UM/MSU Game Prediction

Submitted by uniqenam on October 11th, 2011 at 2:27 PM

So I wrote this today in a facebook note instead of studying when my Sparty friend asked for a prediction.  I thought I'd maybe post it here for my MGoFriends.

 

 

Saturday, October 15: PREGAME

The stands are packed, the players are jacked, and the Situation is happy, because this is THE MSU-UM GAME!  Denard Robinson descends from his permanent residency on Mount Olympus on the wings of cherubim, the soles of his shoes coated in the frosty dew of the morning sky, coming to a gentle landing next to Brady Hoke; the hospitals of East Lansing will be swamped in the next few hours as thousands of MSU sorority girls have swooned at the heavenly sight.  Mark Dantonio looks on with a stony stare.

 

 

Saturday, October 15: Coin toss

Michigan sends its team captains to the middle of the field to meet with the head thugs of the MSU Jailbirds; Mike Martin flexes his left bicep, and a stain noticeably spreads in Kirk Cousins pants. Mark Dantonio looks on with a stony stare.

 

 

Saturday, October 15: Kickoff

The "Greek-warriors-in-ski-masks" have won the toss, and defer to the second half; the game should be over by then anyway.  Martavious Odoms receives the kick, and returns the ball to the M-23.  A chorus of angels burst in joyful harmony as Denard takes the field; he must motion them to quiet so the O-line can hear his snap count.  Mark Dantonio looks on with a stony stare.

 

 

Saturday, October 15: 1st Quarter

The Michigan Agricultural College Aggies fold easy on the first drive, as THE MIGHTY HOKE TROLL has been rolling with a 2-QB formation; yards are easy to come by, the Situation is angry, and Mark Dantonio looks on with a stony stare.  The Aggies punt on their first posession, after making it close to midfield.  

 

 

Saturday, October 15: 2nd Quarter

All seems in hand already after a dominant first quarter by the MEEEEEEEEEEECHIGAN WOLVERINES, as the second quarter of play begins with D. Xavier Robinson taking a snap at the Southeastern Gangsters University 23rd.  But wait, what's this??? Denicos Allen looks like he has the ball off a tipped pass, and he's running up the sideline for a SPARTAN TOUCHDOWN, with 9 and 20 left in the 2nd quarter (says George "I'm boring" Blaha).  The Spartan sideline is alight with hope, fury, ecstasy, and the burning light of a couch enshrouded in flame.  Mark Dantonio looks on with a stony stare.

 

 

Saturday, October 15: 3rd Quarter

It's 14-14; we have a football game.  The 3rd quarter is a back and forth field position struggle; Green and Gold pro-combatters come out with a field goal.  A flower blooms, an eagle soars.  Mark Dantonio looks on with a stony stare.

 

 

Saturday, October 15: 4th Quarter

After a quick 3-and-out, the Gay (NTTAWWT) Men of Sparta receive a punt, and grind down the field for 8 minutes, scoring a touchdown on a Kirk Cousin naked bootleg dash.  Looks like they will Sparty On tonight.  Suddenly, a terrible rending of the air is heard, like a giant woolly mammoth flatulating into the Horn of Helm's Deep; the denizens of East Lansing look left and right in TERROR, their hands clasped firmly over their ears to defend themselves from the horrible sound!  As the sound dies off into the distance, the windows of the press box are seen shattered; Denard Robinson has released his battle-cry.  Inspired by the awe of such rampant anger, the MEEEEEEECHIGAN OFFENSE scores 2 touchdowns back to back, and the play ends with "Little Giants" being called at MSU's own 48 yardline.  The score:

UM 28 - MSU 24

Mark Dantonio looks on with a stony stare.

 

 

Sunday, October 16:  1:14 AM

Mark Dantonio sits up in bed, sleepless, walks to the kitchen, drinks a glass of water. He stonily stares into the water, contemplating its depths, the coolness of the glass, and a tear runs down his cheek. Those words echo in his mind, the same that he has dreamt of for 10 months..."This is Michigan, fergodsakes".

