Update to Big Ten Tournament Scenarios

Submitted by urbanachiever on March 8th, 2013 at 9:36 AM

Sorry if some find this repetitive, but we're at the point where we can pinpoint exactly how the remaining games will affect our seeding.

Indiana @ Michigan Illinois @ OSU Wisconsin @ PSU Michigan BTT seed
Michigan Illinois Either 2
Michigan OSU Either 3
Indiana Either PSU 4
Indiana Either Wisconsin 5

If we beat Indiana, only the Illinois/OSU game matters. If we lose to Indiana, only the PSU/Wisconsin game matters.

Chart

UPDATE: Times for the remaining games (thanks to user turd ferguson)

Wisconsin @ Penn State
12pm, Sunday (BTN)

Illinois @ Ohio State
12:30pm, Sunday (ESPN)

Indiana @ Michigan
4pm, Sunday (CBS)

Comments

turd ferguson

March 8th, 2013 at 9:45 AM ^

For the sake of adding a little information (home teams & date/times):

Wisconsin @ Penn State
12pm, Sunday

Illinois @ Ohio State
12:30pm, Sunday

Indiana @ Michigan
4pm, Sunday

Needs

March 8th, 2013 at 9:47 AM ^

The good news is that with Wisconsin losing, we can't slot into the 4 seed (and thus the most difficult quarterfinal) if we win.

If we beat Indiana, our most likely opponent is probably Iowa, as I expect Illinois to lose @ OSU and Minnesota to lose @ Purdue. That would put us in a quarter against a team that's desperate for a big time win, but also one that we handled pretty easily (albeit a long time ago).

If we lose, we're almost certainly playing Wisconsin.

Soulfire21

March 8th, 2013 at 10:03 AM ^

Obviously I want to win, but I absolutely would not mind another meeting with Wisconsin in the tourney for their buzzer-beater miracle shot against us.  Plus they appear to be reeling a bit (blowout losses to Purdue at the Kohl Center (!!) and against MSU).

AmaizeingBlue

March 8th, 2013 at 10:15 AM ^

Well we can't be slotted 4 seed, but we would be the 5 seed if we lose.  Which would require playing Thursday against the 12 seed, then the 4 seed the next day, then the 1 seed the day after that.  That would be tough.

Lumpy_wolverine

March 8th, 2013 at 9:55 AM ^

Clicking to the chart - Indiana has already clinched #1 seed in the BIG tournament, so they are only playing for pride / possible NCAA seeding. UM is playing for a bye & a significantly easier BIG tournament second round matchup. I hope that we show a desperation.

joeyb

March 8th, 2013 at 10:50 AM ^

If Indiana loses, they will have lost 3 of their last 4 games. They will drop from the overall 1-seed to on the edge of 1/2 seed. Michigan beating them puts them on that same edge, although Michigan will probably be on the losing end of that deal. That will put a lot of pressure on Indiana in the BTT, which is pressure that they don't want. If they beat Michigan on the road, Indiana locks up that overall #1 seed essentially.

I don't think they have as much to play for as Michigan does, but it's not like there is nothing left for them to accomplish.

Needs

March 8th, 2013 at 10:55 AM ^

Midwest bracket might be a mixed blessing. On the one hand, closer to fans. On the other, Louisville's likely on the other side. Though it's probably silly to project through to the round of 8, I'd much rather be a 2 seed and see Gonzaga, Georgetown (though they probably blew their 1 seed chance) or maybe even Duke, than Louisville.

LSAClassOf2000

March 8th, 2013 at 10:04 AM ^

With sixteen scenarios eliminated and the Massey numbers updated, we have the following:

 

MICH / IND. MSU / NW WISC. / PSU OSU / ILL. LIKELIHOOD OF SCENARIO IN UMHOOPS TABLE MICHIGAN WOULD BE…
0.45 0.04 0.2 0.17 0.061% 4
0.45 0.04 0.2 0.83 0.299% 4
0.45 0.04 0.8 0.17 0.245% 5
0.45 0.04 0.8 0.83 1.195% 5
0.45 0.96 0.2 0.17 1.469% 4
0.45 0.96 0.2 0.83 7.171% 4
0.45 0.96 0.8 0.17 5.875% 5
0.45 0.96 0.8 0.83 28.685% 5
0.55 0.04 0.2 0.17 0.075% 2
0.55 0.04 0.2 0.83 0.365% 3
0.55 0.04 0.8 0.17 0.299% 2
0.55 0.04 0.8 0.83 1.461% 3
0.55 0.96 0.2 0.17 1.795% 2
0.55 0.96 0.2 0.83 8.765% 3
0.55 0.96 0.8 0.17 7.181% 2
0.55 0.96 0.8 0.83 35.059% 3

For reference, Michigan has a 55% win probability over Indiana on Massey, and everything else relates precisely to the scenarios on the UMHoops spreadsheet. The essential message is that, looking at likely scenarios, a win (bold type) puts us in a position to be a 3-seed, and a loss  (italics) would make us the 5-seed (again, relating directly to their table). So, based on current estimates:

 

1 Seed 0
2 Seed 9.350%
3 Seed 45.650%
4 Seed 9.000%
5 Seed 36.000%

 

Tuebor

March 8th, 2013 at 10:09 AM ^

That is the way I see it.  I can't see MSU, OSU, or Wisc losing this weekend so we are playing for the 3 seed with a loss relegating us to the 5 seed.

 

I hope they really bring it because getting a conference championship and avoiding a rematch with Indiana until the finals will be huge.

