UNDRAFTED - Manny + Warren

Submitted by swdude12 on June 25th, 2010 at 12:03 AM

I want to know who is telling these kids to leave and go pro? Obviously another year of school for both these kids would have dramatically improved there draft stock.  Just doesnt make sense...you think there would be someone in the university to tell these kids the truth or mentor them or something. i dont know...thoughts?

Comments

FGB

June 25th, 2010 at 2:42 AM ^

that it's "obvious that their draft stock would've improved dramatically" if they stayed.  Manny's projected draft slot has been getting worse every year.  If anything he should've gone after his freshman season.  There is VERY little to suggest his stock would've improved, let alone dramatically.  NBA teams draft on current production or future projection (do you have it now, or can you have it in the future?), and his production simply wasn't up to NBA level and his projection was drying up. 

At a certain point you are what you are.  He's a phenomenal basketball player.  Unfortunately sometimes that's not quite good enough for the NBA, but its certainly good enough for every other league in the world, so best of luck to him.

Keep your pockets straight Manny

DoubleMs

June 25th, 2010 at 8:03 AM ^

Interaction issues with teammates and coaches tend to lead to reduced draft stock - pro teams don't always want the best player, they want the good-to-great player that will get along and coexist well with the rest of the team. If a player has a history of prima donna tendencies that comes out when they speak to the coaches, they are less likely to draft them.

bronxblue

June 25th, 2010 at 12:08 AM ^

Eh, they both took chances and they have not paid off so far, but I'm sure they considered this potential outcome beforehand.  At some point, Manny and Warren figured it was in their best interests to take a shot at the pros, and I cannot fault them for it.  With Manny, you kind of knew he was going to have a hard time getting drafted.  With Warren, though, most people were shocked to see him not be taken.  Even with his bad combine numbers, 3rd round seemed to be the baement for him.  I feel worse for him, because going undrafted was largely unexpected for Warren; for Manny, quite a few pundits argued he should have stayed.

 

Still, wish them both the best of luck.  Good players have gone undrafted and still made the league.  Hopefully this will slight will galvanize them.

SysMark

June 25th, 2010 at 12:10 AM ^

But if someone is telling you $millions are coming it is hard to ignore.  I listened to a lot of it and barely heard Manny mentioned.  Have to think he would have had  a much better shot with another year in Beilein's system but we will never know.

PurpleStuff

June 25th, 2010 at 12:14 AM ^

I think Manny saw this as a distinct possibility but didn't care and left anyway.  He just wanted somebody to pay him to play basketball wherever that might be and wanted out of U-M (which I know is hard to understand since so many of us would probably give up a ton to go back and be Michigan students again).

Warren looked like a middle round pick at worst based on a number of people's projections.  I don't think he wanted to be in college any more either if given the option and decided to take the money.  A slow 40 at the combine and a little more scrutiny showed what a fine line there is between Round 3 and not drafted at all.

robpollard

June 25th, 2010 at 12:31 AM ^

Warren definitely got blindsided.  You can still argue whether he should have declared when he was proejcted to be a 3rd-5th rd pick (instead of trying for something better), but him not being drafted was a definite surprise.

Manny was just ready to go.  I personally think it was a poor decision, but it just seems like he was done with college basketball and was ready to start playing ball for moeny - even though that was likely to be in Europe/Asia.  This story that was in yesterday's AnnArbor.com showed he had his eyes wide-open.
http://tinyurl.com/296xnx4

Too bad for Michigan's b-ball team, and too bad for him.  You can only have one senior year, and it's gone. May he lead the Bundesliga in scoring.

umich_fan1

June 25th, 2010 at 8:44 AM ^

Manny had to go, the team wasn't going to help his draft status. As someone above stated, his draft status seemed to slip already year to year in college.Too bad for fans and the team, and for Manny himself going undrafted. The undrafted thing doesn't surprise me, he wasn't as consistant as I would have wished and I don't think he was a good defender by any means. He had good offensive skills, but his talent wasn't going to blow anyone away. Best hope is that he develops more (big ?), and maybe catches on with an NBA team  a few years down the road, taking a final roster spot.

jmblue

June 25th, 2010 at 1:56 PM ^

He didn't have to go.  First, team success has little to do with draft position, but anyway, had he stayed, our overall talent level next year might well have been better than this year (at the least, we are going to have more size up front).  If Manny could have developed a midrange game and become a more disciplined defender, his stock would have gone up, regardless of what our record would have been.   He just wanted out. 

