Vegas Says: Iowa a Better Bet to Win B1G Than Michigan

Submitted by boliver46 on June 20th, 2014 at 5:03 PM

I know we've had a rough couple years (decade), but this?

After opening at 10/1 to win the Big Ten Championship Game, the Hawkeyes are down to 3/1 favorites. That puts Iowa tied for fourth-favorites with Nebraska behind Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State. While the line only jumped Iowa over Michigan – who is still at 5/1 – it's the biggest move for a non-longshot in any of the four conferences with a championship game.

I wonder at the big swing in odds - what does Vegas know that we don't?  And...Iowa better bet to win B1G than Michigan???  Does punting score points now?

F* that. 

Link

Comments

bdsisme

June 20th, 2014 at 5:05 PM ^

It's because Iowa is in the West division.  Their competition to get to the B1G Championship is Wiscy and Nebraska, while our competition is OSU and MSU.

boliver46

June 20th, 2014 at 5:09 PM ^

on weaker West, but still...although not B1G, ISU always gives them fits (who are we kidding, so does Northern Iowa) - so I see a demoralizing NC open to their season.  

At Maryland isn't a cakewalk, and they finish the season with Wisky and Nebraska (albeit at home).

2014-2015 SCHEDULE
Overall

0-0
Conf.

0-0
Home

0-0
Away

0-0
 
 
Date Opponent / Event Location Time / Result
08/30/14 vs. Northern Iowa Iowa City, IA TBA
09/06/14 vs. Ball State Iowa City, IA TBA
09/13/14 vs. Iowa State (Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series) Iowa City, IA TBA
09/20/14 at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA TBA
09/27/14 at Purdue * West Lafayette, IN 11:00 AM
10/11/14 vs. Indiana (Homecoming) * Iowa City, IA 11:00 AM
10/18/14 at Maryland * College Park, MD 11:00 AM
11/01/14 vs. Northwestern (Family Weekend) * Iowa City, IA TBA
11/08/14 at Minnesota * Minneapolis, MN TBA
11/15/14 at Illinois Champaign, IL TBA
11/22/14 vs. Wisconsin * Iowa City, IA TBA
11/28/14 vs. Nebraska (Hy-Vee Heroes Game) * Iowa City, IA TBA

 

m1jjb00

June 20th, 2014 at 8:50 PM ^

Iowa, however, has a taylor-made schedule with all 3 of the main threats to the division title coming to Iowa City.  Michigan has to go to Columbus and East Lansing.  Life is unfair, but you probably already knew that.

Wolverine Devotee

June 20th, 2014 at 5:06 PM ^

The odds makers do realize that Iowa has to play a team from the East division in the championship game, right?

They could win their division. That division is a joke. 

jdon

June 20th, 2014 at 5:44 PM ^

see, I love Iowa at 10-1.

you put 200 on them... hope they get to the league championship game and if they do you put 900 on their opponent and basically you are getting 5-1 odds just to get to the championship game, which i think is decent odds for them.

now, at 3-1, to hell with those odds.

jdon

 

alum96

June 20th, 2014 at 5:14 PM ^

They have a very easy schedule , they could be the worse 10-2 team in CFB.  Both their very tough games are at home.  They could be 10-0 going into those games or 8-2 at worse.

Mr Miggle

June 20th, 2014 at 5:15 PM ^

Bet on a single game against the spread and it's 110 to win 100, about a 5% edge for the house.

Bet on season totals and they keep your money for months and the house edge is enormous. 3/1 equates to a 25% probability. Iowa and Nebraska alone add up to 50%. Throw in 16% for Michigan and you can see they're on track to pay out around 50% of the take.

1927

June 20th, 2014 at 6:33 PM ^

Gun to my head and I'm picking who has a better shot to win the B1G....I'm picking Iowa. Our OL just will not be very good this year, and while I think the defense will be decent, it certainly isn't going to be a "shut-down" like MSU type defense. We'll probably win 7....maybeeeee 8, but Iowa has a better shot at winning it than we do.

King Douche Ornery

June 22nd, 2014 at 10:32 AM ^

I downvote anyone who pretends to be a UM graduate on the internets (which is pretty much anyone who advertizes a dgeree from UM as a credibility grab).

 

ut you have ingited the little boys alert here. Say anything negative, and the little boys cry and call you an MSU fan.

BlueKoj

June 20th, 2014 at 6:42 PM ^

Missing UM, OH, MSU and PSU is a joke. The only thing not easy about their schedule is back to back vs NE and WI. Still they're at Kinnick. This is as cake as it'll ever get for them they'd best win the west or its an opportunity lost.

I Like Burgers

June 21st, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^

Would be like if, I don't know...Arkansas or someone went through an SEC season without having to play Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, or Texas A&M.  When Iowa is 9-1 or 10-0 heading into those last two games, it'll be an interesting test of the new CFB committee to see where they seed them.  If they are 10-0 and they are slotted in the top 4, that's a bad sign for the future of the playoff.

