Upsets Move Michigan to #11? Predictions...

Submitted by BornInAA on October 30th, 2015 at 9:24 AM

Michigan will get the job done at Minnesota easily! Other games to keep an eye on before CFP selection...

It's a decent possibility up to four teams immediately above us get upset this weekend (FPI % and lines):

#12 Oklahoma St @ Texas Tech - only 60% chance to win, 2.5pt line

Georgia @ #11 Florida - only 54.5% chance to win, 2.5pt line

#9 ND @ #21 Temple - 80.5% chance to win, 10.5pt line

#8 Stanford @ Washington St. - 82.5% chance to win, 10pt line

I think all of these have a good shot, since in three of the games the ranked team is on the road. Least likely would be Temple. Watch out Stanford!

Comments

Tater

October 30th, 2015 at 3:46 PM ^

Other than having two competent QB's, Florida is almost a mirror image of Michigan.  They have a lot of talent that previously underachieved due to poor coaching and have made it "back" due to a great defense.  I don't look for them to lose in "The World's Largest Cocktail Party."

 

 

MGoJordan

October 30th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^

... UGA will not beat Florida. They just assigned our former third string QB as the starter, and we start more freshmen on defense than almost any team in the nation (as well as how many freshman get playing time).  It will be brutal for UGA.

The most likely loss I see is Oklahoma at Tech.  Maybe the Red Raiders will play spoiler like they did to Texas a few years back.

ijohnb

October 30th, 2015 at 10:30 AM ^

you have to think that at some point Temple is going to go from a "cute story" to a real thing.  If they beat ND then it really possible they could jump us, isn't it?  They would be undefeated with a couple of relatively impressive wins and the hype that surrounds beating ND.  At some point you have to think that undefeated teams are going to jump us right?  I think the better scenario would be another Stanford loss and then Stanford beating ND.

Gofor2

October 30th, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^

They will jump UM. They should, they would be undefeated and have a bigger win. UM is getting more credit than it deserves. It's not like they were good last year and then lost 2 games. UM has sucked, and I mean really sucked, further they have not beat anyone, not a single team worth a shit. Makes no sense. The AP and coaches give UM a big " Harbaugh" credit, but the CFP committee will not fall for that bullshit, UM will have to earn it.

cGOBLUEm

October 30th, 2015 at 9:30 AM ^

While I hope they lose, I don't see ND or Stanford falling this weekend. All I know is that Michigan needs to significalntly climb the polls in the next 4 weeks. If we beat OSU, I don't know how far they will fall, and M needs to be within one spot of them in the rankings at that point. 

JohnnyBlue

October 30th, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^

Rrankings don't matter. just win.  At this point were playing for a big ten championship.  The only upset we are hopping for is one that results in a "Sparty No!" moment

ijohnb

October 30th, 2015 at 10:49 AM ^

not that unlikely that we would be ranked the highest out of the three if this scenario happens.  If we continue to win, my guess is that we will be ranked no less than 8th by the time Michigan State and Ohio State play with State being no higher than 4.  If OSU beats State comfortably my guess is we would jump State, and would probably jump OSU if we beat them, though if it is close that is not certain.  The key is, if we are ranked higher than State but only by one spot, they would still go because of their head to head "victory" against us.  The scenario would have to be that OSU smacks State hard and we beat OSU somewhat convincingly.  If those two things took place I think we would go to Indi.  And yes, I apparently have thought about it quite a bit.

Yo_Blue

October 30th, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^

If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made.  If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
1.    The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
2.    The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.
3.    The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
4.    The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
5.    The highest ranked team in the first College Football Playoff poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the College Football Playoff poll.  In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game.
6.    The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
7.    The representative will be chosen by random draw.

phork

October 30th, 2015 at 1:42 PM ^

No you would't go anywhere.  OSU would represent the East due to a higher CFP ranking.  For you to be in the BIG Championship and beyond you need OSU to beat MSU and you need to beat OSU and hope that you are high enough to jump OSU and hope that MSU didn't rise too far after their loss and subsequent wins over the rest of their schedule.  The problem for you is that MSU and OSU are both highly ranked, neither will fall too far if one beats the other.

ijohnb

October 30th, 2015 at 2:00 PM ^

is also not correct.  Look at number 5 in the tie breaker.  In the event of three way tie, the highest ranked playoff team goes unless the second highest ranked playoff team beat the highest ranked playoff team and is ranked within 1 spot of them. So, yes, believe it or not, in the scenario above Michigan would go the BIG championship game.  It would be mind-bogling and perhaps completely unjust, but in a scenario where the ranking fell in the manner set forth above Michigan would go.

ijohnb

October 30th, 2015 at 2:10 PM ^

we will need it.  It would make things a lot easier if Nebraska could, ya know, not suck and maybe surprise State in a couple of weeks but I am not holding my breath.

BTW, I was thinking about ND the other day after considering our loss to State for a while.  I bet our loss felt a lot like ND's loss to SC in 2005.  Identical records going in, big rival, home game, new coach, similar ranking, hype maching going, absolutely catastrophic last second result.  Granted, the ending was a lot different but my guess is the feeling was very similar.

Ecky Pting

October 30th, 2015 at 2:09 PM ^

In response to BtB:

What happens if OSU beats MSU and we beat OSU and the rankings end up something like 

#6 OSU
#7 Michigan
#8 MSU

The 3-way tie-breaker condition #5 refers to the top two teams. MSU, having the lowest ranking of the 3, would drop out.

M would move on because of the head-to-head win over OSU, because as the 3-way tie-breaker rule states in the opening paragraph:

"If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative."

The hazard of this tie-breaker for UM, of course, is that when referring back again to condition #5 ... if UM is ranked 2 or more places below OSU, then OSU gets the nod, and Jimmy Harbaugh will quote Bo when he calls it "the lowest day of my athletic career," and we will all eat our cotton-pickin' maize'n'blue hearts out.

Muttley

October 30th, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^

forcing the reader to do some contextual interpretation.

 

  • Does overall refer to conference plus out-of-conference games?  Without context, I'd guess yes, but it seems strange to grant a team playing OOC cupcakes priority over others that played ranked team(s) should the cupcake scheduler have been swept by the other tied teams. Or,
  • Is "Tie-Breaking Process" a misnomer that should be replaced with "Procedure to Determine Division Champion" and the beginning of Step 1 rewritten as "The B1G eight-game conference records of all elgible (remaining) teams are compared."  (The first pass starts with all seven East teams, provided none are on probation.)

I think the latter is the far more likely intent of the B1G.