SanDiegoWolverine

June 25th, 2010 at 12:29 AM ^

It's much better to be a free agent than get drafted late in the 2nd round.  Manny can now choose a team (Nets, Knicks, Miami, Chicago) that has a ton of extra roster spots where he would have a better chance of making the team than being drafted by say Orlando or LA Lakers that don't have many spots.  I think this will work out for him and if it doesn't look for him to be call-up next year from the D-League.

M-Wolverine

June 25th, 2010 at 1:45 AM ^

It's a great year to be a minimum free agent. Teams have cleared roster space, and will need to fill them out. And those that land big contract free agents aren't going to have a lot of money to pay surrounding players. And more established free agents that aren't great aren't going to want to take the pay cut and take peanuts, so that leaves a lot of room for rookie free agents.

robpollard

June 25th, 2010 at 2:21 AM ^

It is true there are a number of teams clearing cap space, but for those teams who end up at the end of the LeBron/Wade/Bosh/etc musical chairs w/o a partner, it's real unlikely rookie free agents will fill the remaining spots.  Manny not only has to beat out current NBA players and drafted rookies, but also almost 200 players in the D-League (plus foreign league players).  All those D-Leagues guys come cheap, and NBA GMs will have more comfort with players already in their "farm" system. 

If you look at NBA rosters, each team usually has 1-3 players who were undrafted.  Their  resumes show they are far more likely to have spent significant time in the D-League and/or overseas, than they are to have signed with an NBA team and stick right away.

There are exceptions (e.g., Marquis Daniels), but it's basically very few guys.

Manny will play somewhere this year, but I would be shocked if it's in the NBA and not for something like the Fort Wayne Mad Ants or Maccabi Tel Aviv.  Hopefully, he'll be able to build an NBA career in a year or two from there.

 

M-Wolverine

June 25th, 2010 at 5:27 PM ^

It wasn't that he was a lock to make an NBA squad.  It's just that this year, with there being a likelihood of a number of players earning the bare minimum to fill roster spots, his chances increase.  Because he's still competing against all the guys you mention in a normal year.  But then he's also competing with guys earning more than the minimum, but less than the midlevel exception, usual veterans who are more valuable to a team, and thus more desirable, but also are established enough that they're not really looking to take a pay cut just to make a roster on a squad that has a chance to win, because they haven't earned enough to be able to do that.  Now, in the present scenario, some may realize there's going to be a number of spot squeeze, and take the less money rather than going to Europe or such.  But it's still about getting paid, and if a journeyman can make more overseas, he'll do that rather than just be the 12th guy on the new Heat who are giving all their money to 4 players. So, while maybe not becoming likely, it's cut down his pool of competition significantly, this year only.

Gino

June 25th, 2010 at 10:00 AM ^

Good post PurpleStuff.  I think it was Leinart who had the rare wisdom to not go pro early and stay the extra year at USC, and to see the greatness of a far simpler life (extra year in college vs the perpetual and rootless road show in the pros)

PurpleStuff

June 25th, 2010 at 11:00 AM ^

He actually stayed because he had a wrist injury and couldn't work out for pro teams.  SC sort of made up the whole "I love college!" storyline to cover for it.  That being said, he had a pretty awesome last semester, taking nothing but one class in ballroom dancing and using his spare time to impregnate volleyball players.

Gino

June 25th, 2010 at 1:25 PM ^

I did not know that. I thought it was b/c he was a big celebrity in LA since they have no sports team, and was living the high life and chose to continue to do so rather than live out of a suitcase in the pros.

turd ferguson

June 25th, 2010 at 12:28 AM ^

in basketball, unlike american football, there's good money to be made outside of the NBA/NFL. you just have to be willing to let circumstances dictate where you live. it'll be interesting to see where manny goes from here. if he's up for it, he'll be fine (financially) playing overseas somewhere. it's just too bad that he'd have to be so far from his family and his (presumed) dream to play in the NBA. anyway, i wish him the best of luck.

jmblue

June 25th, 2010 at 2:00 PM ^

There are certainly more opportunities to make money overseas in basketball than football.  However, most overseas leagues don't pay well.  There are just a handful of leagues in Europe that do, and competition for roster spots is nearly as fierce as it is for NBA ones.  Manny can have a long career abroad, but if he wants to cash in he's got to develop his game further.  European coaches have less patience for guys with raw skills than their American counterparts. 

