Upsets Move Michigan to #11? Predictions...
Michigan will get the job done at Minnesota easily! Other games to keep an eye on before CFP selection...
It's a decent possibility up to four teams immediately above us get upset this weekend (FPI % and lines):
#12 Oklahoma St @ Texas Tech - only 60% chance to win, 2.5pt line
Georgia @ #11 Florida - only 54.5% chance to win, 2.5pt line
#9 ND @ #21 Temple - 80.5% chance to win, 10.5pt line
#8 Stanford @ Washington St. - 82.5% chance to win, 10pt line
I think all of these have a good shot, since in three of the games the ranked team is on the road. Least likely would be Temple. Watch out Stanford!
October 30th, 2015 at 9:50 AM ^
We are not getting in over 1 loss OSU. A road loss to us would now be seen as a quality loss to a top 10 team on the road. We had 2 losses to "quality teams", including one at home.
OSU would have had one....on the road.
October 30th, 2015 at 9:55 AM ^
But if we don't win out none of it matters.
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October 30th, 2015 at 10:17 AM ^
I am not talking about OSU getting the extra game to redeem themselves. I am talking about if OSU loses to UM they wont be penalized by dropping below a 2 loss UM. It will be considered a "quality loss" nationally on the road to a (at the time) a top 12ish team in UM. And their only loss. Just like UM is not penalized a ton for losing to Utah and Sparty and hence are the highest ranked 2 loss team.
October 30th, 2015 at 11:06 AM ^
if OSU loses to UM and doesn't make the conference title game. If a 2 loss UM were to win the Big Ten we'd quickly find out how much weight the committee puts into winning the conference. Does the Big Ten get left out of the playoff or would they slot a one loss OSU in there even though they didn't win the conference.
October 30th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
October 30th, 2015 at 1:51 PM ^
Err my understanding is that if you all win out with an MSU loss to OSU and you beat OSU then assuming 7-1 conference records the next tie breaker is CFP rank. If OSU is ahead of you then they go to the BTCG.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:12 AM ^
Maybe not, but when a team loses has a great effect on things
October 30th, 2015 at 9:52 AM ^
If that scenario played out, the CFP committee would have some decisions to make. Remember how OSU jumped TCU last year? "Harbuagh leads UM to College Football Playoff in First Year" would be one hell of a story line and A LOT of people would be tuning in because of it.
Right or wrong, it all boils down to $$$.
October 30th, 2015 at 9:59 AM ^
plus the fact that there are hopefully intellgent people on the committe. they will look at the MSU game in the right light. still a loss but would be hopefully weighted appropriatly.
I think if we win out. and beat an undefeated OSU and an undefeated Iowa (who should be ranked in the top4 by that point I would have to imagin if undefeated still. That would be very hard to ignore.
still would require some upsets in other conferences
October 30th, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^
There certainly would need to be some upsets. It would also mean the UM would be on a 6-game win streak and would be conference champions. Would that be enough to move them up 11 spots in 6 weeks? I don't know, but it is possible.
October 30th, 2015 at 9:51 AM ^
With where Michigan is in the polls and the matchups of top 15 teams still to come, I truly believe Michigan controls its own destiny into the College Playoff but ONLY if Ohio State beats Michigan State.
A Michigan win over top ranked Ohio State will easily shoot them up the rankings, at least just above or just below OSU. This gives Michigan the tiebreaker into the Big 10 Championship for MSU will be ranked below Michigan and OSU due to their loss the previous week.
The playoff committee cannot overlook Michigan, the Big 10 champions coming off 6 straight wins, with the last 3 likely being all ranked in the top 25.
October 30th, 2015 at 9:57 AM ^
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October 30th, 2015 at 10:13 AM ^
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October 30th, 2015 at 9:56 AM ^
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October 30th, 2015 at 9:58 AM ^
based on your numbers, the odds of all 4 of those upsets occuring is under 1%.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:01 AM ^
so better odds than us losing against msu?
October 30th, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^
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October 30th, 2015 at 10:05 AM ^
I really do not care at this point about other teams. I just want us to win and improve. This poll you are referencing is worthless in the grand scheme of things. I will worry about polls when the CFP poll starts to come out.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:05 AM ^
But I really doubt Stanford will lose this weekend.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:06 AM ^
If Brian is right about their fortune and ability, 2 State losses aren't out of the question.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:19 AM ^
If Michigan wins out it is interesting to think about where they could end up ranked in the final poll (pre championship games) if a "perfect storm".
