Vegas: Michigan Underdogs vs. Louisville

Submitted by Michiganguy19 on April 7th, 2013 at 12:05 PM

Looks like the line opened at Michigan +3.5 and has moved overnight to Michigan +4 (Moneyline is Michigan +155/+165 depending on the sites).

Kenpom has Louisville, at a 5pt favorite.

ESPN pickcenter has some data up as well... with Michigan an underdog according to several of their statistical models.


Michigan is 20-16-1 vs. the Spread this year... Michigan is 5-0 vs. the Spread so far in the NCAA Tournament.




April 7th, 2013 at 12:16 PM ^

This team is so different from what all the season stats and rankings say because of McGary.  He totally changes the team by putting a 5th scorer on the floor for most of the game and his defensive hustle.  Not surprising they've beaten the spread 5 times so far.


April 7th, 2013 at 12:20 PM ^

I never "pick" or bet pre-game but I have no issue with this. They have great guards, bigs that are physical and can shoot and are generally (IMHO) have been the best/most consistent team in the country all year. Yet, if we show up it should be a very good game.


April 7th, 2013 at 12:43 PM ^

this doesn't mean much.  those spreads mean that vegas is guessing that louisville would win approximately 55-58% of hypothetical matchups.  they're not a huge favorite.


April 7th, 2013 at 2:21 PM ^


The spread means that Vegas thinks that they can get 50% of the people to bet on Louisville and 50% of the people to bet on Michigan if they make Louisville a 5 point favorite.  Nothing more.  It does not mean who they think is going to win.  They set the line to entice bettors, not to predict the future.

With so many people having only Louisville left in their brackets, i'm surprised the line is not higher.

True Blue Grit

April 7th, 2013 at 12:56 PM ^

From what I saw yesterday, Michigan is the better team - more disciplined, more momentum, good matchups against Louisville, and the best player in college basketball.  Go Blue!


April 7th, 2013 at 1:13 PM ^

Vegas spreads are NOT based on what they think the margin will be, but where the money will go.  They don't want the money 50/50 on each side.  Spread moves when money comes in heavy on one side.

So, the money, and most of the media, continue to underestimate us.



April 7th, 2013 at 1:44 PM ^

The "us against the world/no respect" angle always helps.  The underdog goes in with a perception of less to lose than the favorite.

I can fully understand the bettors putting more money on Louisville, too.  Anyone who hasn't followed Michigan sees a team that started out great, took a relative dive at the end of the regular season, and has squeaked out a bunch of games in the Tournament.  Meanwhile, Louisville has been seen as close to a prohibitive favorite since the Tournament began.  

I think the difference will be that Louisville is struggling to hold on to their position, while Michigan has been clawing their way up, and improving on a game to game basis.  Michigan pretty much won last night while nobody really had his shot falling from the perimeter.  Hardaway, Burke, and Stauskas went a combined 5-29 and Michigan still won.

If they had shot a mere 35%, this game would have been a blowout.  Instead, the biggest contributions came inside from Mitch and GRIII, combining for 9-15, and the bench, which went 7-9.  The bench outscored Hardaway, Burke, and Stauskas, 21-20.

This has all of the makings of a "team of destiny."  Somebody always steps up.  And now, Michigan gets to be the underdog.


April 7th, 2013 at 2:28 PM ^


"Hardaway, Burke, and Stauskas went a combined 5-29 and Michigan still won."
That stat still absolutely shocks me.
If you told me before the game:  "Hardaway, Burke, and Stauskas will go a combined 5-29, now tell me what has to happen elsewhere against the 2-3 zone for Michigan to win" . . . I don't think I could have.  I would not have had enough imagination.


April 7th, 2013 at 2:00 PM ^

Ware was a big loss for Louisville.  They now only have two guards who are really good at pressing full court.  Pitino had to back off during most of the first half against Wichita State to ensure he didn't wear down Silva and Smith or get them in foul trouble. 

With Michigan's ability to beat a press (see VCU), this should be an entertaining game.


April 7th, 2013 at 2:15 PM ^

Louisville didnt look like the same team yesterday after the loss of Ware.  Without him, the Cards have a walk-on PG backing up both Siva and Smith.   That means they cant afford to get ther PGs in foul trouble and thus can't play the same aggressive full court pressure defense they're known for this year.  THEY ARE A DIFFERENT TEAM

  I assume thier gameplan will remain the same against us and I thats why like this matchup.  As a half court offense, the Cards can get stagnant and can go for long periods without scoring.  Their runs usually start with easy turnover buckets followed by the full court press (we have Trey and Spike).   They dont shoot the 3 amazingly well and their PGs can be a little reckless with ball, giving up a good amount of points in transition (our strength).

If everyone shows up, we dont turn the ball over and knock down open shots, were gonna be in good shape to win it all.

Go Blue!!  Bring it on home.


April 7th, 2013 at 2:18 PM ^ has some of the ATS ("against the spread") trivia for Louisville and Michigan, and some of these are intriguing really. For example: 

MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.

MICHIGAN is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.

MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.

MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.