Way Too Specific Predictions: 2014 (with historical references)

Submitted by 1464 on August 21st, 2014 at 4:18 PM

This will be the third year in a row that I make my OFFICIAL WAY TOO SPECIFIC PREDICTION thread.  The previous versions are linked at the bottom.  So please, if you want to look stupid next offseason, and only care to post in ONE MORE prediction thread, make it this one.  And please, no cushy ranges.  

"I predict that we'll go between 15-0 and 7-6.  Prove me wrong."

That is terrible, and you are doing this wrong.  Give me an exact total.  While you are at it, give me other totals.  Other facts that we can glean at the start of the 2015 season.  Will Funchess get the Braylon dropsies?  Will he sprout a third arm and catch everything?  Does Shane start at any point, and why?  Does our offensive line congeal?  Over/under on sleeved days for Brady Hoke: 2.5.  Headsetted days: 4.5.  How about the B1G East?  Are we in a ridiculously good division?  PSU?  OSU? MSU? Maryland?  Yada yada yada...

Our winner from 2012, Logan88, was again dead on with this opinion:

No, I too am not nearly as high on NWestern as the media. Their schedule next year is much more difficult than it was last season. I know that they are returning a lot of good players and I think they will do their usual job of scaring the sh&t out of just about every team they play but for all of that they will still finish no better than 8-4 in the regular season IMO.

Last year, Logan's worst case scenario sans the bowl came true, as his floor was set at 7-5.  I anxiously await his verdict on this season... hopefully there is no mention of 26 of anything for -26 of another thing.

The person with the best prognostication from last year?  Not THE KNOWLEDGE.  I think that guy is dead.  Actually, nobody was pessimistic enough to be correct, so I am awarding the 2013 win to Wolfman, for this:

I predict Al Borges will not be retained for the 2014 season. 

I'll admit that I was still on Team Borges at the beginning of the year.  I will post my thoughts below.  Meanwhile, please peruse the previous two WAY TOO SPECIFIC PREDICTION threads.

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/way-too-specific-predictions-football-2013

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/way-too-specific-predictions-2012

 

ALSO!

Because I want to get as many predictions as possible, and because I know you people are tired of these threads and just want football to start, if you post in this thread, feel free to print out the image located below and display it proudly somewhere by your desk.  It will make you feel good about yourself, and will make others gravitate towards you.

Comments

itsbigcat

August 21st, 2014 at 4:23 PM ^

11-1. One loss: Sparty.
Big time bowl win.
Gardner finally gets it.
Our offense finally implements Funchess like the Megatron he is.
Michigan finishes #11 in final poll.
We drink some, no, a lot.


Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Victor Hale II

August 21st, 2014 at 4:28 PM ^

By the middle of the season, everyone in the nation will know Funchess is getting a fade or a post-up type of pass when UM is inside the enemy's (yeah that's right) 10 yard line, but Nuss will still call it and Funch will still haul it in for 6.

acnumber1

August 21st, 2014 at 7:44 PM ^

2013 version:

2nd game, vs ND.

3rd play was 

2nd and 3 at ND 32 Tommy Rees pass incomplete to TJ Jones.

3rd play from scrimmage was 

3rd and 3 at ND 32 Amir Carlisle rush for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 31.

3rd offensive play for U of M was 

3rd and 2 at MICH 40 Devin Gardner pass complete to Drew Dileo for 6 yards to the Mich 46 for a 1ST down.

3rd play of Michigan's second drive was 

1st and 10 at MICH 39 Devin Gardner pass complete to Jeremy Gallon for 61 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.

All positive as far as I'm concerned (except probably the formatting, but we are deep enough into the thread for that not to matter...)

1464

August 21st, 2014 at 4:29 PM ^

My prediction is that we go 11-3.

Beat ND.  Beat one of MSU or OSU.  We will also lose to a B1G team that we shouldn't.  Possibly PSU or Maryland.  Due to the tiebreakers and whatnot, we pretty handily beat whichever poser makes it out of the west in the BTCG.  At 11-2, we get into a bowl game against a much more capable opponent, likely the one team that feels like they were jobbed out of the fist ever FBS playoffs.  They end up beating us by double digits.

OSU - 3 losses, one against VT.  MSU - 3 losses, one against Oregon.  ND - 6 losses.

Darboh is the player we are most excited about in 2015 on offense.  Peppers, obviously, on defense.

Morris completes between 20-40 passes on the year.

Offensive line is passable, but not beautiful.  Cole and Peppers are already anticipated to be top 10 draft picks once the get 3 years in.

Tater

August 21st, 2014 at 4:29 PM ^

11-1 with one loss: in Evanston.  Victory in Big Ten Championship Game and spot in National Playoff.

