We will never be Bama....
And I don't want to be. I see a lot of commentary on here about how in a couple years Michigan will be at the level of Bama. We need to be realistic. There will come a day, hopefully in two or three years where we can compete with a team like Bama or LSU, but we will never be loaded with that much NFL talent. IE, maybe we will have like a 35-40% chance of beating them in a one game setting, but year in and year out, on average, the best SEC team will be better than the best Big Ten team.
As well as Hoke is recruiting, Bama is a football factory that serves as a preparatory school for the NFL. Don't want to sound like a bitter, sore loser cynic, but that is not the "student athlete" model we are going to pursue at Michigan. They oversign, bring in jucos, and pull in a top class of recruits every year with little worry about students having issues in the classroom, or giving out "medical redshirts" and cutting. Once a decade or so there is a team like Bama. There were the 80's Canes, 90's Seminoles, USC of the 2000's. There is something all these teams have in common...They are usually cutting corners in the classroom at best, and involved with a bunch of shadier off fields scandals at worst.
When your 3 deep reads like a future NFL roster, something smells a bit off. Take nothing away from Saban as a brilliant game day coach, motivator, program operator, recruiter, etc. But the man has straight up said he thinks college players should be paid (not a moral indictment in its own right) but there is also a lot of smoke and rumor around the program around that very issue.
OSU tried to go the NFL factory route under Tressel, and will probably do the same under Meyer, and we all saw how that turned out. Yet even when cheating, OSU was still getting blown up by SEC teams in national title games.
Point being, to those saying give Hoke a few years and we will be like Bama because OMG look at his first two recruiting classes, just realize this is probably an unrealistic hope. I expect us to get significantly better and win the Big 10 repeatedly, and maybe one year pull off an upset in a bowl or playoff for a magical year (like when OSU beat a much better Miami squad in 02). But to expect Michigan football to perennially be what Alabama is now is an unrealistic goal as, IMO, it would require a program character tranformation that Brady Hoke and Dave Brandon would be unwilling to undergo. As much as I love winning, I wouldn't want to go that route.
I expect us to get much, much better, more physical, and competitive under Hoke. Our teams will be bigger and able to compete with offensive and defensive lines like Alabama, LSU, USC. But the Alabama model is not one I would wish to pursue for my Wolverines.
I have to add this link in as an edit to my post just so all the self-righteous, "just take it on the chin" types understand the concept of smoke can mean fire. http://larrybrownsports.com/college-football/agent-ralph-cindrich-nick-saban-pay-for-play/148079
Again, my point is not that Alabama didn't kick our ass. It's also not that we are the greatest non-cheating team in the world, and only if everyone played fair we would win every game. The point is when teams get this good, as Alabama is now, and there is such a huge disparity between a couple top programs in the country and the rest of college football you would be a moron not to wonder what's up. And recent history tends to support such skepticism.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:29 PM ^
Aside from the factual elements of oversigning and JUCOS, the foundation of your point is based in innuendo and hearsay. You're not inside the walls, man. You don't know exactly how Alabama (or Michigan, for that matter) approach academics regarding their football players.
All that stuff aside, a bigger reason (in my opinion) for the disparity is that their main recruiting ground, the South, produces better football players than our main ground, the Midwest. And they have cleaned up that recruiting ground since Saban came in.
They're good. They got through good at least in part through old cliches like strong preparation and good fundamentals, which even their new starters played with last night. To demonize them and bring up the old "smell test" seems a bit petty in the wake of defeat.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:15 PM ^
I made it this far: "we will never be loaded with that much NFL talent" before logging in to neg you. How old are you?
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:19 PM ^
The reason we will never be Alabama is because the two programs have different goals. Michigan's goal is to win a Big Ten championship every year. Alabama's goal is to win a national championship every year. IMO the difference is huge.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:46 PM ^
So what is your argument? That Michigan didn't try as hard as Alabama did last night because it was a non-conference game?
I'm not sure how these media-professed "goals" have anything to do with how the team performs. Michigan supposedly had the goal being a Big Ten title in 1997 and they won a NC. Alabama may have been shooting for the NC in the Mike Shula era for all we know.