Comments

BlueBarron

October 11th, 2011 at 2:32 PM ^

I have this stingy, bad feeling about this game for some reason. I feel like a lot of things could go right and/or go wrong. So I'm going to say Michigan-21, MSU-28.

[/THISISNOTACOUNTERJINX]

AA2Denver

October 11th, 2011 at 5:50 PM ^

Shut your mouth! My brain is telling me MSU...but I just can't make that prediction without vomiting.

Honestly, I think the Michigan seniors want to crack some skulls after the past three games. The one thing you could always count on with Bo/Moe/Lloyd was revenge and I'm betting Hoke instills a sense of 'it ends here" in the team this week.

Michigan shuts down MSUs run game and Al opens up his book of spells...Good Guys 21 - Green Envy 13.

B Edwards 17

October 11th, 2011 at 2:44 PM ^

FWIW, basically whole panel on "The Experts" picked MSU to win.

They were basically saying MSU's defense is too good and the home field advantage will be too much to overcome.

My prediction: UM 28 MSU 24

bronxblue

October 11th, 2011 at 2:48 PM ^

UM 31, MSU 21.  I don't see them being able to run the ball and keep Cousins upright as in years past simply because of the line issues.  They'll score points, but UM can work them over with Denard and co., and that defense doesn't scare me nearly as much as the stats would make you believe (OSU, for all of their problems, were in a position to possibly tie or win the game if they had recovered that onside kick). 

AMazinBlue

October 11th, 2011 at 2:51 PM ^

for, on Saturday, the truth that is buried deeply within the statisics, (actualy not so deep at all) that MSU is a paper tiger and their defensive ineptitude will be exposed and their lack of offensive firepower will be revealed.

Here are the basics:

MSU's highly defense is based on stopping one FCS opponent and three very lowly ranked FBS offenses.

Aside from ND, MSU beat up on teams that only score any points at all when playing little sisters of the poor. FAU is ranked 115th in scoring, OSU is 86th and Central is 95th.

Sparty's defense is 74th against the run, again building their stats against team that can't run the ball. FAU (111), OSU (48) and CMU (94).

Also Sparty is only ranked 79th in rushing offense even though they beat teams that had lower than 50th in rushing defense.

I am not impressed.  Bow down lil brother!

Numbers based on CFBSTATS.com

 

Yost Ghost

October 11th, 2011 at 10:13 PM ^

you on this. People are being overly gracious with sparty. I think they're going to be exposed this Saturday. I thought they were overrated last year. I sense UM payback coming in convincing fashion UM 27 MSU 14.

 

BTW you didn't give us your prediction.

 

Edit: Damn you got me! I should have read a little further.

uminks

October 11th, 2011 at 2:52 PM ^

Sparty may take the lead but I think Michigan will come back and win on the last drive of the game. Fourcier almost won it in '09 but I think DROB will win it!

UM 31 vs MSU 28.

 

 

markusr2007

October 11th, 2011 at 2:58 PM ^

The offensive line of France, Foreman, T.Jackson, C. McDonald, Fou Fonati and Co.?

http://michiganstate.scout.com/2/1115616.html

MSU's banged up OL did OK against OSU's DL (no sacks).

But I think MIchigan's defense will play well enough to confront MSU's OL, get some penetration, sacks on Cousins, and more or less control the MSU tailbacks Bell, Baker, Caper and Hill. Michigan's pass coverage has improved a little. They'll give up some big plays to the Cunningham and TEs no doubt, but I think over the full game Michigan's defense will slow down MSU enough.

To me the biggest question is how Michigan can possibly run the ball on this Spartan front 7 (DL: Worthy, Pickelman, Gholston, White and Rush & LBs:Bullough, Allen and Norman)?

MSU's rushing defense is ranked 3rd in the nation right now , 30 ypg.They held Notre Dame to only  114 yards rushing.

I think Michigan has to have a perfect performance from the OL and the running backs to take some of the pressure off of Denard, because they'll be coming for him.