Maize-colored glasses? You bet.  And it's a great view from here...

BeileinBuddy

August 21st, 2014 at 4:31 PM ^

Michigan secondary will limit Stefon Diggs to just 3 recs for under 40 yards. Basing it on our athletic corners, aggressive D scheme, and frigid late-November weather. 

Larry Appleton

August 21st, 2014 at 4:43 PM ^

That record does seem to be a bit archaic, if that's the right word.  It seems like a record that should have been broken 25 years ago.

Kind of like when Roundtree became the first Michigan player with over 200 yards receiving in a game against Illinois in 2010.  It seemed kind of odd that it took that long.

Tuebor

August 21st, 2014 at 5:01 PM ^

It is my favorite record because every major Michigan QB going back to Steve Smith in 1983 is tied at 4.  My Dad thinks that once a QB got to 4 passing TDs Lloyd would get really conservative to prevent the record from being broken.  I just think that back in Lloyd's day if a QB had 4 passing TDs the game was probably a blowout and either a backup came in or we just ran out the clock on the ground.

mGrowOld

August 21st, 2014 at 4:43 PM ^

10-3 with a win over one of the "big three" but a frustrating and unexplainable last second loss at home to somebody we should've beat.  Offensive line starts shaky but slowly and steadily improves throughout season till at the end we're not discussing it anymore.  Running back remains unsettled with all three players showing flashes of brilliance but nobody hammering the job home.  Gardner will get knocked out of a game at some point with an injury and Morris will play well in relief and will start (and win) the following week before Gardner returns.  Mini QB controversy ensues but is quickly put out when Gardner has best game of year his first game back.  Finish second in the east to either OSU or MSU but win New Year's bowl game over upper tier SEC school like Georgia or Auburn and finish season in top 10.

Upside to 12-1

Downside to 9-4

michiganman01

August 21st, 2014 at 4:43 PM ^

11-1 lone loss to MSU

Gardner averages 250 passing 50 rushing 35 total TD's

Rushing game other than Devin averages 3.5 ypc

Defense (the reason i predict the 11 wins) allows 14-17 ppg and 340-360 ypg.

Finish 2nd in the East get into one of the 4 non playoff, CFP games

 

Erik_in_Dayton

August 21st, 2014 at 4:45 PM ^

Record: 8-4

Record against the rivals:  1-2

All of Michigan's losses are close.

The defense is very good but not good enough to win games on their own.

Smith gets the majority of carries and yards among the RBs.  DG still leads the team in rushing.

The OL starts off as seal pups being clubbed to death but work their way up to not quite middling.

Peppers returns an interception for a TD in one of the first four games.

A ferret runs onto the field during the Indiana game.  He is wearing a vest, but he is not anyone's pet. 

Rutgers and Maryland both prove to be annoyingly tough games. 

Space Coyote becomes exhausted from defending Funk. 

Hagerup excels.  Wile struggles a bit on FGs. 

The season ends with most of us optimistic for 2015. 

The offseason:  We laugh.  We cry.  We are born again in a fast German car.

 

 

allintime23

August 21st, 2014 at 4:43 PM ^

I predict that Hokes only chance of forgiveness comes down to the Ohio State game. After losses at EL and ND and a few close calls in games we should win handedly it all comes down to the game. We win! It's close but we go into that shoe of hate and walk out with a victory. Hoke returns for another year.

maize-blue

August 21st, 2014 at 4:48 PM ^

After an early season close loss to Notre Dame, the Wolverines roll off five straight wins and head into the bye week at 6-1. This sets up a key matchup with Michigan State, also 6-1 after an embarrassing 41-20 thumping at Oregon in their second game. Michigan plays their best game of the season to date and walks out of East Lansing with a 28-20 victory.

Michigan starts very sluggish the next week against Indiana and actually has to come from behind in the second half to get the win. They go on to win the next two games and head to Columbus at 10-1.

Ohio State comes into the matchup at 11-0, having only played one tough team all season. From the beginning, it’s clear Michigan’s offensive line has developed, matured, and come a long way from the beginning of the season. Derrick Green rushes for 105 yards while De’Veon Smith adds 57. Michigan’s defense is suffocating and UM gets the win, 38-17.

Gentleman Squirrels

August 21st, 2014 at 4:58 PM ^

Michigan goes 12-2, figures out o-line issues sometime around the Utah game, but loses to MSU. Beats ND handily and eeks out a tough, but never really a contest victory against OSU (sorta like ND 2013). Beats Wisconsin in the Big ten championship by having a field day throwing the ball. We grab the fourth playoff spot, but lose out to some SEC team. (Damn you SEC *shakes fist angrily*)

Artichokes Anonymous

August 21st, 2014 at 5:01 PM ^

I think the defens turns elite and leads the B1G in points and yards allowed/game, single-handedly winning a few games early (also thanks to Hagerup).