MGoBender

June 25th, 2010 at 12:43 AM ^

Manny Harris made the right decision.

What could Manny have gained by staying?   Really?  He would be playing with teammates far below his skill level.  He'd have nobody in practice to compete with.  Beilein doesn't have a record of creating NBA talent, so there's not that to rely on.  He spent this last year as an upperclassman leader, he's not going to gain much by doing it again with less talent around him.  Plus, there's the possibility of injury.

By going pro now, Manny is putting himself in a position to grow as a player that he would not have had in Ann Arbor, unfortunately.  He will be with coaches that will be working him into NBA shape.  He will be playing with, competing with, and practicing with players at or above his skill and athletic levels.  And he will do all this while getting paid.

Whether its the NBA, NBDL, or in Europe, good luck to Manny (and Peedi!).  I think you made a difficult but ultimately sound career choice.

Brick

June 25th, 2010 at 1:17 AM ^

You forgot to put ~sarcasm at the end of your post.

Unless of course you meant to bash the coach, every player on the team and say that's it's a good decision for all NCAA players to quit school as soon as they are good enough to make money overseas.

maxr

June 25th, 2010 at 6:21 AM ^

Yes, that's exactly it: it's a good decision for all NCAA players to quit school as soon as they are good enough to make money, be it in the NBA or overseas.  Considering how insane the NBA has become with throwing money at anyone with "potential," and the fact that, at 21, Harris is considered an "old man" by NBA teams, he probably should have entered the draft sooner.

BigBlue02

June 25th, 2010 at 10:53 AM ^

Yes but Manny wasn't good enough to make money in the NBA or overseas so the point is kind of moot. He was good enough to POSSIBLY make money in the NBA or overseas. At this point, he doesn't have a degree and doesn't have have a team and doesn't have any money. I think he will pick up somewhere and play in the D-League this year, but personally, I would have liked to see him get his degree and head to Europe or the D-League next year.

jmblue

June 25th, 2010 at 2:07 PM ^

How can you say he made the right decision?  Right now he has nowhere to go.  You guys are seriously overestimating the playing opportunities that exist overseas.  It's not like they hand out six-figure contracts like candy.  You've still got to be really, really good to pull good money overseas.  In virtually every league, the number of roster spots allowed to foreigners is restricted, and contracts usually aren't guaranteed.  Foreign coaches want to win just as badly as coaches here.  They won't babysit a raw talent.  NCAA basketball is a much lower-pressure environment than Europe.  A European team is not going to hold Manny's hand while he learns to use his left hand.  If he can't hack it, they'll cut him loose. 

chitownblue2

June 25th, 2010 at 2:45 PM ^

A European team is not going to hold Manny's hand while he learns to use his left hand.  If he can't hack it, they'll cut him loose. 

Well sure - it's professional basketball. I just guess I don't understand how the alternative is a better option - to stay with a coach he seems to conflict with, players he got into a fight with, and a system in which he regressed for free, or to change scenery and make some money?

jmblue

June 25th, 2010 at 2:53 PM ^

It's a much lower-pressure environment in which to develop his skills.  And really, if he can't coexist with an U.S. college coach and teammates his own age, good luck dealing with a European coach and teammates far older than him, many of whom may not even speak English. 

jmblue

June 25th, 2010 at 3:05 PM ^

That's a little harsh.  He has improved his ballhandling and shooting - maybe not the degree we were hoping for, but they are better.  He was an absolute turnover machine as a freshman and had an even uglier stroke than he does now.  I think a year from now he'll regret not staying that final year.  We'll see. 

MGoBender

June 25th, 2010 at 3:09 PM ^

How can you say he made the right decision?  Right now he has nowhere to go.

For the sake of argument, let's say Manny ends up in the NBDL.

My first post provides one main reason why I think he should go: the talent he would be working with here is far inferior to the talent he will be working with wherever he ends up.  This should be undisputable.  It's not a knock on Stu Douglass and Zack Novak and Metrics - it's an assessment that he'd be working with players that are currently NBA fringe players. 