 

AMazinBlue

October 11th, 2011 at 2:59 PM ^

State will lose if for no other reason because they cannot come to grips with who they are, or who they thought they were. The confusion of the Pro Combats will cause them to wonder, are they Bears (Baylor), Buffaloes (Colorado) Domer wannabees, Duck wannabees, or Spartoons.

When it's all over, they will look in the mirror and realize they are still indeed the same ol' sparties.

jackw8542

October 11th, 2011 at 3:03 PM ^

Our D-line will eat MSU's O-line and our offense will get close to its average.  As many have said, MSU has not played anyone except ND with any offense at all (Even against OSU, wasn't it Braxton Miller's first game as a starter?  And in a monsoon?).  ND made MSU's offense look pretty bad, and our offense is better than ND's offense (just my opinion), particularly now that Coach Borges is getting a little more used to what Denard can do best and cannot do so well.  I look forward to a great game plan from a great coaching staff, a superior effort by our team and no back foot throws from Denard.  Go Blue!

jtmc33

October 11th, 2011 at 3:04 PM ^

After a 14-14 halftime score with a 50+ yard td for each side, cheers of "Go Bronze... Go White!" will be few and far between by the late 3rd quarter as UM takes 5 minutes off the clock on the way to a Shaw 6 yard td and a 14 point lead.  Cousins' 2 ints in the 4th lead to a 31-17 final score.

robmorren2

October 11th, 2011 at 3:09 PM ^

I think as long as we keep the turnover margin -1 or better, we win. The only thing that can stop our offense is turnovers. We can also be stopped by running under center repeatedly and getting 0-3 yard gains (see ND game), but I think Borges/Hoke have scrapped those sets. Keep the passes simple, limit turnovers, we win. They are basically Northwestern with a Michael Floyd-ish receiver. They are no ND.

Should Be Working

October 11th, 2011 at 3:14 PM ^

I saw that too, and it was a bit disappointing coming from the "experts". They said that the front seven for MSU would be too strong for Michigan's O-line, and used examples from the OSU game to stregthen their opinions. However, OSU's offense is dreadful, which is ranked 96th in the country. (per ESPN)

My wife who is an OSU fan/alumni, is deeply assuring to me that Michigan will beat MSU handily. She watched the OSU MSU game and swears both teams are wretched and vastly overrated. For once in my life, I hope she's right lol.

When MSU did face a decent or better offense in ND (#8 offense per ESPN), they were shredded, in both phases of offense. ND's offensive line had a much more productive day and gave Rees ample amount of time to find his receivers that were usually pretty open. The turnovers that were created weren't from the MSU defense doing anything extrodinary, but instead, like in Michigan's case, Rees just being careless with the ball. That all being done in a spread offense, in which Michigan can go into at any point.

I think the two biggest factors for Saturday's game are going to be the crowd involvement in the first half and whether Denard executes a better throwing motion. The defense for MSU will give in on the play action and leave pockets open for Denard to throw to. It is just a matter of whether he can get the ball there in a timely fashion. If that happens our run game will exploit the thick ankled linebackers and take out the crowd's entusiasm. I've been to EL for many games, and MSU I honestly believe plays much better with the crowd being rowdy. Scoring first and often will mitigate this immediately.

Also, do not be surprised if Jordan Kovac is used on delayed blitzes throughout the entire game in passing situations. Go back to the fourth down play against Persa, where his helmet came off, and you'll notice JK coming on a very delayed blitz, which created a big gap for him to run through to hit Persa. We have not seen much of this, and I think it will be very effective against Cousins.

With all this being said, I think UofM will win: 38-31

switch26

October 11th, 2011 at 8:21 PM ^

I watched the Experts.. and my god David Pollack has the biggest Fing hardon for Worthy it makes me sick...

 

He kept repeating how Worthy is gonna eat denard for lunch...  Apparently he has never watched denard scramble.. some 300 plus lb slob isn't gonna chase down denard sorry..

At least everyone corrected him and said.. "ya if he can catch him"

He may knock him down when he is passing, but he won't be eating him alive.