Perkis-Size Me

June 20th, 2014 at 6:53 PM ^

Considering their very easy schedule (they miss us, OSU and MSU if I'm not mistaken), this doesn't surprise me. Also, considering how bad we were last year, I don't feel too insulted with Iowa being picked over us. They hung tough against a good LSU team in the Outback Bowl, while we got manhandled by a very, very meh KSU team.

Blue from Ohio

June 20th, 2014 at 6:59 PM ^

Yeah, I'm as diehard of a Michigan fan as anyone but that schedule is seriously cake. Wisconsin and Nebraska being your two toughest games doesn't seem as daunting as playing MSU, OSU, etc.  Take also that both are at home and that Nebraska and Wisconsin both lost key pieces to graduation / NFL, Iowa easily has a better chance to win B1G than we do.

LSAClassOf2000

June 20th, 2014 at 7:17 PM ^

Mind you, this is all based on previous data, so take it for what it is worth, but here is Massey's rough initial estimate of Iowa's projected win probability and score for each game. It is a little more optimistic than our initial estimates would look, as you might guess.

Opponent Result PF PA
Northern Iowa

 
89%

 
28 10
Ball St

 
83%

 
34 20
Iowa St

 
71%

 
28 21
at Pittsburgh

 
59%

 
23 20
at Purdue

 
88%

 
31 14
Indiana

 
69%

 
35 28
at Maryland

 
69%

 
24 17
Northwestern

 
69%

 
24 17
at Minnesota

 
55%

 
20 17
at Illinois

 
74%

 
30 21
Wisconsin

 
39%

 
17 21
Nebraska

 
59%

 
24 21

 

UMgradMSUdad

June 20th, 2014 at 11:48 PM ^

Perhaps not that surprising, but the odds have nothing to do with Michigan vs Iowa either this year or any previous years.  As others have pointed out, this has to do with the schedules, and if the teams were to switch schedules, the odds would change as well. This isn't a function of Iowa being better (or worse) than Michigan, it's a function of Iowa's chances against their schedule being better than Michigan's chances against its schedule.

Sparty123

June 21st, 2014 at 11:46 PM ^

Given the large alumni/fan base, Vegas will set the line "expensive" knowing that a lot of people will bet on UM almost regardless of the odds.  As such, UMs odds may be a bit overstated at 5/1.  People betting to actually try and win money probably saw Iowa at 10/1, looked at the easy division and schedule and thought "hey, why not"?  So a bunch of money went into the Hawkeyes and it basically forced Vegas to move the line.

None of this has anything to do with Vegas' opinion of who is more or less likely to win the B1GCG.

MGoSoftball

June 22nd, 2014 at 2:10 PM ^

Michigan fans are very loyal.  Carr was significantly less than 50% in covering the spread.  Vegas adjusts the line based on how people are betting.  There were several times where I took the opponent and the points against a rabid Michigan Fan.  I still rooted for my team to win, and I made some money along the way...classic win-win.

I would like to see the data for the past 25 years.  What percentage of games did we cover (or not cover) the spread?  My guess is about 35-40% but that is just a guess.  I dont have time to crunch this data.  I am working on another data collection project currently.

NOLA Wolverine

June 21st, 2014 at 12:23 AM ^

Did Iowa not beat us just last year? A year that ended with K State beating the stuffing out of Michigan in the BWW Bowl and two tackles being drafted in the NFL off of the worst Michigan line in the history of television? 

uminks

June 21st, 2014 at 3:01 AM ^

I think we will have a chance in 2015 but due to our new starting QB, I think we could lose out. 2016 will have tough road games at OSU and MSU. I see us wining the B1G in 2017!  Would that be too long to keep coach Hoke? I think if he's competitive in games and we win at least 9 games a year starting in 2015, Hoke should still be the coach.

Wolfman

June 22nd, 2014 at 9:58 AM ^

it only stands to reason, given respective sos, venues of games deemed most important, i.e., our two biggies in enemy territory, our recent struggles vs. well everyone, IA's mini run vs. us, our three consecutive years of winning fewer games each campaign, and I don't find this much of a stretch at all.  Although I don't believe three loses should have been close, and we should have had it in the W column by the end of 3rd quarter, it is a fact the total of the loses combines to a very low number and an argument could be made such losses are results of teams still trying to find ways to win games and is normally indicative of inexperience. I hope such is the case and this three year streak of losing more than the previous year is halted and Brady, in Schembechler like fashion, steam rolls not only our ooc competition but continues as the season progresses and makes his argument for a long term contract.

I know he has erred in having team prepped and there have been questionable field time positions. However, there is, as with players, a learning curve for coaches, look no further than Carr, and with each passing year they, too, improve.  I like him as a man. He is respected by parents all across the nation and the only thing it appears to date blocking him from hauling in a no. 1-5 recruiting class on an annual basis is our on-field failures.  Not if, but when it is corrected, I hope it's this man for both sake of continuity and reasons stated above.