The Unfortunate Pivot Point

Submitted by M Ascending on

Now that the season is officially over I sat down this morning to review and ruminate over the first three years of the Harbaugh regime.  After twisting things around various ways in my head, I came upon what I call the Unfortunate Pivot Point.  The Pivot Point may seem obvious to many, but just how significant it is has been was not so self-evident.

In his first two seasons, leading up to last year's Iowa game, Harbaugh's record was 19-3, in contention for the CFP, with a 3 and 3 record against OSU, MSU, and PSU -- that record should have been 4 and 2, but for the FUBAR punt against Staee -- and a dominating bowl win over Florida.

Beginning with last year's Iowa game, Michigan's record is 9 and 8 -- repeat 9 AND 8 -- including 0 and 4 against the big three rivals, and two bowl game losses.  This is incredible to me.  Did anyone think it imaginable that in his third year at the helm Harbaugh would post numbers like this?  

This is not intended as a direct criticism of Harbaugh.  But I am looking for thoughts to explain what has happened since the Pivot Point game?  Could Speight's injury against Iowa be the main or sole reason we have been so bad since that game?  Yes, we all know about the struggles at QB and OL.  But, how can a team with one of the top three defenses in the country be so damn mediocre for that long a stretch?  It just seems that something snapped after the Iowa game and I'm not sure what it was.  Thoughts and comments are welcome.

 

MileHighWolverine

January 9th, 2018 at 8:30 AM ^

What it makes me think is the Hole experimemt left Jim a ticking time bomb that blew up majorly/bigly this year when we lost all of our most talented and experienced players and were left with incredibly young and confused players all over the place. This is inderstandable as Hole’s recruiting fell off a cliff and we need 5 years to getour oline up to snuff....my guess is it will take 6 years given our poor season so prepare for 2 more rough years.

What does bother me is why do our QBs look so so bad....all of them. I’m hoping its that unlike Alabama, the rest of our team wasn’t made up of 5 stars and upperclassmen that can bail our QBs out when needed.

TL/DR - this will take longer than we want.

kaz

January 9th, 2018 at 8:49 AM ^

Well, O'Korn was available for transfer for a reason.  Guys like Ruddock are the exception, guys like O'Korn are the rule.  Good kid, not personally knocking him.  But he wasn't a good QB.

Speight was a 3 star Hoke recruit.  Expectations were just unrealistically high.

Peters was just a RS freshman.  And he was playing well and improving.  Everyone seems to have forgotten that from his one bad game at the end of the season.  The concussion clearly set him back.  Give him the off season.

If Patterson is cleared for 2018 (fingers crossed) I think he helps our other QBs as it will way take the pressure off them to develop at their own paces

1VaBlue1

January 9th, 2018 at 8:56 AM ^

It won't take that long.  I believe the corner will be turned next year, with the only (real) question mark being OT.  The interior line will be good, the WRs will improve, and the QB situation will have two legit 5-stars and a high 4 battling it out.

And yes, our QB situation was that bad the last three years.  Speight was a middling 3-star (that played well beyond his ratings in 2016), JOK was a low-3 that had one P5 offer (PSU - in his home town) and got benched at a G5 school.  Peters was pretty highly rated, but the coaches haven't liked the way he handles pressure (alluded to by umbig11 last week) - and we saw that first hand against SC (and in his 3rd string status until Speight had his neck broken).  We know Patterson is the real deal.  And McCaffrey was the #1 rated QB (by a mile) until he stopped going to camps when HS football started.  That will be a competition that has more talent than any of the three seasons before.  And Peters is no slouch...

 

kaz

January 9th, 2018 at 8:42 AM ^

When Harbaugh was hired before his first game everyone knew that 2017 was going to be challenging by looking at our virtually non-existant 2013, 2014 and 2015 recruiting classes.

And while 2018 should be better, 2019 is actually when we are supposed to be fully locked and loaded

MJG821

January 9th, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^

We lose Higdon, the only back showing actual good starter numbers. Evans is ok but not a starter and I think Walker can start 19 and we might be ok.



Bigger worry is the amazing defensive talent that will go pro. Half of the Dline and secondary are seniors and Gary, Hudson, bush, and hill are ek

markusr2007

January 9th, 2018 at 8:41 AM ^

The players deserve better from the fans.

Michigan had no viable QB this year.

The offensive line sucked.

Harbaugh is accountable for this.

Lets move on.

1VaBlue1

January 9th, 2018 at 9:11 AM ^

They do!  But they also have those freshmen surrounded by talented upper classmen.  Check the rosters - neither Bama, nor Georgia had a majority of 1st or 2nd year players starting on either side of the ball.  UGA, fer crissakes, had 31 friggen seniors on that team!  Thirty one!!!

