What are you realistic expectations for the season now?

Submitted by kurpit on

There were, as there always are, a lot of big claims and blustery predictions of championships at the start of every season. Nobody had this game penciled in as a loss, so I was wondering what the real expectations are now.

I'm not asking what you hope to happen; what do you expect at this point?

Mgoczar

September 4th, 2018 at 5:15 PM ^

I was able to look through some threads. 

Woof. 

I think a lot of it is overreaction. I agree that Oline needs to improve, but it is NOT the worst line in the country. I think we go 10-2/9-3

I also think ND may be a one loss team this year...which...we played a heck of a game, at night, at their stadium as a first game. 

What made me happy is the bomb to Nico Collins and short passes...think back to Florida, while Speight had that bomb to Tarik, he sucks in short passes. Shea can do both + move outta pocket

 

My predictions: 

- Shea will be VERY good. Probably best QB since Henne

- Oline will improve quite a bit (NOT like what most are saying that this is it...no improvement. I disagree)

- Teams trajectory will be more 2015 (improve week to week) than 2016 (solid then fall off)

- Wins vs MSU, PSU and close loss to OSU (sigh. again.)

mitchewr

September 4th, 2018 at 6:37 PM ^

The second half?

In the second half, the defense finally decided to get off the bus and play a few snaps. The offense meanwhile continued their woeful performance until their lone TD was scored in garbage time. So basically 2017 2.0

The o-line still couldn’t run block very well. The o-line still couldn’t pass protect at all. The WRs and TEs still didn’t go up and make catches (we had one lonely deep ball catch all night), and the RBs averaged 1.8 ypc. 

But on the bright side, our QB still turned the ball over twice but looked slightly better while doing it. So yeah, pretty solid outing overall when you step back and look at everything. 

 

You better be hoping and praying this team improves throughout the year. Otherwise we’re looking at at least another 4 losses. 

allintime23

September 4th, 2018 at 5:19 PM ^

I expect Norte Dame to be crushed alive in the college football playoff by Alabama. I watched Stanford, usc, vt and FSU. I don’t see ND losing more than 1 of those games. I expect Michigan to compete. I think we get going and take down some good teams. The schedule sets up perfect now until we reach the gauntlet of death. We’ll beat a ranked Northwestern on the road!!! Then probably fall to Wisconsin and TOSU. I think we’ll win the rest. 

PapabearBlue

September 4th, 2018 at 5:34 PM ^

Zero expectations for this season at this point. All comes down to whether or not the line gels and the defense fixes its discipline issues as the season progresses. This team CAN be good but if they don't improve then they won't win anything of significance.

Michifornia

September 4th, 2018 at 5:38 PM ^

8-4 is a reasonable prediction.  I'd agree if I didn't think this team can and will improve a lot.  The talent is there.  Assuming we capitalize on who we have, I think we can go 10-2.  However, if the o line doesn't improve at least a bit and the playcalling stays conservative, 8-4 is about right.

What can I say.  Reality and being a diehard for over 40 years confuse me. 

GO BLUE!!

Don

September 4th, 2018 at 5:44 PM ^

If I had told everybody here in 2016 that the collective MGoBlog psyche in 2018 would be barely more optimistic than it was in 2013 I'd have been sent to Bolivia.

 

mitchewr

September 4th, 2018 at 6:42 PM ^

What? No no, you’ve got it all wrong. 

Everyone here has been totally reasonable from the start, predicting down years and struggles as obviously Jim couldn’t have possibly built an offensive line by year four. We’ve all been perfectly rational and clearly no one expects any sort of quality team performance until at least 2030 when Jim has finally had enough time to recruit his guys and fix the mess Hoke left behind. 

DGM06

September 4th, 2018 at 5:47 PM ^

I wouldn’t say “nobody” had this game penciled in as a loss. The point spread hovered right around a pick ‘em and definitely had ND as the favorite at some point. It’s not like Michigan was a 25 point favorite and lost.

This doesn’t change my expectations at all. This was I think the only true road game featuring two ranked teams in week one; it’s a tall ask to beat the #12 team on the road at night for anyone. Nobody in the big ten had even close to as difficult of an opener. Think Penn St’s or Michigan State’s dogshit efforts in their openers would’ve been good enough to win at ND? At most, only Ohio St and Wisconsin would’ve been able to win that opener. 

