Vegas wiseguy on UM/UT

Submitted by Yinka Double Dare on March 15th, 2011 at 2:25 PM

ESPN's betting blog has weighed in on a couple of the regionals, and assigned Vegas wiseguy Alan Boston to our regional.  He likes us straight up and against the spread.

Money quotes:

This is a classic tourney game that, in the old days, you would drool over. It's the not-so-smart Vols team vs. the ultra-smart Michigan team.

I think Michigan is going to win the game because smarts can beat athleticism in the NCAA tourney. It wouldn't surprise me if Michigan runs them out of the gym.


Yinka Double Dare

March 15th, 2011 at 3:40 PM ^

As has been noted in other threads on guys who had mentioned our 1-3-1 zone, if there was a game where we were going to break that out again this is one of them.  I'll be shocked if our guys aren't playing a heavy dose of the 2-3 zone in this one too.  They'll play some man, of course, since it's been the base defense, but zoning up to force them into jumpers when they're one of the worst 3pt% teams in the country seems like a no-brainer.  I expect once we get into zone we'll stay there unless it's causing us to get murdered on the glass and leading to too many easy putbacks.


March 15th, 2011 at 3:19 PM ^

Over on UMHOOPS, Dylan has a post up with quotes from the UT starters. They are genuinely concerned about being able to defend because the scout team was owning them as they were installing the UM offense.

They also were excited about Tobias on Novak. They are underestimating the kid's grit and toughness.


March 15th, 2011 at 5:22 PM ^

I calcualted it out today and during Michigans last 13 games (since at MSU) we have beat Ken Pomeroy's projected score by an aggregate 78 points.

Which is +6 per game better than the projection.

Millman does something similar with his Sweat Barometer which uses the actual vegas line (MSU has been last all year in this metric).

Michigan has been crushing lines all year, even more so by Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency system because those rankings don't contain a recent performance adjustment like a true vegas power rating.

Kenpom has us favored by 2 and Vegas has us dogs by 1... but its entirely possible that the line should be more like Michigan by 5.

Reasonable concerns about game location and team motivation (Tennesse might actually play to their talent) can be raised, but even by advanced metrics lately Michigan has been undervalued.


March 15th, 2011 at 6:45 PM ^

Doesn't "wiseguy" usually refer to someone in the Mafia? When I first saw the post title, I thought it might have been something about point-shaving allegations from a mob guy who talked to the FBI or something.