Week 12 Opening Lines: Iowa @ Michigan OTB

Submitted by Leaders And Best on November 11th, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Week 12 Opening Lines of interest:

Iowa @ Michigan - off the board

Minnesota @ Nebraska -19

Ohio State @ Wisconsin -1

Northwestern @ MSU -5

Wake Forest @ ND -22

Stanford @ Oregon -24

Kansas St. @ Baylor +10

 

Early betting coming in on Wisconsin (line moving to -2.5), MSU (moving to -6), Stanford (moving to +22), KSU (moving to -11 to -12), and ND (moving to -24).

 

 

Comments

Leaders And Best

November 11th, 2012 at 7:42 PM ^

MSU is playing at home coming off a bye week against a team that just had an emotional OT loss where their 2 best offensive players got banged up.

Sagarin model would have MSU as a -2 pt favorite, but I think some other models like FO would have MSU as an even bigger favorite. And those don't factor in the bye week and injuries.

Jeff09

November 11th, 2012 at 7:34 PM ^

I was just wondering, how would the Michigan line differ if either we knew for certain that Denard was playing, or knew for certain that Devin was playing?  Curious if anyone knows people in Vegas who could answer this type of question.  That might be the single best objective measure of the Denard v. Devin discussion that everyone either really wants to have or really doesn't want to have.

LSAClassOf2000

November 11th, 2012 at 7:45 PM ^

If we were to go by the Sagarin ratings, current as of earlier today, Michigan would be a 16-point favorite at home against Iowa right now, if I am using the model correctly. This might even be reasonable at this point as an opening line, given how these numbers have been trending recently - we've remained fairly stable in the Sagarin ratings, whereas Iowa has dropped significantly. 

jmblue

November 11th, 2012 at 7:50 PM ^

So Wisconsin (which plays OSU and then PSU) could potentially finish 5-3 or even 4-4 and win the Big Ten title while Michigan could potentially finish 7-1 and get shut out.  That's just crazy.  Needless to say, I'm not a big fan of the divisions and conference title game.   I never had a problem with having teams share the league title.

 

 

Monocle Smile

November 11th, 2012 at 10:56 PM ^

He said conference championships can screw the best team in the conference.

Michigan State was not the best team in the conference last year, nor did it have a better overall record than the team it lost to. The difference in conference record was a single game. Ergo, complaining about MSU getting "screwed" by a conference championship game that was most definitely a contest between the best two teams in the conference is nothing short of whining.

aiglick

November 12th, 2012 at 2:18 AM ^

Would be really bad for Michigan for OSU to lose before playing us.

If Nebraska doesn't lose a game we may have a shot at a Top-14 BCS ranking by winning out which would give us a shot at an at-large BCS berth.

Iowa win would not count for much unless other teams ahead of us look bad by losing games.

OSU is almost a top 5 team and a win against such a team on the road in a rivalry game should look pretty impressive to people and result in a massive ranking lift were we to win out.

Focus on Iowa but BCS may be in reach even without a Nebraska loss.

TruBluMich

November 12th, 2012 at 7:42 AM ^

I'm trying real hard to figure out the scenario where we end up in a BCS game this year, unless it's the Rose Bowl.  Right now were ranked 21st, so we have to move up 7 spots.

As for the SEC I don't see any of those teams moving below Michigan even with 3 losses, so you can take them out of the equation.

Florida State has to lose to Florida and in the ACC CCG.
Oklahoma would have to beat Oklahoma State and lose to TCU or West Virginia.
Texas would have to beat TCU and lose to Kansas State.
Oregon State has to lose to Oregon.
Stanford has to lose to Oregon and beat UCLA.
UCLA has to lose to USC in a close game and lose to Stanford.
USC has to beat UCLA and lose to Notre Dame and also Oregon in CCG.  (this opens another at-large)
Rutgers has to beat Louisville and lose to Cincinnati or Pitt.
As for Louisiana Tech ya they might lose a game I doubt it, so the computers are going to have to help.
Then if any of the 2 loss SEC teams lose 2 games.

Then it comes down to the selection process.
BCS = Oregon and Kansas State
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This is almost the only matchup that allows Michigan into a BCS game, KState could lose to Baylor and there is still a possibility but very slim.  There are a few other scenarios but highly unlikley.

Rose Bowl = Nebraska vs Open
Orange Bowl = Miami (Remember FSU has to lose the CCG) vs OPEN
Sugar Bowl = Alabama/Georgia vs OPEN
Fiesta Bowl = OPEN vs OPEN

So 5 open spots assuming there is only one PAC12 team, teams we would be competiting with LSU, Georgia/Alabama, South Carolina, Florida, Texas A&M, Clemson and USC/Stanford/UCLA and Notre Dame.

Now only one of the 4 SEC teams is getting an at-large bid and its going to be Georgia or Alabama with a small possibility of Florida or LSU in the Fiesta Bowl.  Now if there's a PAC12 team available they are going to the Rose Bowl.  So there's Notre Dame, Clemson and Michigan left for 3 open spots.  Notre Dame is an automatic qualifier.  So in this very very very very highly unlikely scenario Michigan would go to the Orange Bowl, Clemson whichever bowl Alabama isn't in and play Georgia and Notre Dame gets a shot at Bama.

Now there is a very real chance Notre Dame passes Oregon and makes the BCS NCG, in that case, were out unless all 3 PAC12 teams lose.

JohnnyV123

November 12th, 2012 at 4:47 AM ^

Stanford +24 is a real interesting bet.

Oregon hasn't played anyone with a great run defense this year so it really comes down to how you feel about Stanford's offense. That new QB they have in there looked good enough last week and they got the win over Oregon State who also has a good defense and elite rush defense.

I'm betting on Stanford!