If you're good, you're good. If you're not, you're not.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:20 PM ^
I don't buy it. Sure theres disadvantages, but you can win the right way.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:25 PM ^
I don't want to be Bama, I want to be MICHIGAN, fergodsakes.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:25 PM ^
M can be like 1996 - 2006 Alabama no problem.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:26 PM ^
Michigan is looking to have a very similar offense in a couple years imo. A huge offensive line where we can line up and run the ball right at you, and control the clock. As well as a deep talented defense that swarms to the ball.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:28 PM ^
Spread > MANBALL
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:33 PM ^
It's hard for me to argue with this, but I think what people mean when they say that we'll be on the level of 'Bama is that we'll be among the truly elite in college football. We still won't be as good as 2011 or 2012 Alabama, but no one will. The SEC has finally banned oversigning, which won't allow scheisters like Saban to assemble such a loaded roster by signing and purging. He also won't be around at Alabama forever. People tend to forget that Alabama was a non-factor during most of the 90's and 00's under DuBose, Franchione, and Shula.
And aside from the ethical issues in the SEC, they have a lot of natural, built-in advantages down there that we'll never have. None of the football factory schools in the SEC are in the same universe as Michigan academically. Some of these schools take two or three JUCO transfers every year, whereas we've taken two in the last thirty years. Also, football is like a religion in the South, particularly in Alabama. That affects all aspects of their culture. They built a bronze statue of Saban after he had been there only three years. Every other elementary school in Western Alabama is named after Bear Bryant (in contrast, remember how people scoffed when someone suggested that Skyline High in Ann Arbor should be named after Bo?). All of the athletically-inclined kids are pushed toward football because football players are treated like gods. That, coupled with the massive population shift from the Midwest toward the South that has occurred over the last generation or so, is going to make it difficult for us to compete with the SEC year in and year out.
Here's my baseline: if we can pull off a '97-like season once every 20 years or so and consistently win 8-11 games in all of the seasons in between, then I think this program will have achieved to its potential. That '97 team will never be regarded as among the absolute best in the history of college football, like a '95 Nebraska or an '01 Miami, but the trophy says "National Champions" on it just the same.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:47 PM ^
Bama won the SEC in 1999 under DuBose and played Michigan to basically a stalemate in the Orange Bowl. Franchione won 10 games in 2002, won the SEC West, but was ineligible for the title game or a bowl due to probation. He left after that, his second season. Shula went 10-2 in 2005.
All of that while dealing with varying degrees of sanctions and probation that prevented any kind of continuity. They weren't a consistent beast, but the ceiling was still high, even with guys who aren't that highly thought of running the program.
September 2nd, 2012 at 3:08 PM ^
That's why I said "most". You've pointed out three seasons out of 20, none of which were as dominant as 'Bama '09, 'Bama '11, or (likely) 'Bama '12.
September 2nd, 2012 at 3:36 PM ^
They went 11-1 in '91 and finished at #5 in the country. Won the national title in '92 (blowing out Miami in the Sugar Bowl). In '93 and '94 they won the SEC west, finishing the latter season at 12-1 with a bowl win over OSU and a one point loss to Florida in the SEC title game as their only blemish. They finished #5 in the country that year as well. In '96 they were back in the conference title game, beat Michigan in a bowl game and finished #11 in the country. Then Stallings left and after two poor seasons they won the SEC again as I mentioned under Dubose.
If you want to go back further, they were really good when this guy they called the Bear was walking the sidelines too. This recent run is probably unsustainable for any program in the longterm, but Bama at full strength (no probation/sanctions) has always been strong, even in their recent "dark period".
September 2nd, 2012 at 3:29 PM ^
There are the ethical issues in the SEC (the only school that has never faced sanctions is Vanderbilt, as I recall), but there is also the money, and I believe it deserves some mention.
Something that much of the SEC has been able to do as well is convert the regional passion for the game into money. Only a handful of SEC school have endownments over $1 billion, but yet they can match and even exceed many other schools when it comes to athletic donations. In many cases, the donors didn't even attend the school, but are from that area and were fans. I think this is part of the reason that they can build facilities which are top-tier despite being in a less economically diverse (or endowed) part of the country, facilities which impress and attract top talent.
They also generated income from the rule that allows conferences to stage championship games, a rule basically ignored until the early 1990s when the SEC began playing such a game. They've had the deal with CBS since the 90s as well, I believe.
In short, they've found a way to more or less neutralize an advantage that northern schools (for example, schools in the Big Ten) had for a long time, and it has also helped schools like Alabama become a destination for players.
It will be a few years, I believe, before we see any effects from the ban on oversigning in the SEC, but it would be interesting all the same to do a multi-year statistical comparison on both sides of the ball to see where the productivity falters the most.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:37 PM ^
But I'm not confident in making any derogatory claims about Bama's team other than some (pretty well known) roster management tactics (cutting, medical redshirts, JUCO transfers). They're also not an academic institution of the calibur of our beloved Michigan, but few (if any) traditional power programs are.
