Week 12 Polls & Ratings: AP #14, Coaches #13

Submitted by Leaders And Best on November 15th, 2015 at 12:00 PM

Comments

ijohnb

November 15th, 2015 at 1:44 PM ^

Do think we will get jumped by somebody in the CFP poll though. I don't know what the committee is going to make of us after yesterday. Until yesterday we had a calling card. We were the "elite D" team. It made us the most appealing 2 loss team, gave us a calling card. Any claim to that label was blown up in spectacular fashion yesterday. I am not sure what we are after yesterday and I don't think they will either. It helps that TCU looked like garbage, but I don't think we will be 10, and that is what you would have thought just looking at the teams that lost. I don't think we will jump Baylor and teams with 2 losses like FSU probably threaten us too. I will say that after yesterday, it is highly unlikely that the Big ten champ gets left out, us included.

4godkingandwol…

November 15th, 2015 at 4:06 PM ^

You know, I'm not even annoyed by you. I actually pity you for having such an empty life that you hang out on other people's message boards to make unoriginal negative comments. Outside of the make believe world of internet message boards, you must be a very lonely sad person.

alum96

November 15th, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^

If they run the table and beat Clemson they would be in IMO at 12-1.  SOS sort of sucks but beating CFP committee #1 would help.

I dont see it as a "threat", just a replacement (maybe) for 1 of the 4 spots already condeded to Clemson.  ACC champion would get a spot (13-0 Clemson or 12-1 NC).

NC Sagarin SOS is 73 which is Baylorish.

The 2 main "threats" to UM are

  1. 11-1 Notre Dame
  2. a 2 loss Pac 12 champion, especially Utah who has the head to head.  But even 2 loss Stanford is a threat.  Those are coin tosses vs 2 loss UM.

You sort of concede ACC, SEC, and Big 12 (if 0 or 1 loss) 3 of the 4 spots.  Big 10, Pac 12 and Notre Dame vying for spot #4 IMO as long as B12 "champ" is undefeated (OK State) or has 1 loss and is named Oklahoma.

alum96

November 15th, 2015 at 12:43 PM ^

Big 10 will keep "beating each other up" the same way as the Big 12 will in next 3 weeks.

OSU MSU Iowa have the easier path than UM to the playoffs as all have 0 or 1 loss.

Iowa has the easiest path of all.  1 real game left and its the championship game.  UM has 3 tough games, OSU has 3 tough games and MSU has 3 tough games although PSU at home is not as tough as on the road.

B12 message boards will say same thing about us as we do about them - Big 10 top teams are all about to all go and maul each other.

Wolvie3758

November 15th, 2015 at 12:51 PM ^

a suddenly resurgent Neb win over Iowa to end the season..IN Lincoln in a game the Cornhuskers will have to have in order to salvage the season and make a bowl game...This wouldnt be good for Michigan if they somehow beat Penn St and OSU..BUT I think its going to happen..If they can beat MSU they can beat Iowa

alum96

November 15th, 2015 at 12:23 PM ^

It's really a moot point.

Oregon beat Stanford and Utah lost to Zona so you can at least see the logic in it. (MSU's Oregon win looks better and our Utah loss worse)  We are still the highest rated 2 loss team even to the coach's grad assistants...err coaches.

But again its moot - only 1 poll matters and OSU beating MSU this weekend will make them go bubye in all polls.

Mr. Yost

November 15th, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^

Because ND is a pseudo ACC team. So maybe they hurt UNC? Then again UNC will have beaten Clemson and ND lost to them albeit, on the road.

It'll definitely be an interesting debate. What if UNC barely beats #1 Clemson? Does that knock Clemson out? That's tough to go from #1 to OUT with a close loss to a 12-1 top 10 team. You could say Clemson's loss is just as good as anyone elses...and they will have beaten ND. So does it knock ND out?

It's going to be an interesting 2 weeks. That's why I said, what had to happen...has happened (outside of Stanford beating ND).

Now it's just a waiting game...OSU has to beat MSU and Michigan has to win out. Trying to figure everything else out is no longer a matter of fact. It's strictly opinion "there's no way this would happen" "but they will be conference champions"...all of that is pointless because NONE of us are in the room.

But what had to happen was Stanford HAD to lose and Utah HAD to lose. LSU's loss is also helpful.