I still say 9-3, losses at home against Wisconsin and at Ohio State. 

 

TBuck97

September 4th, 2018 at 6:05 PM ^

I see this in 2 ways bc, on one side, I don’t think we looked all that good on Saturday and we will need to vastly improve in certain areas. 

On the other hand, I am also not convinced that we are in a different spot than we were before the ND game (if the original hope was a CFP visit). In my mind ND was the one we could afford to drop. Although being flawless going forward is a tall order, I still believe we would need to win at OSU regardless in order to reach a big ten title game. A loss in Columbus would mean that the bucks would still need 2 losses in the conference for us to go ahead of them. I think there is no doubt we would have to be undefeated from here on out anyways (even if we had beaten ND) so hopefully the team can learn from here and get it together. I know it’s overly optimistic but I think we’ve bashed them enough already. 

mitchewr

September 4th, 2018 at 6:47 PM ^

Yeah in reality it’s not so much that we just couldn’t afford the loss. We most certainly can. It’s the fact that all our issues from 2017 carried over into 2018 and we really didn’t look all that much better...despite the talk, coaching changes, new QB, etc. 

Obviously some things were a little better, but on the whole the issue remains the same: the offensive line can’t block or pass protect and thus the QB can’t throw, the WRs don’t have time to run their routes and get open, and the RBs have no where to go...this we can’t score points and thus we lose the game despite a valiant effort by our defense. 

I think most of us were just hoping that an entire off-season would have resulted in significant improvements on offense and SO FAR that appears to not be the case. 

We’ll know more when we play Nebraska and Northwestern. 

Swazi

September 4th, 2018 at 6:07 PM ^

Remember:

 

Ohio State when they won the NC a few years back almost lost to Navy in game 1.

Then they lost to a bad Virginia Tech team at VT in game 2.

I know Warinner can improve the line during the season.  I predict 9-3.

Losses to ND (obvs), Wisconsin, and Ohio State.  I think they beat Sparty and Penn State, two other teams with OL issues.

MGoStrength

September 4th, 2018 at 7:07 PM ^

#14 UM lost to #12 ND in a close game on the road.  This game should not change our expectations unless you believed we were significantly better than ND, which I don't think most did.  Although granted, I think most thought although the score was close we would look more effective.  That game never seemed in doubt despite the close final score.

I still think 9-3 makes sense, although I think 8-4 is more likely than 10-2.  I see losses to OSU & Wiscy.  I see beating PSU and MSU (and the rest of the schedule).  But, we could split with those.  The season comes down to if Runyan & JBB can improve and/or are Mayfield & Hudson better if/when they get their chance.

Perkis-Size Me

September 4th, 2018 at 7:08 PM ^

Realistically, 8-4. Maybe 9-3 if a bounce or two goes our way, but 7-5 is more likely than 9-3. I think we’ll win one of the PSU/OSU/MSU/UW games. Probably PSU if I had to guess one now. But the rest are losses. Especially MSU and OSU barring miracles. The reason for that is squarely on the OL. Specifically the tackle positions.

The problem is that I trust most every other position group on the team to allow us to win every game on the schedule. But the tackles are just so awful right now that it almost completely nullifies any progression in the rest of the offense. If you have a bad OL, you have no offense. Not one you can count on consistently anyway. And the OL simply has to get better. If it doesn’t, Nick Bosa could probably kill whoever is left standing at QB by season’s end.

SouthOfHeaven

September 4th, 2018 at 7:13 PM ^

I'll say 8-4, losses to Wisconsin, OSU, and NW. I don't think Sparty is that good, and I think we can beat PSU at home. However, I don't see us beating Wisconsin or OSU with this kind of OL play, and NW could be a road game against a ranked team.

jbrandimore

September 4th, 2018 at 7:30 PM ^

When you are 0-17 against ranked teams on the road, you have to expect that to continue, so losses to MSU and OSU.

I will pencil us in to beat Neb and PSU but lose to Wisconsin.

That’s 4 losses. Let’s hope NW doesn’t managed to become ranked.

Wolverine4545

September 4th, 2018 at 7:36 PM ^

Just like I said from the offseason(maybe not on this site), but I see us losing three of the big five games.

I think Wisc we can win at home. Then likely win at MSU, in my opinion. Loss to tOSU I think is obvious and expected at this point at the shoe. Losing to ND and PSU.