This assumes no massive upsets - so Sparty has 1 loss (to OSU) and OSU has 1 loss (to UM). In that scenario the Big 10 could have 4 of top 9 teams because....
What UM wants
- Either Baylor or TCU to run the table. (let's pick TCU)
- Oklahoma to beat whichever of the above does not run the table (lets say Baylor) - giving that team 2 losses. But Oklahoma would also have 2 losses as they lost to TCU.
- Notre Dame to lose to Stanford giving them 2 losses
- LSU running the table, giving Bama a 2nd loss
- Clemson running the table giving FSU a 2nd loss
- Iowa wins out
- Florida to get upset by GA or FSU
- OK State to lose to 2 of 3 (TCU, Baylor, OK)
So that gives Michigan a good chance to end around 9 if we win out (why not higher you ask if we beat OSU ... .well because 2 of our losses were to teams ahead of us, and then there would be 4 undefeated ahead of us)
End of season poll
- TCU 12-0
- LSU 12-0
- Clemson 12-0
- Iowa 12-0
- OSU 11-1 (loss to UM)
- Stanford 11-1
- MSU 11-1 (loss to OSU)
- Utah 11-1
- UM 10-2
- Oklahoma 10-2
- Baylor 10-2
- Bama 10-2
- Florida 10-2
- FSU 10-2
- OK State 10-2
- ND 10-2
Then you assume OSU beats Iowa and if its a blowout 1 loss Iowa drops below UM. Then either Stanford or Utah must lose a 2nd game as they'd play in the P12 championship. Is that enough to drop them below UM? So UM could finishh 7 or 8 when all is said and done before the bowls.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:32 AM ^
...MSU loses by a lot to OSU, that really changes everything.
Computers already have Michigan very close to or ahead of MSU. If MSU's only loss is a blow out to OSU, and Michigan beats OSU, it would be very possible that a 2 loss Michigan ends up ranked ahead of MSU.
The first step, however, is for Michigan to win by a large margin (and also get a shut out or at least no more than 7 points for Minnesota) this Saturday.
Michigan's selling point for the rankings will sort of depend on being perceived as a top 3 defense nationally. So Michigan has to win against the lesser teams by holding them to very few points.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:09 AM ^
October 30th, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^
I'd be shocked if a 2 loss team gets a sniff for the playoffs......and would be very happy to be shocked.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:12 AM ^
October 30th, 2015 at 11:13 AM ^
We don't have to jump OSU and MSU, only be within one spot of them in the final poll. What I'd like to know is what happens if somehow it ends up being OSU, UM, Sparty in the poll order. We'd be within one of OSU and the head-to-head would give us the edge in the tie-breaker, but MSU would also be within one of us and have the head-to-head. Is that when they go to overall record for the tie-breaker?
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Here's my own rooting guide for the rest of the season (although it's all moot if we don't win out):
Georgia over Florida this weekend, lose in SEC Championship game to LSU
ND over Temple (removes an undefeated who could jump us), but lose to Pitt next week (Pitt just lost to UNC and will fall out of the top-25), then beat Stanford last game of the year.
Texas Tech over Ok St
Utah over OSU, lose to 2-loss Stanford in Pac-12 Championship
Memphis lose to Temple, beat Houston (eliminates another undefeated that could sneak up on us).
Oklahoma beat TCU, TCU beats Baylor, Ok St beats Oklahoma on last game on schedule (so, essentially, have the Big 12 implode) - I think we could get in over a 1-loss TCU or Baylor with a B1G Championship (big win like OSU last year).
FSU beats Clemson, loses to FL in last game on schedule. ACC championship game needs to also produce another loss for one of their top-25 teams.
Alabama, loses to Miss St, and LSU (sad Saban goes to the NFL)
LSU beats Ole Miss and then beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game to lock down 1 playoff spot.
Toledo (yes, TOLEDO) has to lose at some point.
Michigan State loses to OSU and then again to PSU
Ohio State loses to Michigan
Iowa loses to Michigan in B1G Championship by a large margin
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In this scenario, which is quite unlikely (but I will take all the credit if it happens), I believe Michigan is in the CFP with LSU, TCU or Baylor and possibly with OSU.
That would be nuts.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:14 AM ^
Don't jinx it bro. You can't just say we're going to win easily against Minnesota especially with how much emotion is in this game.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:16 AM ^
October 30th, 2015 at 10:20 AM ^
First things first. Kill all the gophers.
