Weekly Updated ESPN Bracketology

Submitted by Mr. Yost on February 2nd, 2013 at 10:15 AM

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

EAST
1. Florida
2. Indiana
3. L'ville
4. Butler

WEST
1. Duke
2. Arizona
3. MSU
4. New Mexico

MIDWEST
1. Michigan
2. Syracuse
3. Miami (FL)
4. Oregon

SOUTH
1. Kansas
2. Gonzaga
3. Ohio
4. Cincinnati

That EAST bracket would be murder, 3 potential #1 seeds in the same region and a Butler team that is always dangerous (and getting its best players back after losing games without them).

The MIDWEST doesn't look that bad, but it has every team that is dangerous/sneaky. Miami (FL) is big a physical and destroyed Duke. Oregon is the best team no one knows about (not Ole Miss). I don't mind the Syracuse matchup...in most years I'd cringe. I think they're tough to prepare for. But if they want to bring that zone vs. this team...good luck.

Comments

Mr. Yost

February 2nd, 2013 at 10:27 AM ^

EAST
1. Michigan
2. Syracuse
3. Oregon
4. NC State

WEST
1. Florida
2. Arizona
3. Gonzaga
4. New Mexico

MIDWEST
1. Indiana
2. Louisville
3. MSU
4. Butler

SOUTH
1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Ohio
4. Miami (FL)

Mr. Yost

February 2nd, 2013 at 12:53 PM ^

But has them winning the B1G Tournament in Chicago and getting the #1 overall seed.

Knocks us to the third overall #1 seed behind Big XII regular season and tournament champs in Kansas.

Doesn't matter, even if we were the 2nd overall, I think we would've went East and them South.

Mr. Yost

February 2nd, 2013 at 1:09 PM ^

I'd go

EAST
1. Michigan
2. Syracuse

WEST
1. Florida
3. Gonzaga  (I'd actually look for a #5 or lower seed)

MIDWEST
1. Indiana
3. MSU

SOUTH
1. Kansas
3. Ohio (I'd actually look for a #5 or lower seed)

I'd take "chalk" to the Final Four.

Championship: Michigan vs. Kansas

Michigan's 4 games vs. IU (2-2) help them prepare for Jeff Withey...Michigan wins 70-65

BostonWolverine

February 2nd, 2013 at 10:39 AM ^

Interesting, Yost. If Duke loses enough without Ryan Kelly, they could slip to a 2. I don't know when he's slated to return, though. Is it possible that they could be a scary 2-seed with Kelly back for the tournament?

chatster

February 2nd, 2013 at 10:56 AM ^

Two teams that might slide in the brackets are Duke and Syracuse.

As said by BostonWolverine, Duke could be without senior forward Ryan Kelly for the rest of the regular season. He has been out with a foot injury since January 9. Duke is 3-2 since then with a tough game today at Florida State. They’re trying to rely on Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry to score almost three quarters of their points. And Curry has been playing with an injured shin all season.

Syracuse remains without top sixth man and three-point specialist James Southerland who plans to appeal for reinstatement from a suspension that may be for academic transgressions, so his return is doubtful. They’ll also be without injured 6-9 freshman forward DaJuan Coleman for at least four weeks, so they’re down to seven scholarship players and little front court depth. They’re at Pitt today (always a tough place for Syracuse and Pitt coach Jamie Dixon has no problem beating Jim Boeheim and the Orange) and then face Notre Dame at home on Monday. Losses in those games would put Syracuse on a three-game losing streak, and then they face an improving St. John’s team next weekend. 

Mr. Yost

February 2nd, 2013 at 12:57 PM ^

Kentucky.

Can you imagine having to play UK in the 2nd round as a #1 seed?

They seemed headed for that #8/#9 game and they're only going to get better this year.

I don't think they're championship worthy, but I definitely don't want to play them in the 2nd round!

LSAClassOf2000

February 2nd, 2013 at 2:36 PM ^

Here's a table of projected tournament odds for each of these teams via TeamRankings, altough their data is also used by ESPN Insider in concert with some other sources, I believe. In any case, I still wonder about why Florida gets the edge in this algorithm - so far, the site hasn't answered me about how their algorithm weights certain things. Looking at their schedule for a moment, there is probably not a game left which they wouldn't have about an 4 in 5 chance of winning in isolation - I don't know if there is another team that has a realizable shot that could say this. Further, in this projected bracket, they would have a relatively easy go in the first two rounds. 

  Tourney Odds Seed Odds Advance To…
Any Auto At Large #1 Top 4 Sweet 16 Final 4 Champ%
1. Florida 100% 69% 31% 76% 100% 84% 52% 26.40%
2. Indiana 100% 46% 54% 51% 98% 80% 43% 18.10%
1. Kansas 100% 48% 52% 76% 100% 69% 27% 6.60%
3. L'ville 100% 32% 68% 11% 89% 66% 23% 6.30%
1. Duke 100% 46% 54% 33% 97% 67% 24% 6.20%
2. Syracuse 100% 27% 73% 39% 97% 64% 21% 4.70%
1. Michigan 100% 18% 82% 25% 92% 62% 20% 4.50%
2. Gonzaga 100% 67% 33% 12% 96% 62% 19% 4.10%
2. Arizona 100% 45% 55% 35% 97% 57% 15% 2.70%
3. Ohio 99% 12% 87% 1% 33% 43% 11% 2.20%
3. Miami (FL) 100% 21% 79% 30% 96% 50% 10% 1.40%
3. MSU 99% 5% 94% 1% 31% 32% 5% 0.70%
4. Cincinnati 97% 8% 89% 1% 34% 31% 5% 0.60%
4. New Mexico 100% 16% 84% 3% 66% 29% 3% 0.20%
4. Butler 93% 13% 81% 0% 31% 18% 1% 0.10%
4. Oregon 95% 13% 83% 0% 22% 17% 2% 0.10%