Michigan finishes 10-2 with a close loss at ND and another blowout at MSU. A thrilling win in Columbus leaves fans eager for 2015.

Go.Blue.Hail

August 21st, 2014 at 10:03 PM ^

Michigan holds OSU to 17 points after Frank Clark knocks out JT Barrett forcing Cardale "ain't come to play school" Jones into the game. Jones proceeds to throw 2 INT's in the second half sealing the fate of the Bucks.

Michigan: 27

Ohio: 17

Leonhall

August 21st, 2014 at 5:14 PM ^

I'll say we win 11 games including a win in Lansing and Columbus. I think we drop a close one in South Bend and hokes seat gets warm until he win in East Lansing on a last second Vince youngesque scramble vs USC into the spartan end zone; 27-23. In Columbus we win 38-35 on a last second fg by wile....GO BLUE!


Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Trebor

August 21st, 2014 at 5:14 PM ^

Ugh, I predicted 9-4 last year, and comfortable wins over UConn and Akron. I did nail Gallon as 2nd in receiving in the conference behind Robinson (not that it was a difficult prognostication). Got reasonably close on Gardner going 3000 yards, 29 TDs, 13 INTs, 350 rushing, 8 TDs (he was 2960/21/11/483/11). Everything else was trash.

This year:

Nussmeier is good, certainly an upgrade over Borges, but not the godsend we are all hoping for. A simplified gameplan, and week-to-week consistency help everyone out, but the OL still has too many issues for this to be anything but an average-at-best offense.

Gardner is 2nd team All-B1G, finishing with 3100 yards passing and a 30/10 TD/INT split,and tacks on 400 rushing yards and 10 TDs.

Green and Smith split the vast majority of carries. Neither looks great, but both are serviceable. Green has 600 yards and 7 TDs (4.1 per carry), Smith has 500 yards and 5 TDs (4.2 per carry).

Funchess is a world beater. Despite drawing double (and occasionally triple) coverage on a routine basis, he is B1G WR of the year, bringing in 95 catches for 1450 yards and 13 TDs. Darboh uses those silly forearm muscles to take advantage of the single coverage offered by having Funchess opposite, making 45 catches for 700 yards and 6 TDs.

The OL is still bad, but they improve on a week-to-week basis, giving some hope for competency in 2015.

The defense plays well, but disappoints due to the sky-high expectations of the fan base. Clark leads the DL by registering 6.5 sacks. Ryan is back to his sophomore doom-bringing days, and brings nothing but chaos from the MLB spot, ending with 110 tackles, 15 for loss, and 5.5 sacks.

The secondary is the disappointment. Peppers plays well, but people cool down a bit on the Woodson comparisons for the time being. Countess ends up being the true #1 corner this year, with Lewis and Taylor splitting duties on the other side as neither separates himself. Wilson is fine at the free spot, but hopes of having an impact from the strong spot are dashed as both Thomas and Clark play, but are liabilities.

Wile and Hagerup are both solid; both contend for All-B1G honors at their positions. Norfleet and Peppers split the KR duties, but neither break one. Peppers has the higher return average. Norfleet returns punts, and does get a return TD there.

Schedule wise - Michigan takes advantage of a fairly weak schedule, and starts 6-0. Though the record is good, there are obvious red flags on the team, especially off uncomfortable wins over Minnesota and Rutgers to start the conference season. Penn State, emotionally charged in their first big test of the Franklin regime, spoil the night for the 105k Michigan fans in attendance. The bye week comes at a good time, as a number of guys are dinged up. Unfortunately this doesn't help in East Lansing, as the Spartans continue their run of success in the series.

Without Tre Roberson to threaten the defense with his legs, the Indiana game gets easier, especially since they still do not possess a defense. Northwestern struggles to replace Colter's production, and doesn't find a true replacement for Mark. Both games are reasonably comfortable wins for the good guys. Maryland's array of receivers is a struggle to contain, and Michigan gets caught looking ahead to Columbus. Diggs pulls his best Lockett impression to get the upset. Barrett has struggles early on in the season, but by the middle of November he's comfortable with the playbook and reminds viewers of the junior version of Troy Smith. The OSU DL abuses the still middling OL, and though the rest of the OSU defense is still full of issues, Columbus celebrates yet another victory. Michigan ends up 8-4 in the regular season, and ends up in the Gator Bowl. They play Texas A&M, and win the game as Gardner refuses to go out on a bad note. Final record of 9-4, Hoke gets another year, and we all prep for life after dual-threat QBs.