9-3 season. New Years day bowl. People still wanting to fire Harbaugh and get another coach and start the cycle all over again.

Edit: Lemme just say that I don't think there is a better coach we can get with a proven resume. Thus, this year is whatever. Next year with MSU and tOSU is the put up or shut up year for Harbaugh, in my mind.

goblue16

September 4th, 2018 at 7:37 PM ^

I think Harbaugh will get this team going and is gonna surprise a lot of teams.But based on all these depressing expectations where does Harbaugh stand as far as his job knowing he's losing more than half the team next season with another tough schedule?

nissanchristophe

September 4th, 2018 at 9:17 PM ^

Harbaugh is trying to play the game like it was played in the Bo vs. Woody days.  The Astroturf is gone and so is that style of play.  He needs to return to the pros.  Bring in a college coach who understands how to recruit and coach speed and mobility.   That "3 yards and a cloud of dust" mindset reminds me of the people on my job who still come to meetings with printouts of the PowerPoint.  The game has changed.  OSU understands this.  Michigan does not. 

MichiganStan

September 4th, 2018 at 7:38 PM ^

Realistic: 9-3. Beat PSU and MSU. Lose to Wiscy and OSU

Hopeful: 10-2. Beat PSU, MSU, and OSU or Wiscy.

I mean this team has the talent for 10-2. Why cant we pull off an upset over Wiscy or OSU? Penn State and MSU have pulled off big upsets in recent seasons to steal the Big Ten title. WHY CANT WE?

magician2

September 4th, 2018 at 8:04 PM ^

2018 8-5, regressed from 2017's 8-5 (more experienced in 2018)

2016 10-3, regressed from 2015's 10-3 (more experienced in 2016)

2019 7-6

harbaugh will resign in 12/2019 after 4 consecutive regressed years.

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

September 4th, 2018 at 8:19 PM ^

Realistic 8-4 and that will take some a couple of quality wins.  Regardless, I think 10-2 is possible if the guys decide to simply make some key plays and actually get some good bounces. 

chatster

September 4th, 2018 at 8:28 PM ^

Much rides on the next five games.

If they continue to have problems on offense and lose any one of the next five games, especially if it’s at home to Maryland on October 6 in the Homecoming Game (a division contest), then 6-6 could happen with losses to Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State and Ohio State. If they win each of the next five games and show steady progress and consistently good play, then 9-3 with splits in the games against Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State and Ohio State could happen. However, a 9-3 record with losses only to Notre Dame, Northwestern and Wisconsin would be . . . https://youtu.be/O_05qJTeNNI?t=7s

DelhiWolverine

September 4th, 2018 at 8:34 PM ^

For everyone losing their heads about the offense, didn’t most people predict that we would win a tight and low-scoring game? Most predictions had us with right around 20 pts for the game.

The vast majority of people did not think our defense would surrender 24 pts to ND at all. No way. 

And yet everyone is bitching about the offense like they somehow severely underperformed to their expectations. What were you expecting when you predicted a 17-10 Michigan victory? 

Why are most people giving the defense a free pass while simultaneously crucifying the offense? 

I predict that our defense (which we know is good) doesn’t suck that badly in a game again and that our offense improves. Let’s not forget that we scored 17 points on a really good defense and easily could have scored 24 points if not for a few very correctable errors (botched field goal +3, we score from the 2 yd line instead of kicking a FG, +4). 

 

kurpit

September 4th, 2018 at 9:21 PM ^

I don't give the defense a free pass. I think the defensive line was garbage at keeping anything resembling contain on the QB. The secondary got burned over and over again. Hawkins somehow failed to break up a pass that hit him in the fucking hands. It's not like Notre Dame is expected to be some great offense either.

They played bad against an opponent they should be able to handle. This is the kind of game you expect our defense to keep us in, but this time they dug the hole.

Jamezz23

September 4th, 2018 at 8:43 PM ^

The only game I’m willing to concede is Ohio state. We would really need to pull something out of our ass to win that game. 

 

Every other game will be winnable, super tough ones versus Wisconsin, and Michigan state.  But winnable 

BBQJeff

September 4th, 2018 at 8:47 PM ^

6-6 may be the ceiling.   I'm not convinced this team can beat Maryland or possibly even Nebraska.  Other than QB what we saw last Saturday may have been a bit of a step back from last season.  the drop-off from Cole to Runyan was cavernous and the interior of the D-line really did take a noticeable hit with Hurst gone.  I didn't really see any gains anywhere.   

