Week 9 Polls and Ratings - Bye Week Edition

Submitted by Leaders And Best on October 24th, 2018 at 12:56 PM

A review of where Michigan stacks up in the advanced stats:

AP Poll #5:  http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll

Coaches Poll #5: http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/

F/+ #5: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

S&P+ #4: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

FEI #6: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei

Massey Ratings #5 (#6 Power Rating): http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings

Sagarin Ratings #4 (#4 in Predictor): http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

ESPN FPI #4: http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

SRS #2: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

Michigan's team statistical profile:

Football Study Hall: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml

ESPN FPI: http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=130&year=2018

Massey Ratings: https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4741&s=300937

 

Chances of winning out (ESPN FPI and 538 include conference championship game I believe): ESPN FPI: 23.1%; S&P+ 34%; 538 22%; Massey 33%.

S&P+ and FEI offense and defense ratings are out now:

Offense:

S&P+ #30

FEI #21

ESPN #14

Massey #18

Defense:

S&P+ #1

FEI #3

ESPN #3

Massey #5

And a look at our SOS:

S&P+ #31

FEI #20

Massey #13

Sagarin #20

 

Comments

Leaders And Best

October 24th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^

Yes.

The worst number on Michigan right now is Michigan is #80 on offense on passing downs by S&P+. 3rd and long has not been good.

Michigan is also #96 on defense in turnover rate (percentage of drives that end up in fumble/interception) by FEI, but I think that may be a product of the fact that Michigan's defense is good at preventing first downs (#7) and scheme (press man may lead to less interceptions). If you see less plays per drive you are probably going to force less turnovers.

jbibiza

October 24th, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^

I think it is clear that Shea has been told that protecting the ball is a top priority.
As he gets more comfortable in the system it is likely that they will loosen the reins on his natural propensity to go for it.

All the vectors are positive as they work to mesh ball security with a bit more swagger.

Leaders And Best

October 24th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^

S&P+ looks does metrics per play. They quantify it differently as Havoc Rate (sack, FF, PD, or INT), but our DB Havoc rate is a little above average (#44), and our PD-to-INC (percentage of opponent passes defensed or intercepted) ranks pretty low--#89. Not sure how to explain it. It might be because our sack rate is so high (#2 or #3) that QBs are just throwing the ball away? Don't know.

Reggie Dunlop

October 24th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^

I saw you making similar points in another thread. You're obviously not wrong. I will just say that this is college football and every single year without fail, teams eat it down the stretch. Don't fret. 12-1 Michigan is in.

Actually, let's check this and see if my point holds up.

2017 initial CFP top 4:  Georgia, Alabama, ND, Clemson. ND lost. Oklahoma took that 4th spot.

2016 initial CFP top 4:  Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, A&M.  (sad face) OSU & Washington replaced us and A&M

2015 initial CFP top 4:  Clemson, LSU, OSU & Alabama.  Clemson, Alabama, MSU & Oklahoma made it.

2014 initial CFP top 4:  Miss State, FSU, Auburn & Ole Miss.  Alabama, Oregon, FSU & Ohio State made it.

 

4 years of CFP. An average of two teams of the Top 4 get bounced between initial rankings and the final four every year. It feels like we're perilously close to the finish line, but there's so much season left. I think 12-1 Michigan makes it regardless, but I guarantee somebody up there will lose. Happens every year.

Anyway, just trying to provide a little peace of mind.

 

Hail-Storm

October 24th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^

This is good to look ahead, but I don't want Michigan to take BYE easy.  I've seen teams drop when playing BYE.  Hopefully that doesn't happen to Michigan and they take it seriously this week. 

The Mad Hatter

October 24th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^

What numbers are you looking at?  We win out and 538 gives us an 88% chance of making the playoff.

Although they have Oklahoma ahead of us for some reason if all of the top 5 win out.

They're wrong.  Oklahoma isn't getting picked for the playoffs ahead of a 12-1 Michigan, on a 12 game winning streak, whose only loss was to undefeated Notre Dame, by a single TD, in the first game of the season.  Which also happened to be at night in South Bend.

Nate Silver is a smart man.  But he's not a wizard.

The Mad Hatter

October 24th, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^

Our chances of winning out seem rather low considering that OSU just got their dicks knocked in the dirt by Purdue.  And PSU lost to MSU, who we just pounded.  And Mike DeBord is Indiana's OC.

Does 538 think that Rutger players are going to be armed or something?

Leaders And Best

October 24th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^

Big Ten note: Two of the more underrated teams in the polls this week (relative to their advanced stats) are Iowa and PSU. Interested to see how that Iowa-PSU game plays out this week. Most of the computer ratings have them higher than in the polls, and S&P+ is higher on PSU while FEI is higher on Iowa.

Could be a body-blow game for Michigan as well being able to catch PSU at home the following week.

Eng1980

October 24th, 2018 at 5:20 PM ^

I share your interest and thoughts.  I pegged PSU for at least 3 losses this season (while hoping for 5 with Pitt and Indiana chipping in.)  Ferentz is working some magic with a general lack of recruiting stars and a relatively young squad yet their advanced stats are way above my projections.  It appears that even advanced stats can't completely factor out the weak schedule.  I think PSU handles Iowa unless James Franklin is even less of a coach than some of us think.

bluepdx

October 24th, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^

Shea Patterson has high-value room to improve in ways that are actually viable, even this far into the season. 

Even a 10-20% marginal improvement (I mean this in a general sense -- decision making, accuracy, reads, whatever) would yield significantly greater % marginal improvement in the overall offense.