue bloods wouldn't churn through players ever year. Quarterback development is a numbers game like every other position, we will hit on one of the young guys. Also this talk about 10-2 being a disappointment is rediculous, 10-2 is a great record with this schedule. Those people being critical of Harbaugh need to remember where we were before he came here. There wasn't a single top tier or up and coming coach that was considering coming here, go back and look at the list of names we were considering. It's not a whose who of coaches.

HAIL-YEA

May 31st, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^

Speght was what... did you just say Speight was getting heisman consideration by week 9? Are you on crack, how can so many people in this fanbase be so delusional about Speight, he was always terrible. This is his week by week stats for 2016 ripped from espn

 
                   
9/3 Hawai'i W 63-3 10 13 145 76.9 31 3 1 231.4 0 0 0.0 0 0 98.6 97.8
9/10 UCF W 51-14 25 37 312 67.6 45 4 0 174.1 2 -12 -6.0 0 0 93.8 96.5
9/17 Colorado W 45-28 16 30 229 53.3 54 1 0 128.5 6 -14 -2.3 3 0 28.5 52.3
9/24 Penn State W 49-10 21 34 189 61.8 25 1 0 118.2 2 9 4.5 9 0 79.7 86.2
10/1 Wisconsin W 14-7 20 32 219 62.5 46 1 1 124.1 5 -30 -6.0 2 0 23.4 45.6
10/8 @Rutgers W 78-0 6 13 100 46.2 45 1 0 136.2 0 0 0.0 0 0 73.4 70.3
10/22 Illinois W 41-8 16 23 253 69.6 33 2 0 190.7 3 -7 -2.3 10 0 96.3 96.6
10/29 @Michigan State W 32-23 16 25 244 64.0 43 0 1 138.0 1 5 5.0 5 0 93.8 93.8
11/5 Maryland W 59-3 19 24 362 79.2 56 2 0 233.4 3 16 5.3 10 1 99.8 99.8
11/12 @Iowa L 14-13 11 26 103 42.3 29 0 1 67.9 4 -3 -0.8 4 0 10.5 20.4
11/19 Indiana W 20-10 No statistics available.
11/26 @Ohio State L 30-27 (2OT) 23 36 219 63.9 22 2 2 122.2 3 -17 -5.7 0 0 18.1 44.0
CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL
12/30 @Florida State L 33-32 21 38 163 55.3 21 1 1 94.7

Those are the numbers of  heisman cadidate? If you eliminate the cupcakes UCF and Maryland, then he is not better then what Peters was doing in his 4 games last year with much worse personnel around him.  Before the MSU game I remember his stats put him at #59 in the country for qbs, 2 spots worse than Tyly Oconner. Heisman candidate... unbelievable

GarMoe

May 31st, 2018 at 9:17 PM ^

Bringing in game stats is excellent work although the format stretched horizontal out to my neighbor’s place for some reason. What doomed your comment was the hysterical tone and exaggeration: “how can SO many people be delusional in this fan base....”. (All caps mine for emphasis)

One guy, one guy made a comment here about Speight that you’re responding to - not a string of like minded opinions. I’ve lurked here on and off thru the Speight years and did not see “SO” many commenters with the same opinion.

Suggestion would be just to bring out the stats without the drama. It doesn’t help support you position.