 

Im pretty torn on who will win,  cause i don't think MSU's offense is great, but if Denard turns the ball over more than once ill bet we lose..

 

If he doesn't i bet we win, because MSU's offense is too predictable.

 

I don't think our D-Line is gonna own MSU's either..  I hope they do, but im not convinced of it yet.  The first couple possessions should let us know how the game is going to shape up

FreddieMercuryHayes

October 11th, 2011 at 3:25 PM ^

I don't think people are giving MSU's D enough credit.  If we win this game it's gonna because our D kept us in the game I think.  Even though the only good offense MSU has faced beat them 31-13, the MSU D still played pretty well.  ND shredded them the first drive, and then MSU settled and performed.  Of course the KO return for a TD robbed ND of the opportunity to put more yards up, and the muffed punt robbed another drive, but the MSU D was still decent except that ND had Floyd.  I think we can pull it out, but it's going to be a lower scoring game.

UM-21, MSU-17

ThadMattasagoblin

October 11th, 2011 at 3:36 PM ^

they're really not that good.  Look what happened when their defense played a real team on their schedule they let ND score over 30 points against them, and their offense can't move the ball on anybody good either.

Moleskyn

October 11th, 2011 at 4:39 PM ^

If you take away Gray's and Wood's two longest runs, they averaged 3.8 ypc against MSU's defense, and Rees averaged 6.2 ypa in the passing game. Those same RBs averaged just over 5 ypc against us, and Rees averaged just over 8 ypa against us.

You happen to be right about their offense, but I'm guessing you just got lucky on that one.

I would recommend doing some research before posting.

The Man Down T…

October 11th, 2011 at 10:07 PM ^

And if you take away State's sacks and tackles for no gain ND's numbers are higher.  It works both ways.  Taking away something that happened in a game isn't how you define what should happen in other games.  Yes, they gave up 2 big plays to ND.  They will also give up those plays to us.  You have to count them.

 

It's not logical and it's not scientific, but I have a feeling (yes, a feeling) we're going to win this one by 7-10 points.  

mrkid

October 11th, 2011 at 3:41 PM ^

I think Michigan gives up a 1st quarter TD and a 4th quarter TD, but shuts them out in the 2nd and 3rd.

Our offense gets rolling in the 2nd half and we win 24-14. Yes, I'm predicting Gibbons makes a late FG

EGD

October 11th, 2011 at 3:48 PM ^

I think MSU is going to use the same defensive strategy that they used against us last season: load the box and force Denard to throw, hoping his accuracy is off again.  As last week's first half showed, there is a reasonable chance of that happening, at least for part of the game.  I think for this reason that UM may not put up its usual 30+ points, and if we turn the ball over some it could directly lead to MSU points.

On the other hand, I don't see this year's Spartan running game being effective against our front, and I expect Mattison to contain the BJ Cunningham one-man-show with ease.  So, I think this game will be a defensive struggle with a few big plays making the difference in the end.  Unlike Sparty, Michigan has big-play ability in spades.

UM 20, Sparty 13

Medic

October 11th, 2011 at 4:10 PM ^

I find myself unwilling to talk shit about a program that has beaten us three straight times. While I was nervous about the Northwestern game, I am moreso about this one.

The game will live and die with Denard's arm and only his arm because they are going to take away the short passing game and smother the gaps. I am just praying for calm, collected Denard and not "WOOOOOOOO" *overthrow by 10 yards* Denard to start the game.

This will be the bigegst test for the defense too. My guess is they are pouring over the ND game and looking to replicate it (minus the turnovers) because we really weren't stopping ND as much as they were stopping themselves.

So hard to predict, but I will say Sparty takes it by a field goal

MSU 31 - The Good Guys 28

Tyang

October 11th, 2011 at 4:28 PM ^

if we stop Msu's run game we win big! 34-17. if we can't stop Msu's run game its gunna be a long day. Denard will throw 2 picks, but ends up coming big at the end. go blue! hail to the motha effin victors! I will be at a Msu fan's house watching the game, if we don't win, I won't hear the end of it.