What skills can Manny develop at UM in the next year that he couldn't develop in the NBDL?  Everyone says that Manny needs to develop a jump shot.  Why can't he do that in the NBDL?  Wouldn't he be better served to work on his shooting and other skills 10 hours a day instead of the NCAA-mandated limited time that he'd be allowed to work on it in Ann Arbor?

Financially, in the NBDL Manny would make $35,000.  If he gets called up, the minimum 10 day contract in the NBA is $35,000.  He would be making decent money doing what he wants to do in life (isn't that the goal of getting a degree) and he would be developing his profession at a rate faster than he would be able to by staying in school.

jmblue

June 25th, 2010 at 3:33 PM ^

NBDL salaries aren't that high.  According to this source, they actually ranged from $12,000 to $24,000 in 2009-10:

http://www.insidehoops.com/nbdl.shtml

So he'd be making pretty lousy money, have to live in the middle of nowhere, and face greater pressure to perform than he would in college.  (Scouts don't look kindly on a guy who can't get off an NBDL bench.)  And playing with more talent around him is not necessarily a positive thing.  At U-M he was virtually guaranteed a starting spot.  In the NBDL he'd have to fight for playing time.  Is that really preferable to a final year (which he can never get back) of playing college ball and being BMOC in Ann Arbor? 

chitownblue2

June 25th, 2010 at 3:34 PM ^

Do you know another salary that's not high? NCAA's college player.

Essentially, this breaks down to this: if you believe that Harris, by leaving Michigan, is damaging his future development, this is a bad decision.

I happen to think that if Harris is good enough to be in the NBA, he'll get there. If not, he'll get to Europe. If he's not good enough to be there, he'll have to do something outside sports. I don't think his one missed year will hamstring his future - so, he may as well make a few bucks.

MGoBender

June 25th, 2010 at 3:47 PM ^

I've read they can be as high as $40,000. 

http://espn.go.com/page2/s/mckendry/020108.html

http://sports-law.blogspot.com/2006/04/35000-question-will-lower-nbdl-a…

This second link says average is 35K.  First link says as much as 40K.

I don't see how playing with more talent around you is anything but positive.  Ask just about any coach in the world.  The more talent you have around you, the better you get during practice.  Playing time or a starting spot does not equate to a faster progression.  Plus I think the amount of time Manny would be able to spend in the gym and in the weight room is a major benefit that would cancel out any possible benefit from starting games in Ann Arbor.

It's not an exact science and for a while I was of the opinion that Manny should stay.  However, the more I thought about these things from a career-development viewpoint (and not an "OMG I want Manny to stay" view, my original view), I decided it might be best for him to move on.  There's no telling for sure.  However, when you factor in the problems Manny was having in house, it probably was the better decision.

MGoBender

June 25th, 2010 at 11:13 AM ^

You completely missed the point.  Manny has a limited amount of time to make money by playing basketball.  If you think that he can't improve his draft status by staying, then financially he is better off earning the 35K he'll make this upcoming year in the NBDL (could grow exponentially if called up).

After his playing days are over, he has the ability to go back and get the degree.  He will not have the ability to re-live the first year of his professional career and make that money back.

If you told a UM junior that he could put off his graduation for a minimum of 35K a year - doing what you want - with the possibility of doubling or tripling that in less that one year, I think most would take you up on that offer.

chitownblue2

June 25th, 2010 at 11:25 AM ^

Manny has been Academic All-Big 10 every single semester he's been at Michigan - school is clearly important to him. I will bet that you're completely fucking wrong.

Even if you were right - if he values a degree little enough to not come back and get it, what makes you think that he'd place any value to STAY and get it?

Nieme08

June 25th, 2010 at 2:53 AM ^

i was torn on this whole thing but tom from AA made a great point. You have to let go of your love/hope for success for michigan sports and realize that Manny has a better opportunity to get better as a pro, playing against better players every day than he does playing at UM. He can always go back to school 

lhglrkwg

June 25th, 2010 at 6:39 AM ^

i believe manny said that it felt like he had been in ann arbor more than 3 years because he was carrying so much of the team's weight all 3 years, that along with the fact that he'd probably developed about as much as he can at M means he probably did the right thing for himself

BoBo24

June 25th, 2010 at 9:22 AM ^

... whatever. There was a point when Turner was out when he was the top scorer in the league. And I think he ended up at number 3 or 4, that was my point. And no, he is not Kobe, but it is a shock that someone with his talent cannot get drafted. I know he is not a point guard.