Lumpy_wolverine

March 8th, 2013 at 10:14 AM ^

I don't know that Wiscy is even 80% at Penn State.  PSU has won 2 of their last 3 (including one - ahem - against one of the top teams in the BIG) and have played most other teams tough.  In the meantime, Wiscy has lost two straight (including home against Purdue).  Watching last night's game against Staee - Wiscy looked pathetic.  They were lucky to get past 40 points.  I would put this game more at 60/40.

Tuebor

March 8th, 2013 at 10:47 AM ^

Even if Wiscy loses that merely moves us from the 5 seed to the 4 seed.  I think it is much more important to be a 3 seed this year with OSU as the 2 seed letting IU/Wiscy/MSU battle it out on the other side of the bracket.  At the end of the day the only game that matters is beatin IU on Sunday.

Lumpy_wolverine

March 8th, 2013 at 10:58 AM ^

You're assuming that, as the 5 seed in the BIG, we beat the 12th seed in the first round game - probable, but not certain.

Thinking about NCAA tourney seeding - playing PSU again has no upside.  Losing would drop us to a 4 seed.  Winning still does nothing but tire us out for the second round BIG tourney game.

The difference between 4 and 5 in the BIG is, ultimately, the difference between having to win 4 games versus having to win 3 games to win the tourney.  That's a pretty big difference, I think.

SeattleWolverine

March 8th, 2013 at 12:45 PM ^

If we're the 5 we play PSU and it hurts our SOS/RPI even if we win. If we lose we really drop in seed. Even if we win, we have to come back and play the next day against a team that didn't play the day before. And then even if we beat WI in the 4 vs 5 we'll be playing our 3rd straight in the semis while Indiana is playing their 2nd straight and then in a hypothetical final we'd be playing our 4th straight day while OSU/MSU is playing their 3rd straight. You wind up with a more tired team than your opponents and that'll catch up to you at some point. Not good for a team that has arguably looked tired for a while now. There are several disadvantages to being the 5 and no upside to it. Obviously beating Indiana is the key but it would be fantastic if WI lost too.

StephenRKass

March 8th, 2013 at 11:03 AM ^

In a weird sort of way, I like this turn of events, with everything hinging on Michigan's last game. Of course, I wish Michigan had beat both Wisconsin and Penn State, and that Michigan was in the driver's seat. But that ship has sailed, and the best we can hope for is a shared title.

However, given the play of the freshmen, they undoubtedly have a huge sense of urgency. They won't take this game for granted in any way (PSU, anyone?) Their backs are to the wall, and they have to play the best in the Big 10.

That's the way it should be. You have to play the best and beat the best to be the best. The atmosphere and importance is about the best preparation I can think of for the upcoming tournaments in the Big 10 and the NCAA.

Dustinlo

March 8th, 2013 at 11:25 AM ^

I am not up to par on the tie-breaker for seeding purposes. Can someone explain why IU is guaranteed the one seed and OSU the two seed if they both win?

Needs

March 8th, 2013 at 11:35 AM ^

The first tie breaker is record against all tied teams. 

(Presuming we win)

IU 4-2

OSU 3-3

UM 3-3

MSU 2-4

The next is record against #5 team, Wisconsin. OSU is 1-1, we're 0-1.

 

MGoRossGrad

March 8th, 2013 at 11:36 AM ^

IU and OSU winning puts the standings as such:

IU 14-4

OSU and MSU 13-5

Wisconsin and Michigan 12-6

Clearly, IU has the one-seed, and OSU wins the tie-breaker with MSU because they have a better record against IU.

ChicagoGoBlue

March 8th, 2013 at 11:38 AM ^

Indiana, winning out, would have only 4 B1G losses, so they're #1.

OSU winning out would be tied with MSU winning out (because UW and UM would fall back to tied for 3rd in conference if Indy wins and Wisc wins sunday)  On the season, OSU and MSU split 1-1.  So they move on to tiebreaker 2: record vs the highest ranked team (IU).  OSU went 1-1 vs Indy, while MSU went 0-2.  Thus, OSU would be the 2 seed, MSU the three, in that scenario.

link to tiebreakers rules:

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/111011aae.html

Muttley

March 8th, 2013 at 1:28 PM ^

2013 B1G Tourney Seed Determination Inputs

TEAM REC Vs IU UM OSU MSU WIS ILL MN IA
#2 Indiana 13-4 @UM -- 1-0 1-1 2-0 0-1 NA NA NA
#7 Michigan 12-5 IU 0-1 -- 1-1 1-1 0-1 NA NA NA
#14 Ohio State 12-5 ILL 1-1 1-1 -- 1-1 1-1 0-1 1-0 1-0
#10 Michigan State 12-5 NW 0-2 1-1 1-1 -- 2-0 NA NA NA
#22 Wisconsin 11-6 @PSU 1-0 1-0 1-1 0-2 -- 2-0 1-1 1-1

Blue indicates a game remaining

NA indicates the record versus any of ILL, MN, and/or IA cannot influence seeding.

El Fuego

March 8th, 2013 at 11:34 AM ^

Obviously the regular season championship is on the line, but being a 2 or 3 seed would be great, far better than a 4 or 5.  The difference is playing Minnesota or Illinois then Ohio versus Wisconsin then Indiana.  I would like to revenge the Wisconsin game a much as anyone, but the game will just be SOOOOO BORING

chewieblue

March 8th, 2013 at 12:50 PM ^

After watching the tournament selection special that the BTN had on this weekend, the selection committee expert (I think his name was Greg Shaheen) made it sound like the conference tourney won't have a huge impact on Michigan. A 26-5 record would not be greatly impacted by one early B1G tourney loss. Short of winning the B1G tourney, I don't think it matters much.