October 30th, 2015 at 12:30 PM ^
*looks at blogger with quizzical expression*
"Check me if I'm wrong Sandy, but if I kill all the golfers, they're gonna lock me up and throw away the key..."
October 30th, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^
October 30th, 2015 at 10:25 AM ^
Chad, nice patience! Waiting in the weeds to post since 2009.
p.s. I think Iowa could lose to Indiana in 2 weeks. Just seems LOL to see Iowa undefeated.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:23 AM ^
think we'll be on the oustide looking in for the playoff BUT the first committee poll last year had OSU #16...
so....you never know.
October 30th, 2015 at 3:48 PM ^
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October 30th, 2015 at 10:27 AM ^
October 30th, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^
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October 30th, 2015 at 10:41 AM ^
on how Michigan could get into the Big Ten CCG and/or the playoff require me to want Notre Dame to defeat Stanford?
I am genetically incompatible with wanting ND to win anything.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:50 AM ^
At this point, that's looking like an elimination game. A loss that late in the year (and the 2nd loss for either team) would make it difficult for the loser to make the playoff (unless the amount of undefeated and one loss teams is super small).
October 30th, 2015 at 10:43 AM ^
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October 30th, 2015 at 10:46 AM ^
That said, I enjoy reading all of your comments. It's nice discussing this instead of what bowl might we get if we get to six wins.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:58 AM ^
October 30th, 2015 at 11:01 AM ^
Here's what people are forgetting. In the playoff rankings there is a human factor. So if M beats OSU, OSU beast MSU there is a chance the committee may have Michigan ranked ahead of both. The reason I say that is the human factor may be in play where they all look at the Michigan loss to MSU as a fluke since the reality is they had the game won without a botched snap. Not saying it's likely but there is a chance. Obviously none of this means anything unless Michigan takes care of business the rest of the way.
October 30th, 2015 at 12:49 PM ^
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October 30th, 2015 at 11:13 AM ^
Here's my own rooting guide for the rest of the season (although it's all moot if we don't win out):
Georgia over Florida this weekend, lose in SEC Championship game to LSU
ND over Temple (removes an undefeated who could jump us), but lose to Pitt next week (Pitt just lost to UNC and will fall out of the top-25), then beat Stanford last game of the year.
Texas Tech over Ok St
Utah over OSU, lose to 2-loss Stanford in Pac-12 Championship
Memphis lose to Temple, beat Houston (eliminates another undefeated that could sneak up on us).
Oklahoma beat TCU, TCU beats Baylor, Ok St beats Oklahoma on last game on schedule (so, essentially, have the Big 12 implode) - I think we could get in over a 1-loss TCU or Baylor with a B1G Championship (big win like OSU last year).
FSU beats Clemson, loses to FL in last game on schedule. ACC championship game needs to also produce another loss for one of their top-25 teams.
Alabama, loses to Miss St, and LSU (sad Saban goes to the NFL)
LSU beats Ole Miss and then beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game to lock down 1 playoff spot.
Toledo (yes, TOLEDO) has to lose at some point.
Michigan State loses to OSU and then again to PSU
Ohio State loses to Michigan
Iowa loses to Michigan in B1G Championship by a large margin
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In this scenario, which is quite unlikely (but I will take all the credit if it happens), I believe Michigan is in the CFP with LSU, TCU or Baylor and possibly with OSU.
That would be nuts.
October 30th, 2015 at 11:28 AM ^
All of this speculation is fun, but it's just speculation. What I do know is that the last 6 weeks of the season are going to be EXTREMELY fun to watch. Also, it is so nice to be able to enjoy the back half of the football season knowing that each game is meaningful to Michigan and where it ends up in the rankings.
I love it! Football hasn't been this fun since 2011.
October 30th, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^
I go to Temple Law School, and everyone on campus is psyched for the ND game. One professor asked anyone who wasn't going to be watching that game what their excuse is. (A: taking my daughters trick-or-treating.) I don't think it's likely they pull the upset, but for the sake of my classmates, here's hoping the Owls get it done.
October 30th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^
October 30th, 2015 at 1:57 PM ^
Worried about not covering the spread? I don't know anyone who is worried.
October 30th, 2015 at 4:23 PM ^
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October 30th, 2015 at 11:42 AM ^
Yeah! They will EASILY win! Just like we were supposed to easily beat App State, Akron, Toledo, and several other teams!
I have learned to not take any team for granted. Any team can lose to a much worse one on any given Saturday.