We lost every single 50/50 ball in that game.   Even an early PBU was a lost 50/50 as the ball was underthrown to the point where it should have been picked off.   ND made several defensive players miss in space and broke some tackles.   Michigan made ZERO misses in space and Patterson was the only player to break a tackle.  

Since arriving at Michigan, if my math is correct, Harbaugh is 5-8 in 1 score games.  When MSU went down by 1 point against USU late in the game I had zero doubt they'd engineer a scoring drive to take the lead and that their D would close out.   Ditto for PSU closing out their game.   

When we got the ball at the 35 yard line, down 7 with 1:48 did ANYONE have even a shred of confidence that this team would put together a TD drive and send the game into overtime?   I sure as hell didn't  

chunkums

September 4th, 2018 at 9:00 PM ^

My heart says 9-3 but my head says 8-4. I think the next few weeks will show us a lot. If we can either cut down on the mental mistakes from the current tackles or get the young bucks to a passable level, we could do very well. I imagine we will be able to run the ball against everyone but OSU at least a little bit. If Warriner can't get these players to a passable level by the time we play Wisconsin, I'm not sure who can.

CorbUM724

September 4th, 2018 at 9:01 PM ^

10-2

I thought that the season was over on Saturday after the loss but looking back I think the team will grow from this. I think we lose a close one to Wisconsin but then win out from there. Yes, that means I think we beat MSU and OSU on the road, and in doing so we change the perception that Michigan has had over the past decade or so. It has to happen sometime and I still think this year we have the best chance to do so. Then we will play Wisconsin in the B1G championship and get revenge.

Normally I would be with the rest of you saying 8-4/9-3, but I’m sick of just expecting M to crass and fall after losing a big game. I believe in Harbaugh and this team is loaded with talent. There’s no reason the line can not grow and improve, and I believe that will happen over these next few weeks and the team will prosper. 

Go Blue

Qmatic

September 4th, 2018 at 9:02 PM ^

Based on watching ND and all other B1G teams this week, I would say every B1G team minus OSU would have lost their opener if they played vs ND in South Bend

nissanchristophe

September 4th, 2018 at 9:06 PM ^

Note:  I'm a Michigan Alum.  Class of '86.

Times have changed.  Demographics have changed.  The auto factories aren't coming back.  The steel mills aren't coming back.  The Rust Belt population has dwindled.  Michigan was an elite football program at one time, along with Nebraska...but those days are over.  Does that mean we'll never win or compete for a Championship?  Of course not.  But recall the days when both Michigan and Nebraska were always ranked high in the polls, year after year.  Those days are over.  The population in the South has increased.  The game has moved from big farm kids and eastern PA rifle-armed QBs to kids from the South who can hit top speed in 4 steps and QBs that can run AND throw.  Urban Meyer gets this.  Michigan does not.  Michigan is trying to return to the old days of the 70s and 80s.  Harbaugh was a key part of that script, which is why he was brought in to "Make Michigan Great Again".  Michael J. Fox is not going to show up at The Big House in a DeLorean and return us to the glory days.  We'll have positive seasons going forward, just like Detroit will continue to improve.  But Detroit will never truly be the Motor City again, and Michigan, sad to say, will never return to the days of being perennially ranked high in the polls each season. 

My expectations for this season are losses to MSU, PSU, OSU, and Wisconsin.  

How do we get better?  1 - Stop riding the coattails of Bo, Lloyd Carr, and Charles Woodson, and continuing to call ourselves elite.  That has to be re-earned.   2 - MoneyBall.  Crunch data to identify underrated 1-star or 2-star recruits.  Bring them in and coach them up. MSU never has a recruiting class ranked as high as UM. Find kids with a chip on their shoulder with something to prove.  Michigan has outstanding academics.  Find some data science grad students and make this their project.  3 - Understand that until we become elite again, a 5-star recruit leaving the warm weather and his family in the South will probably choose OSU over UM.  Concentrate on the underrated kids who KNOW they are underrated and want to prove something.  Hint: MSU shows that same old Mike Hart "MSU is our Little Brother" video to the Spartans every season....it works.