But the biggest reason I don't want to be Bama is that the win appeared joyless. When you see video of our couching staff during the Nebraska game last year they're joking around with eachother, talking candidly, shrugging, that sorta thing. When you looked at Saban last night he was ice-cold focused when the score was already something like 35-7. Even at the end of the game he seemed unhappy and was still chewing people out at every penalty and Michigan 1st down. You don't want to be too joyful, out of respect, but comeon man...
September 2nd, 2012 at 3:57 PM ^
September 3rd, 2012 at 8:49 PM ^
Um, that's probably the reason they beat us 41-14 and LSU 21-0 and . . .
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:41 PM ^
I never want to be Bama. I want us to return to "The Old Michigan" and I feel like we are making strides to do so. I personally feel like it would be nice to see us line up in the "I" formation and try to pound the ball a little. I would like to see more of a power running game. I realize that the "big play" potential goes down if we do that, but I think that it would possibly lengthen the time of the drives and potentially wear the opposing defense down. Run Hopkins behind Kerridge and force teams to respect the fact that we are going to put drives together and score without Denard throwing a deep slant or taking it to the house when a play breaksdown. Just a thought.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:42 PM ^
Before people flip out... I am not saying hopkins should move to HB, I am merely suggesting that we inject a power run scheme into what we are doing. Mix it up.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:56 PM ^
running game for that entire game last night. Averaged about 2.0 yards a carry.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:44 PM ^
Disagreed. Our talent is nowhere close to where it will (hopefully) be with these recruiting class's. 'Bama's built off of talent. Our 2012 and 2013 class's are stockpiled with talent, more then the previous years. I think we can be an excellent team like 'Bama in 2/3 years. We're definetly not there, but come on... Everyone has KNOWN this is a rebuilding program. You look at the positions and you say "average big 10 starter" for a lot of them, not "future 1st rounder" like 'Bama. But there have been times where Michigan has had that talent. So its not at all a far stretch to see us reaching that talent level again. And Brady Hoke is a great coach and I believe we will be a great team, both talent wise and coaching wise. Just give it time. We're a good team this year. But not an excellent team this year like Alabama. This is what we expected. Rationally, did we really think we were going to beat Alabama this year? When it was first scheduled, we were just HOPING it'd be close. I believe it'll be a different story in time...
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:46 PM ^
I don't completely disagree. The one shining light, if you will, is that all of the teams you listed inevitably fell, and usually quite far, from their heights. Miami hasn't been anywhere close to the dominance they showed in the 80's save for that short run under Davis/Coker, and the same with FSU. USC looks to be back somewhat, but rest assured Kiffin will muff it up sooner rather than later.
Alabama has a great team, and Saban is a hell of a coach and recruiter. Those teams are strong, disciplined, and talented. Sure, that talent comes at a price other teams won't take on, but it's not like Bama would be a MAC team if they only recruiting 85 athletes every 4 years. They will be good for some time, but soon enough someone will mess up, Saban will get busted, and they'll be back on probation. It's the inevitable end for teams like Alabama, just like the end of Carr/RR eras were for a UM program that was too set in its ways to wholly evolve with college football.
I will say, though, that game was closer than it appeared, given what UM was missing. People kept harping on Alabama being without some stars, but UM lost its Remington-winning center, top two defensive linemen, and its stud RB. Those are big losses, and I definitely think they had an effect on the performance we saw. And despite all that, UM was hanging around. UM will be back, and while I have my doubts that they'll be playing for a title in 3 years, I do expect them to be competitive with every team on their schedule.
September 2nd, 2012 at 2:47 PM ^
... I would not overreact to one game.
Truth is, we had played Alabama three times previously and won twice.
Saban is a great coach. Combine great coaching, great tradition and the ability to make a team incredibly deep through oversigning, and you have a program on a roll.
But if -- and this is a big IF -- the NCAA really does crack down on roster manipulation (Stewart Mandel, for example, thinks the new rules will not stop oversigning), and as Hoke continues to recruit players head-to-head with Alabama (as in the Turly-Tillman and Dawson commits), we'll see things level out over the next few years.
Someone should run the numbers on this, but I'll bet the edge Alabama holds in the number of scholarships given out over the past four years, not to mention that Saban has been recruiting players to fit his system, which is more like the days of Bo.
I don't think we'll ever be Alabama in terms of how we go about things -- Michigan is a serious university, while Bama is your typical, average state school -- but I think we'll be able to compete with them in two years. There's nothing fancy about what they do. They get great recruits, they've been cutting recruits they missed on and replacing them with more recruits, and that just gives more talent to a great coach. They'll always get great recruits. If we can stop them from manipulating the rules to correct their misses, we can compete.
