UTL-2 Weather Forecast

Submitted by MGoSoftball on September 5th, 2013 at 1:55 PM

Here is the UTL-2 weather (Terminal) Forecast for KARB courtesy of the USAF.  Now the 48 hour forecast is only about 60% accurate so plan accordingly.

 

Morning: 70 deg, mostly sunny, 25% chance of rain

Afternoon: 80 deg, mostly sunny, 50% chance of rain

Evening: Mid-70s, mostly cloudy, 50% chance of rain

Kick-Off: 71 deg, mostly cloudy, 50% chance of rain.

Half-time: 68 deg, mostly clear, 20% chance of rain.

Looks like you had better keep a poncho in your back pocket just in case.

 

Comments

boliver46

September 5th, 2013 at 4:06 PM ^

Just because it's difficult doesn't provide a built-in excuse to be inaccurate.  You still need to be right at a much higher rate.  Even doctors are held to a standard (r.e. malpractice if they're wrong enough), whereas meteorologists can scream "the sky is falling" creating unnecessary panic - be way off base - and still win a TV Emmy voted on by their "peers".  There are no consequences for their innacuracies.

If I'm wrong in my job, it's my head...and I'm just a lowly computer nerd.

TheDirtyD

September 5th, 2013 at 4:09 PM ^

If only that were easy. The first thing and general rule forecasters live by is worst possible scenario. So your always going to get what they think the worst is that has the most likely chance of happening. They actually are correct just because what you hear on tv isn't right they're forecasting for a wide area not a local town or city.

boliver46

September 5th, 2013 at 4:18 PM ^

can see this to an extent but also feel they are part of the culture of news sensationalism...

NEXT ON CHANNEL WHATEVER NEWS!  A gigantic storm is headed our way!  Time to gather supplies in preparation for this arctic blizzard!  More at 6pm!

They'll show video of people scrambling at stores to stock up in reaction to this sensationalism - further perpetuating their calamitous prediction.

All of this done in a neverending attempt to outdo and one-up their competition.  Meanwhile, the "blizzard" turns to flurries - people panicked for no reason - needless children's hopes dashed in belief school would be cancelled - but who cares...the station got it's ratings.

 

 

Soulfire21

September 5th, 2013 at 5:00 PM ^

You sound unnecessarily spiteful towards meterologists.  They're trying to do what, predict the future?  Easy stuff, predicting the future is.  I wanted to be a meteorologist originally (the pay wasn't good, so I dropped) but do follow weather as an amateur and I can confidently say that, yes, predicting what tomorrow will bring is slightly difficult.

Especially because you have to balance people.  If you tell them things are going to get bad (i.e. the worst case you're predicting) you run the risk of them not taking you seriously in the future if things don't pan out that way.  If you tell them things are going to be fine, but they're actually really bad, you have put people are risk.

WolvinLA2

September 5th, 2013 at 5:49 PM ^

You know what's not hard?  Being a weather man in Southern California.  It's always sunny, and anywhere between 70 and 100 with few exceptions, and that margin is actually smaller depending on the time of year.  If you said Sunny and 80s you'd get it right about 2/3 of the days.  

Now, we do have the coolest named weathermen, such as Garth Kemp and Dallas Raines.  

bobdgil

September 6th, 2013 at 4:53 AM ^

There are several ways to right click on a Mac depending on your specific setup. Holding the control key and clicking will always work. If you are using a modern laptop, you should be able to click with two fingers on the track pad or in the bottom right corner with one finger as if there were a physical button. You can choose your preferred method in system preferences under trackpad. If you're using a recent Apple mouse, you should be able to click the right side of the mouse as if there were a physical button. Of course, you can always use any 3rd party mouse as well (USB/Bluetooth). While I don't know your exact situation, there should be plenty of ways for you to right click. If you have any questions on anything, I'd be happy to help.

M-Dog

September 5th, 2013 at 9:05 PM ^

"I can see this to an extent but also feel they are part of the culture of news sensationalism..."

Yes, they do like to go for the hype.  For example, why do they never mention the impact of wind chill in the summer?  You always hear about how the wind chill will make a 20 degree day feel like -20, but you never hear when it will make a 90 degree day feel like 70.  It actually does work that way. 

I remember a day where the temp was almost 100 degrees, but the nice breeze made it feel only like the 80's.  But no mention of that on the weather forecast.  Instead we got the "humidity index" to make it seem even hotter.

So that's the formula you get . . . wind chill in the winter and humidity in the summer, but never the other way around.  Whatever hypes it the most.

 

 

gbdub

September 5th, 2013 at 8:44 PM ^

There's a big difference between a meteorologist and a TV weatherman. The former is pretty serious science. The latter just needs to be able to wave entertainingly at a green screen while reading a NWS report.

Anyway, the "meteorologists get to be wrong all the time" argument is silly, because success in a given field has to be considered relatively. A .300 batting average is really good, because it's hard and few can do better. Likewise, perfectly predicting the weather is really, really hard, so even the best forecasters are often wrong.

Finally, real weather prediction is about probabilities - so if someone predicts a 90% chance of rain and it stays dry, the forecaster isn't necessarily "wrong", they just got hit with a low probability event. Like losing on a lucky card in poker even if you were strategically correct in every decision.

UMichGA

September 5th, 2013 at 6:21 PM ^

Just read the requirements to graduate with a bachelor's in meteorology.  I still sit in amazement every time a meteorologist has to sit next to the people that got a journalism or communications degree, and take their stupid jokes.

I would laugh at them and tell them to try and explain atmospheric dynamics.

After doing the research about what it requires to become a meterologist, I actually watch the news just for the weather.

ijohnb

September 5th, 2013 at 2:42 PM ^

think so.  I weather terms, I think of a 30% chance of rain as being a toss up.  That is the fall back it may rain it may not.  50% means "your damn lucky if it doesn't rain."

corundum

September 5th, 2013 at 2:09 PM ^

A cold front will be washing out but simultaneously dropping into lower Michigan Saturday night. Should remain mostly dry but there will still be a chance for some convective activity. You will want to check the forecast Saturday morning before picking out your gameday attire (if you are a rain-fearing Nancy).

Brhino

September 5th, 2013 at 2:18 PM ^

weather.com gives a 10% chance of rain for Saturday.  Last week's forecast from MGoSoftball also gave a significantly higher chance of rain than the other forecasts, and it was a dry day.

MichiganPhotoRod

September 5th, 2013 at 2:35 PM ^

One particular day this summer in my local area the official forecast called for 0% chance of rain.

It rained.

 

<Insert Dumb and Dumber clip here>

Lloyd: What do you think the chances are of a guy like you and a girl like me... ending up together?

 

Mary: Well, Lloyd, that's difficult to say. I mean, we don't really...

 

Lloyd: Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?

 

Mary: Not good.

 

Lloyd: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?

 

Mary: I'd say more like one out of a million.

 

[pause]

 

Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance... *YEAH!*

 

True Blue Grit

September 5th, 2013 at 2:34 PM ^

Saturday night.  And since a U-M meteorologist runs that site, I'm going with his forecast.  But it is still likely to be adjusted closer to gametime, so I'm not going to worry - yet. 

MgoSuh

September 5th, 2013 at 3:02 PM ^

I feel like for the UTL game in 2011 people were predicting it was like an 80% chance of rain at kickoff and it was absolutely beautiful all afternoon and night.