Weather Update: Joaquin now classified as a hurricane; not projected to make landfall until Monday

Submitted by SAMgO on September 30th, 2015 at 7:59 AM

New day, new projections from the National Weather Service. Here's the latest projection map for what is now Hurricane Joaquin (and here's the link because the proportionality gets skewed in the forum):

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]




Forecast for Saturday night in College Park currently calls for a 60% chance of rain and tempatures around 63 degrees. We're getting close to the three day territory where forecasts get considerably more accurate.





September 30th, 2015 at 10:00 AM ^

Capital Weather Gang update (as of an hour ago):

9 a.m. Update: As of 8 a.m., Joaquin is now a hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph and expected to strengthen. Although many models have now converged on a Saturday night-Sunday landfall somewhere between North Carolina and New Jersey, last night’s European model (one of the most trusted) still has Joaquin staying out to sea. As described below, the D.C. area is in line for a serious rain threat Friday through Sunday regardless of the track of Joaquin. A direct hit on the mid-Atlantic, with extreme wind locally in addition to potentially flooding rain, is one possible scenario. We’ll have a full update later this morning.


September 30th, 2015 at 6:45 PM ^

The North American Model shows the Hurricane staying out to sea, well southeast of the mid Atlantic coast. However, the surface pressure gradient really increases Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as a surface ridge builds southward out of eastern Canada. Still looks windy, may be 20 to 30 MPH winds with gusts of 35 MPH out of the northeast and east.  Of course periods of rain but no Hurricane!


September 30th, 2015 at 10:18 AM ^

We have 2-4 great seats (Sec 4, Row W behind UM bench and near UM visitor tickets, but not stuck in the corner).  Looks like we might bail.  I have seats with my elderly parents and they have nixed the plans. 

Selling either 2 or 4 tickets.  Email if interested: [email protected]


September 30th, 2015 at 10:50 AM ^

I saw several people concerned about their flights to the game. If the forecast keeps trending towards a hurricane in the region the airlines will issue waivers allowing you to cancel and/or change your tickets at no cost. I would assume most major hotel chains will do the same.  This will likely become an option for you by tomorrow evening or Friday morning at the latest. 

I have no idea what they will do about game tickets but overall you should not take much if any of a financial hit if the game is canceled or the time is moved.


September 30th, 2015 at 11:43 AM ^

Latest model runs show her reaching major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) status.  Landfall Monday afternoonish (but she will have weakened to Cat 1).

If there is no increase in speed of the storm, the effects won't be felt until Sunday afternoon/evening.

However MD will still be water-logged from rain Thursday - Friday.


September 30th, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^

Note to all: Sandy

Sandy hit Oct 30, but the airports cancelled all flights Oct 29.…

If this keeps on present track, I expect that all Sunday flights will be cancelled in the area.

At state of emergency was declared the 26th. I assume this will happen again today or tomorrow. The governement and and all business will start shutting down in the area.

I wouldn't be suprised if the game was played earlier or postponed. 



September 30th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^

Play the game in AA and split the gate with Maryland, probably a better deal for them than holding the game there anyways.  Screws with everyone's travel plans though.