Indeed, if we can get everyone playing by the same rules, we have the coaching staff and recruiting power to return to beating Alabama again. The competitive edge brought by oversigning is depth, and we saw it last night. It is the reason Alabama can 'reload, not rebuild.' They've been stockpiling as much as they can get away with.
Remember, there were years before the SEC went on an oversigning rampage started by Saban at LSU (and then Alabama), along with Arkansas and South Carolina. And Michigan dominated the SEC in bowl games before the binge. And which SEC team was the first to ban oversigning? Florida, by the order of the school president. And looked what happened -- they started getting dominated in the SEC.
The SEC teams you see on the field really are better and much deeper. It's how they got that way that doesn't get any discussion on television.
September 2nd, 2012 at 3:04 PM ^
I get really sick of ppl saying that Alabama is a representation of Ess-Eee-See football as a whole. Alabama and LSU are on another level from the rest of their conference. If Michigan were playing, say, UGA's SEC Schedule, we could win the SEC East for the chance to get thrashed by Bama on a neutral field like we did last night (which UGA will probably do this season just as they did last year before getting trounced by LSU).
September 2nd, 2012 at 4:09 PM ^
This is true over the past to to three years. However, before the SEC championship game of 2009, the dominant program in that league for some time (excluding the Zook debacle) was Florida. It is cyclical. (Except for the obvious caveat, that like him or not-and I do not-as long as Saban is there, Bama will be strong.)
September 2nd, 2012 at 3:06 PM ^
There is comfort in saying "well, at least our team is of higher moral caliber." But, the truth is we had a couple players suspended for the game. We are not of immaculate sterling student athletes, nor is any team. We want to win, and we want to do it the right way. Most teams feel the same, just a matter of if they can.
September 2nd, 2012 at 3:16 PM ^
when ABC told the world that this team has had 6 arrests. I tried to explain to my family that number included things like breaking a parking lot gate and sliding over the hood of a car, but still. The world did not go away thinking that the Michigan team had higher moral character, whether it does or not.
September 2nd, 2012 at 8:45 PM ^
I am of the opinion we are never going to win a national title again. I fine with it, since we at Michigan are above the cheating that gets you to the BCS national title game.
September 2nd, 2012 at 3:29 PM ^
If you don't think Michigan can win a National Title or compete every few years for one, you are fools. Once the depth is addressed 2-3 years,this will happen.Some of you guys make me throw up sometimes.
Once we're able to throw the ball consistently to get the opposing D out of the box and then will loosen up the run, we will be more balanced and elite defense just can't sit in the box. We were easy to defend against Bama. Michigan will get enough elite players to compete for the National Title every few years maybe not every couple like Bama and LSU do right now.
September 2nd, 2012 at 3:52 PM ^
Its not the depth..... its the type of bigger player we need, and we are a year away until these types that Hoke recruited, begin to have an effect. We are two full years away from being Michigan again. And it'll be a young Michigan....
September 2nd, 2012 at 5:33 PM ^
September 2nd, 2012 at 3:55 PM ^
Yet we got RR and they didnt..... Saban is doing a fine job hogging the talent, he truly is... .but it was only a moment ago when we were ahead of them, and had equal NFL talent. Pre-Saban wasn't anything special like it is now.
September 2nd, 2012 at 4:14 PM ^
September 2nd, 2012 at 5:07 PM ^
September 2nd, 2012 at 5:10 PM ^
Bather.
Here is the last decade of Alabama football:
7-5
10-3
4-9
6-6
0-2 (vacated)
0-7 (vacated)
2-6
12-2
14-0
10-3
12-1
Michigan has been much more consistant. So Alabama is really good now - who is to say what they will be 5 years from now?
Who is to say Michigan won't be national champs in 5 years?
All I know is when people throw around terms like unbeatable, dynasty etc the mighty usually fall.
September 2nd, 2012 at 5:28 PM ^
September 2nd, 2012 at 5:55 PM ^
Michigan is old sexy.
September 2nd, 2012 at 5:16 PM ^
September 2nd, 2012 at 7:11 PM ^
September 2nd, 2012 at 7:13 PM ^
I'm sure Alabama said the same thing about us at one time. Historically speaking, no team has a monopoly on football. As much as I hate to admit it, Nick Saban is an extraordinary coach. But, he will not coach forever and the power among conferences and schools will shift. They always do. Fortunately, the SEC and ESPN don't understand that and their contract destiny will experience a plunge in fortune simultaneously.
September 2nd, 2012 at 7:24 PM ^
September 3rd, 2012 at 8:52 AM ^