Week 13 Polls and Ratings - Rivalry Week Edition

Submitted by Leaders And Best on November 19th, 2018 at 9:41 AM

A review of where Michigan stacks up in the advanced stats before The Game. FEI won't be out for a couple days so the F/+ and FEI are not updated at this time.

AP Poll #4:  http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll

Coaches Poll #4: http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/

F/+ #??: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

S&P+ #4: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

FEI #??: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei

Massey Ratings #5 (#4 Power Rating): http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings

Sagarin Ratings #3 (#3 in Predictor): http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

ESPN FPI #4: http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

SRS #2: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

538 #5: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

Michigan's team statistical profile:

Football Study Hall: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml

ESPN FPI: http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=130&year=2018

Massey Ratings: https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4741&s=300937

 

Odds on Michigan winning The Game:

ESPN FPI: 54.3%
S&P+: 60%
538: 54%
Massey: 63%

S&P+ has Michigan as a -4.5 favorite, Massey -4 favorite, Sagarin as -0.5 favorite.

S&P+ and FEI offense and defense ratings:

Offense:

Offense:

S&P+:
Michigan #23
OSU #5

FEI: not released

ESPN:
Michigan #12
OSU #8

Massey:
Michigan #15
OSU #6

Defense:

S&P+:
Michigan #2
OSU #38

FEI: not released

ESPN:
Michigan #4
OSU #46

Massey:
Michigan #5
OSU #47

And a look at our SOS:

S&P+ #37
FEI not released
Massey #19
Sagarin #40

Comments

Leaders And Best

November 19th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^

I could be wrong but aren't some of the officials not fixed to a particular crew? I thought there are 8-12 officials on the field, but only some of them are in full-time crew and the rest are contracted out from a pool of officials in the area?

I don't know that much about it, but that is what I thought.

My guess is we are going to get Jerry McGinn's or Mike Cannon's crew, but there is no way of knowing until gameday. O'Neill worked our game last week, and Kluczynski worked OSU's game last week. So those two are probably out. That would leave McGinn, Cannon or Dan Capron most likely. Capron worked The Game the last time in Columbus so I have feeling it won't be him again. Ron Snodgrass worked The Game last year so I doubt he would get the gig two years in a row. That is why I am betting on McGinn or Cannon.

ak47

November 19th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^

That OSU offensive rating is terrifying. I don't know how anyone can be confident. Its a 50/50 game that comes down to whether our offense can get its head out its ass in terms of finishing drives with touchdowns

outsidethebox

November 19th, 2018 at 10:37 AM ^

Well, what you should have great confidence in is that the outcome of this game will be totally unrelated to your level of confidence...or that of any of the rest of us commenting here!!!

I will be shocked if Michigan does not play hard-give great effort. Not doing so will be my only reason for real disappointment. OSU has one helluva talented roster. Why so many fans seem to be considering this game to approach being a gimme game for Michigan is very unreasonable. 

lhglrkwg

November 19th, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^

It'll depend on how good Don Brown's gameplan is. Seeing IU move the ball relatively well using a similar offense has me concerned. Then again, Don Brown has had solid gameplans for OSU both years he's been here. Getting into a shootout with OSU is not a game I foresee us winning

The Mad Hatter

November 19th, 2018 at 10:42 AM ^

Strangely, 538 thinks that Georgia has a better chance of getting in that we do.  They also think that OSU has a better chance if they win out.

I think Nate Silver is slipping.

ak47

November 19th, 2018 at 10:53 AM ^

Georgia is 100% guaranteed in if they win out. Michigan could get bumped out by Georgia beating Bama and still getting in, Oklahoma potentially jumping us is a possibillity too. 

So it would make sense Georgia is higher because they truly 100% control their own destiny while its only like 95% chance Michigan does.

I think OSU's is higher because the model probably thinks its more likely OSU could jump ND but I don't agree with that assessment.

Leaders And Best

November 19th, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^

538 has always been lower on Michigan making the playoff. Their formula somehow uses the committee's past behavior in determining their forecast for who makes the playoff. My guess is the head-to-head loss to another playoff contender Notre Dame is the reason they have our odds lower. It is the only thing that makes sense to me. If you set the model to have ND lose to USC, it raises our playoff odds more than any other team and shifts us back above OSU and Oklahoma.

oriental andrew

November 19th, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^

Too bad you can't edit, would've been nice to have UM O vs osu D / UM D vs osu O ratings. 

On that note...

UM O vs osu D:

S&P+:  Michigan O #23 / osu D #38

ESPN: Michigan O #12 / osu D #46

Massey: Michigan O #15 / osu D #47

UM D vs osu O:

S&P+: Michigan D #2 / osu O #5

ESPN: Michigan D #4 / osu O #8

Massey: Michigan D #5 / osu O #6

 

 

Leaders And Best

November 19th, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^

Definitely going to be a strength on strength matchup. OSU is the best offense we have faced all year, and their style of play is much different than Wisconsin's, who is the second best. I don't think we have faced a passer as good as Haskins so it will be a test for our defense.

The stats look like we should have an advantage with our offense facing their defense, and Michigan is going to have to capitalize on that end based on the numbers.

Hopefully, they bring the edit function back at some point for original posts. I would have liked to add the FEI data later in the week when it is released.