What are reasonable Michigan FB Team Success Criteria

Submitted by Rdog on December 5th, 2017 at 5:20 PM

I think there are now 4 primary goals for the football team to achieve each year and most of them are interconnected.

     Beat key rivals (OSU, Michigan State, Rutgers) bonus points for hitting harder

     Win Big10 Championship

     Make National Championship Playoff

     Win National Championship

 

With the exception of beating Rutgers these are hard goals to achieve.   OSU has the #2 ranked 4 year average recruiting class.  OSU's results since 2012 (Meyer's reign)

     2 Big Ten Titles (2014 & 2017)

     1 National Championship (2014)

     2 National Championship Playoff Invites (2014 & 2016).

My personal thought is we beat OSU every other year, Michigan State 75% of the time, Win the Big10 1 out of 4 years, & makes the National Championship 1 out of every 4 years then the program is doing as well as we can reasonably expect.

What say you?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comments

Tuebor

December 5th, 2017 at 5:25 PM ^

Ideal: 1/2 against OSU and 2/3 against MSU with 4 big ten championships a decade.

 

Reasonable: 2/5 against OSU and 1/2 against MSU with 2 big ten championships a decade.

 

I won't even talk national championships because we've only won 1 in the last 70 years.

 

JHumich

December 5th, 2017 at 6:37 PM ^

Once QB and OL play and depth are established?

Reasonable: beat OSU 1/2 the time, MSU every year, win big ten 1/2 the time, playoff berth 4 times a decade, national championship once a decade

Ideal: beat OSU 3/4 of the time, MSU every year, win big ten 3/4 of the time, playoff berth 6 times a decade, national championship 3 times a decade

We have as many undefeated seasons as Alabama since 1980. I expect to pass them by the end of the 2019 season, and then go undefeated at least once again in the decade that follows.

Tuebor

December 6th, 2017 at 11:13 AM ^

Beating MSU every year is unreasonable and not really ideal.

 

Since they've joined the big ten we are 36-27-2 against them. That is a 56.9% winning percentage.

 

If you removed the Dantonio era then we are 33-19-2 against them.  That is a 62.9% winning percentage.

 

Hence why ideally we'd be 2/3 which is approximately the pre Dantonio average.  

Lakeyale13

December 5th, 2017 at 9:17 PM ^

My expectations hinge on what OSU does not Michigan. My expectations are:

1. Urban retires in 5 years.
2. OSU's football hierarchy hires a square peg in a round hole for a Coach and then does everything to undermine him.
3. They then fire said Coach and replace him with an average MAC Coach that is Al Bundy (Fred Flinstone already taken) who inevitably finds himself way over his head and can't right the ship.
4. After self sabotaging their program for a decade they finally make a decent hire and get a Coach that might challenge us after The Wolverines have beat their ass ten years in a row.

Please let this become a reality. I dont want to be the only team to get "bad things"!

J_Dub

December 5th, 2017 at 5:27 PM ^

1)  Avoid anything embarassing that will bring public shame to the institution I put on my resume.

2)  Win BIG championship every few years and be competitive in off-years (within a game or several plays of being in the championship).

3)  That is all.  If we do #2, we will get some national titles as well.

corundum

December 5th, 2017 at 5:27 PM ^

Making the NCG 1 out of every 4 years might be slightly unrealistic seeing how competitive the conference will be between Michigan, OSU, PSU, Wisconsin, MSU, and eventually Nebraska.

Have to imagine we split with OSU/PSU for the east at best, then have to battle Wisconsin and eventually Nebraska for the conference, then have to beat another strong candidate in the semis. I would be happy with making the playoff 1 out of every 3 years.

CLion

December 5th, 2017 at 5:30 PM ^

At this point, with as good as OSU is, I think it's as simple as beating OSU 1/2 games and beating MSU 2/3 until  D'Antoni goes elsewhere. If those things happen, I assume the rest will happen (except a Natty).

ST3

December 5th, 2017 at 6:24 PM ^

I agree. We've got to win the division first. It's been so long since we've won the Conference. Contrast that to John Beilein who in 10 seasons has won the regular season title twice and the Big 10 playoffs once, and yet, we have a poor showing like last night and nearly everybody is on his back about not being elite. For football, I'll take 3 division titles and 2 conference titles every decade. Folks were spoiled by Bo. But it's not the Big 2 and little 8 anymore. We shouldn't expect to win the conference every other year on average. It would be nice, but OSU, PSU, MSU, Wisconsin, and some once a century team from the rest of the Big 10 is going to have their say as well.

goblue16

December 5th, 2017 at 5:32 PM ^

For football:

1. Beat MSU and/or OSU every other year

2. win a big ten title or at least the division every 4 years

3. Make the playoffs once every 4 years

4. Win a national championship every 10-15 years

For basketball:

1.Split with OSU/MSU every year

2. Finish in the top 7 of the big ten every year

3. Win a big ten title or tourney title every 4 years

4. Make the NCAA tourney every year barring any major injury

5. Win one more NCAA tourney before I die (I am 28 years old)

GeorgetownTom

December 5th, 2017 at 5:56 PM ^

Re: basketball bullet point #2

I think this is too low a bar. The B1G has only one "blue blood" basketball program in Indiana that has institutional advantages over Michgian. But after Indiana, Michigan sits in a group of schools that is very similar in terms of past success and future ceiling. I believe this tier consists of the following schools in no particular order:

Ohio State
Michigan State
Michigan
Illinois
Maryland

In theory, if IU is operating at maximum capacity, then the schools in the above tier will never be able to surpass IU. However, there is nothing preventing Michigan from being better than the other schools in this tier. That means realistically Michigan should be finishing in the top 2 to top 6 of the B1G every year. It's also unlikely that all 5 of these schools plus Indiana are operating at maximum capacity at the same time, that's why for me Michigan should finish in the top 4 every year.

Note: if you're wondering about Wisconsin or Purdue, I think Michigan has a much higher ceiling than both.

 

FauxMo

December 5th, 2017 at 5:33 PM ^

That-That-That's a good question.

 

What-What happens is, the-the-the center has-has the ball first.

 

And-And-And the quarterback will say, "Hike."

 

That's when the c-center puts the ball in-into the hands of the quarterback.

 

So what I do is, l-I start tacklin' the quarterback, unless he give the ball to-to s-somebody else, in which case, l-I try to tackle that person.

Brian Griese

December 5th, 2017 at 8:05 PM ^

every year, come November, we should be nationally relevant with a legitimate shot to win the conference (think the 2015 team minus the MSU game which totally never happened). On top of that, once every 4 years I expect us to have a team that could play for a natty (2016 team, 2006 team) if things fall the right way. If those are being accomplished I know we’ll be successful against the two most pressing issues: rivals and ranked teams on the road.

LloydCarnac

December 5th, 2017 at 5:37 PM ^

1) Protects the QB from injuries and constant sacks by pass protecting

2) Gets a 2-yd push for running plays

3) Plays like a hungry junkyard dog until the whistle blows

4) Creates run lanes

5) Avoids stupid penalties

6) Hits somebody every play

7) Gets our pathetic offense back on track

8) Gives our defense a break by making first downs, moving the ball, and scoring TDs

Gr1mlock

December 5th, 2017 at 5:41 PM ^

Oh.  Good.  Another thread with takes on what "success" means.  Becuase this isn't a topic that (a) hasn't been discussed ad naseum and (b) isn't 100% feelings ball.  I'm sure some productive discussions will arise.  

getsome

December 5th, 2017 at 5:50 PM ^

cant imagine many being disappointed with conference rings every 4 years to go with college playoff appearances.

its not like theyre splitting big ten titles after 9-3 or 8-4 seasons, theyd need to win the divison and then win in indy...no simple task to rack up conference titles.  i think every 4 years would be outstanding.  maybe a little generous given modern history but still reasonable.  and if the big ten champ makes the playoff at a decent clip, theyd likely have decent odds of turning conference titles into playoff appearances.

if harbaugh can average bw 9-10 wins per season, graduate his players and reestablish michigan as consistent nfl factory, then hes succeeded...that should translate to some big ten rings, rivalry game wins, playoff appearances, etc

SFBlue

December 5th, 2017 at 5:52 PM ^

Hiring Jim Harbaugh was a great start. 

There is no pat answer here. Expectations and goals evolve based on where the program is. For this year, I think a New Year's Bowl was a reasonable measure of success. Ditto for the last two years ('15 and '16). Michigan exceeded expectations last year, and perhaps in '15 as well.  

I think the goal for next year is to compete for a B1G title. With the talent coming back on defense, and given it is year four for Harbaugh, that is reasonable. A New Years Six bowl is the measure of a good season, next year. 

Elwood

December 5th, 2017 at 6:04 PM ^

Or more depending on luck and schedule.

Let’s not underestimate how hard it is to go undefeated. Being consistently really good is great (and really all we can ask for).

Magnum P.I.

December 5th, 2017 at 6:06 PM ^

You guys saying 1/2 against MSU need to get your heads on straight. The natural order of things is for us to win 2/3. And that's an absolute minimum expectation as far as I'm concerned.