SeattleWolverine

January 9th, 2018 at 9:29 AM ^

But they have good players across the board. Their freshman are playing because usually they are really good (5 star talent galore) and those guys beat out solid experienced players to see the field. Some of our young guys have played because there is no other solid option. I mean, pretty clearly Harbaugh did not want to play Peters at that point and resisted until he had no choice with Speight's injury and O'Korn's struggles. DPJ needed some grooming but had to play because our experienced wideouts are so thin. Ruiz would probably have redshirted at AL or OSU because he was a functional piece, but only that at this point (which is still pretty good for a 1st year OL). Without taking a stance on Metellus's play, his competition was a true freshman and a walk-on so he basically had to play. We need better depth of talent and competition.

saveferris

January 9th, 2018 at 9:30 AM ^

Maybe at the skill positions, but they're anchored with veterans in the trenches.  Alabama's experience level on the Offensive Line last night was:

  • LT - So
  • LG - RS Jr
  • C - Rs Sr
  • RG - Sr
  • RT - Rs So

Inexperienced QBs and RBs look pretty good when their blockers protect their blindside and open holes to run through.

chickenpotpie

January 9th, 2018 at 9:48 AM ^

Thank you! I wanted to look up Bama's offensive line because I knew it was experienced, so thanks for doing that. I hate this narrative of "oh, Saban played all freshmen and look what they did!"

I'm not saying it isn't impressive that a freshman QB and freshmen RBs did well, but it makes a huge difference when you have experienced players supporting them.

saveferris

January 9th, 2018 at 10:35 AM ^

I think the analysis is incomplete, because if you look at Michgan's offensive line rundown, it's reads like this:

  • LT - Sr
  • LG - So
  • C - Sr
  • RG - Fr
  • RT - Sr

Which doesn't look appreciably worse on paper than Bama or Georgia, but the big issue Michigan has in the offensive line corps right now is depth and competition at each position.  I think it's really telling that none of our starters show any redshirts among them.  We've gone through a cycle of development where players are pressed into service early because there's no other viable options, and if Michigan is going to rise to the level of consistent contenders, they've got to get that fixed.

Now, I think Harbaugh and the offensive staff are working on this, but it's a big reclaimation project to build up a corps of lineman 10-15 strong that provide solid depth and competition that ensures the cream that rises to the top is the best of the best.

UofMedic

January 9th, 2018 at 8:42 AM ^

The date you chose as the "pivot point" was incorrect. The massive change in the team occurred somewhere around April 27, 2017 or so, if I remember correctly. The team played fairly well against both Ohio State and Florida State following the Iowa game, and certainly not close to the product we saw on the field this year. The Iowa game was an unfortunate misstep, or bad game as some would say. We followed that up with two very difficult teams. The NFL draft was the pivot point, at least in my eyes.

Non-Profit

January 9th, 2018 at 8:59 AM ^

This is a bad take. Biggest thing to happen in there was A WHOLE NEW SEASON! If you're gonna pick a pivot point then pick the spot where we lost half our starters to the NFL. Even then...congrats? This team is different from last year's team. Way to go. Great job pointing that out.

1VaBlue1

January 9th, 2018 at 9:04 AM ^

I really hate it when people point to the Orange Bowl against FSU as one of the big games that we lost, without actually looking at context.  Peppers was declared out only 5 minutes before kickoff, and Jake Butt blew out his knee early in the 2nd.  And still they fought like hell and had the lead with 2 minutes left.  But for one missed tackle around the 10 on a kickoff, Michigan wins that game.

That was, IMO, the best coached single game Harbaugh has had at Michigan (so far).  After losing a Hiesman finalist and the Mackey Award winner early, getting hamblasted in a shell-shocked 1st quarter, and putting a true freshman with little PT in for Peppers, he damn near won that game.  For the love of God, stop pointing at that game like it was some choke job from Rich Rod's era...

BlueChip27

January 9th, 2018 at 9:41 AM ^

You can have a D that could stop God but if they are on the field too long becuase the line can't sustain blocks and the QB can't get out of his own way they will eventually break down in a fashion that we've seen.

The disconcerting part is that the OL has been an issue since the Rich Rod days.....why we can't seem to fix it is beyond me. I follow recruiting quite foten and I am thoroughly convinced that the star system is nothing but a bunch of hooey.

chickenpotpie

January 9th, 2018 at 9:45 AM ^

Name a team that can lose as many starters as we did, and still compete for the CFP. Add to that team the problem of going through the 1st and 2nd string QBs.

I'm not saying there aren't issues that need to be addressed. I'm immensely happy to see the coaching changes in the offensive staff. My point is that Michigan was dealing with major obstacles--some of them predictable (a ton of starters leaving), and some of them not (injuries at QB)--that virtually no team could have overcome.

 

BlueGoM

January 9th, 2018 at 10:40 AM ^

"Yes, we all know about the struggles at QB and OL.  But, how can a team with one of the top three defenses in the country be so damn mediocre for that long a stretch?"

 

You answered your own question.

 

Fishbulb

January 9th, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^

A healthy Speight is an average to slightly above average QB. Even with the issues at OL and WR, average to slightly above average QB play wins the MSU and South Carolina games and at least one of the Wisconsin and OSU games.