Wash/Clem money line parlay is -150

Submitted by llandson on

If either team loses, I think Michigan is in. If both teams win, bet pays off. Is this an unwise bet to make? 

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Bb011

December 1st, 2016 at 12:23 PM ^

Michigan may not be in, but they definitely have a shot if that happens. Maybe add Wisconsin winning into the parlay, because I truly think if Penn State wins our shot of getting in goes up a lot compared to if wisconsin wins purely due to our H2H thrashing we gave Penn State. 

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MGoCombs

December 1st, 2016 at 12:33 PM ^

In this scenario, you need both teams to win. Not against the spread, just win, which is why he specified money line. So, a $100 bet would yield $166 or $66 net winnings. 

Edit: Bad math. As others said, easier to imagine the betting amount as the +/-#, so $150 would yield 100. 100 would yield 66.

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UofM626

December 1st, 2016 at 12:34 PM ^

150 money line means, that in order to win $100 dollars you have to bet $150 dollars. If the money line was +150 then you would only have to bet $100 to win $150. Another tidbit is when you bet the money line there are no point spreads, its just a win loss pick.

So there's basically saying that both Clemson and Washington are favored in each of the games with one of the two games closer then the other. If they were both clear cut knock out favorites the money line would be -300 and above easily.

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MGoCombs

December 1st, 2016 at 12:37 PM ^

This also, if my mathing is correct, places the odds of either/both teams losing at ~40%. If we truly believe the BTCG doesn't matter and we just need either to fall, we're looking at a 40/60 shot. Not that bad!

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uofmchris

December 1st, 2016 at 12:46 PM ^

The ONLY teams we legitimately need to worry about jumping Michigan would be either Penn St. or Wisconsin.

Hell, ESPN is already running promo's for the Pac12 Championship game that say "Can Colorado reach the Rose Bowl with a win over Washington?"

My one and only concern would be the committee ''saving face'' by putting the B1G Champion in the dance. Would they want to deal with all of the backlash putting in 2 B1G teams who didn't even play in the championship game.

That is what scares me the most.

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The Maizer

December 1st, 2016 at 12:58 PM ^

I don't understand the optimism about UM getting in with a Clemson or Washington loss. I'm wondering if it's some echo chamber feedback loop. I just expect Penn State or Wisconsin to jump us as conference champions. And even if Clemson and Washington both losing, it's hard to trust the committee to put in three B1G teams.

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Alton

December 1st, 2016 at 1:05 PM ^

In my opinion, it really matters whether we are talking about Penn State or Wisconsin.

If Wisconsin wins, I think they pass us.  It will be close, but I think they do.  If Penn State wins, that September blowout would be too much for the committee to overcome in their mind, and Michigan stays ahead of Penn State.

For me at least, contemplating the possibility of rooting for Penn State is...difficult.  But it might really come down to having to do that on Saturday night if Clemson or Washington have lost.

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llandson

December 1st, 2016 at 1:06 PM ^

You may very well be right. My gut is that the committee says that it doesn't consider margin of victory to deter teams from running up scores, however by saying that Michigan's loss to OSU was "impressive," it sounds to me like it does differentiate between various types of losses.

Also, by saying that Michigan is behind Wash by a razor-thin margin, I believe the committee is signaling that it sees some separation between Michigan and the teams it beat, just behind them.  

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uofmchris

December 1st, 2016 at 2:11 PM ^

They wouldn't put 3 B1G teams in if both Clemson and Washington lose.

It still all boils down to: B1G Champion or a team who beat both teams playing in the B1G Championship.

In that scenerio it would be: Alabama, Ohio, Colorado and insert B1G team.

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George Pickett

December 1st, 2016 at 12:53 PM ^

The old hedge. A bookmaker's dream. I thought about doing this last weekend, but I couldn't bring myself to bet on OSU.

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BoFan

December 1st, 2016 at 2:04 PM ^

I agree that it's close. And what it will come down to is how the committee compares Wisconsin, with a conference championship and only two early season very close loses to OSU and Michigan, to a Michigan team that beat Wisconsin (close game by score because of three missed field goals) but has lost two of the last three (in overtime and on last second field goal). The safe bet is that Wisconsin has to lose or at least a very close game. I know I'm rooting for Colorado and PSU because then Michigan will have a resume with two dominating wins over both conference champions. I'm also hoping Clemson loses but that is a longer shot. I think Clemson is way over rated based on all their close games to poor competition.

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llandson

December 1st, 2016 at 2:12 PM ^

I think it's highly unfair to differentiate between early-season losses vs. late-season losses. Why should Wisconsin be rewarded for scheduling Ohio State early, when we are forced to play them last every year. I have to believe the committee appreciates this. 

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Perkis-Size Me

December 1st, 2016 at 1:50 PM ^

You're probably right, but I'm not so sure. That head to head win where our defense just flat out DOMINATED Wisconsin should resonate with the committee. That game wasn't as close as the score suggested.  

If Washington loses, we're going to find out very quickly what the commitee values more: conference championships, or who is the actual better team. 

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Don

December 1st, 2016 at 1:16 PM ^

I fully expect us to be knocked out of the playoffs in the most agonizingly painful way possible.

Like Colorado being up 5 pts with five seconds left and Washington hurls a pass 60 yards into the end zone that bounces off the hands of four CU defenders and then settles gently into the paws of a Husky lying prone on the turf.

Then in the nightcap, VA Tech lines up for a game-winning FG with one second left, and the long snapper shanks the snap off the head of the kicker and Clemson celebrates its second playoff appearance in a row.

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