MSU and ND are the final "HAVE TO LOSE" teams that aren't really debatable. After that, we're just speculating. Which is pointless. So just get those two losses...win our games and see what happens in the end.

SpikeFan2016

November 15th, 2015 at 1:03 PM ^

Stanford absolutely should be below us. 

They have no wins over a top 20 team, the same amount of losses as us and lost to a team that we beat by THIRTY-EIGHT POINTS. 

Sure, now we've had a few close games, but if Washington State makes a 35 yard field goal then Stanford has 3 losses right now. 

Plus, our losses are definitely "better" than their losses. 

Leaders And Best

November 15th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^

Stanford has wins @USC, @Washington State, UCLA and Washington. Their losses are worse than Michigan's, but I think their wins are better too. Michigan has one or two quality wins, both at home (Northwestern and BYU).

Stanford has played a more difficult schedule to this point than Michigan, and almost every advanced rating has them above Michigan except for S&P+.

SpikeFan2016

November 15th, 2015 at 5:04 PM ^

How is a 4-6 Washington team at home that likely will not make a bowl game a good win? BYU is sure as hell a much better win than that. Hell, Indiana on the road is a better win that that. As is Minnesota, especially given both our games were on the road. Minnesota and IU are both better than Wash. 

 

Washington State is also a closer win than either of ours at Minnesota or Indiana; they were thoroughly outplayed the whole game. WSU had two interceptions in the last 5 minutes and STILL was kicking a field goal to win. Plus, I think people forget that WSU lost to an FCS team at home this season and frankly should've lost a close game to our dear old Rutgers. 

Leaders And Best

November 15th, 2015 at 6:12 PM ^

When @Minnesota and @Indiana are the wins you are touting for Michigan's quality wins, I don't think you are making a very good case. Taking all bias out of this, go look at the advanced statistics. There is almost a consensus. And while you are so focused on Washington, you are ignoring the 3 or 4 better wins for Stanford. I even left out Arizona.

And Washington has played better than Minnesota and Indiana this year. Have you seen Washington's schedule? Almost every advanced metrics site has Washington in the top 25-40 range. Washington has wins @USC and Arizona. Minnesota and Indiana have nothing near that.

SpikeFan2016

November 15th, 2015 at 4:50 PM ^

It's one thing to drop from #2 in the rankings for winning close; much different for dropping when you're already at the fringe of the top 15. Not going to happen. 

 

MSU dropped because the only reason they were ranked #2 was that people thought Oregon was a top 5 team until they imploded and there were about 6-/7 other undefeated teams with better resumes than MSU. 

 

If we were to be punished there would need to be other two loss teams that have been looking worse than us, but with people losing ahead of us, it offsets.

 

Technically we did get jumped by Houston and UNC this week, so we were punished, it's just different when there are also people losing ahead of you to offset it. 

alum96

November 15th, 2015 at 12:27 PM ^

Stanford and ND are almost exact parallels in advanced stats.  High powered offenses with "decent not great defenses".  I mean almost identical last week in their ranks.  Game is in Palo Alto.  Midwest teams dont usually travel well west.  Lets not concede that game at all.  I expect it to be 42-38 type of game that goes down to last possession.

ghost

November 15th, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^

ND will not get in over an undefeated OK St.  That would make the playoff implode.  You can forget about that happening.    Ok St.  will have more good wins and a conference title.  Oklahoma may also beat out ND because again the actually have some high profile wins.  It isn't just a strength of schedule competition.  

ghost

November 15th, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^

ND will not get in over an undefeated OK St.  That would make the playoff implode.  You can forget about that happening.    Ok St.  will have more good wins and a conference title.  Oklahoma may also beat out ND because again the actually have some high profile wins.  It isn't just a strength of schedule competition.  

ghost

November 15th, 2015 at 12:44 PM ^

Its not happening.  That would be the end of the committee if they did that.  The Big12 would blow up the playoff and the other 4 major conferences would likely do the same.  ND doesn't have the power they had in the previous system.

You can't leave an undefeated major conference champ out for a team with a lose.  It invalidates the playoff.  

Michigan4Life

November 16th, 2015 at 12:48 AM ^

when there aren't enough sample size to determine which team is truly the top 4 team. FCS and lower divisions have been using 16 team playoff and it works just fine for them. The cream always rise to the top anyway and it is better than the committee leaving out the potential national champion like TCU last year.