UM odds to win BCS Championship versus opposing teams
I am on my annual summer trip to Vegas and checked the odds for UM to win the BCS Championship. UM and some other teams of note:
- OSU - 18 to 5 (pre-season favorite to win)
- Alabama - 4 to 1
- UM - 50 to 1
- MSU - 100 to 1
- UConn - 100 to 1
I LOVE that even though the team is a long shot it is still favored over MSU and UConn!
UM is also favored by 3.5 points over UConn.
August 15th, 2010 at 2:24 AM ^
August 15th, 2010 at 2:33 AM ^
Nope. It means you're favored to win by 3.
August 15th, 2010 at 2:58 AM ^
Well since most betting places give home field a 3 point value, it's basically saying the two teams are equivalent.
August 15th, 2010 at 3:24 AM ^
August 15th, 2010 at 3:59 AM ^
... but we wear our helmets on the road too.
August 15th, 2010 at 4:27 AM ^
True, but you have to remember we get -2 for the maize side panels on the away jerseys.
August 15th, 2010 at 8:32 AM ^
Truly, a picture is worth a thousand words.
August 15th, 2010 at 8:42 AM ^
That girl is holding the same maize key chain with the Victors lyrics on it that the school gave me when I 1st enrolled, I wonder what year that picture was taken.
August 15th, 2010 at 10:45 AM ^
Those keychains are still given out. They are the truly timeless piece of a Michigan education.
August 15th, 2010 at 6:58 AM ^
our home-field advantage will increase by 30%. Not that anybody on the board would EVER take UConn plus the points and root for a narrow Wolverine win, but definitely go with Michigan and give the points.
August 15th, 2010 at 8:47 AM ^
I thought that it truly means that Michigan favored by 3.5 points is the best line so that they can split the betting population so each team gets ~50% of the bets insuring a casino profit no matter who wins after the betting fee is processed.
Typically the home field advantage is worth 3 points they say.
August 15th, 2010 at 4:25 PM ^
it might mean the teams are equivalent, but it doesn't mean the game is a toss up. Home field advantage is one reason why a team might be favored, and line accounts for it. that was my point. why i got negged for that is beyond me.
August 15th, 2010 at 3:13 AM ^
if not your entire savings. that would be literally "All in for Michigan"
August 15th, 2010 at 5:52 AM ^
Welcome to my city. Also, it's only going to be 110 tomorrow, you should be fine! I have placed some bets at the local establishments, but I'm not literally "All In"
August 15th, 2010 at 7:12 AM ^
out of curiousity does anyone remember what we were favored to win by last year against WMU? I know we were favored to win but I don't remember by how much.
August 15th, 2010 at 7:23 AM ^
According to Phil Steele's 2010 CFB preview magazine, UM was a 13 point favorite over WMU last season.
August 15th, 2010 at 9:46 AM ^
The difference between us and UCONN is upside. Oddsmakers (and mgobloggers) recognize that if everything does come together, this team has a lot of potential to be really good. On the flipside, teams like UCONN and little brother are a top 15-25 team if they perform optimally. We just happen to have a lot of question marks, but if all of our unknowns turn out to be positive, we are a very legit team.
August 15th, 2010 at 11:00 AM ^
completely. That was my thinking - UM has the potential to be VERY good, but other teams like MSU and UConn don't have that potential.
Still, I like giving my friends that root for MSU a hard time, telling them Vegas thinks UM is better... Gotta look for something to poke them with after the last two years. Hopefully this year turns the tide.
August 15th, 2010 at 11:04 AM ^
Vegas doesn't "think" anything about the teams' quality. The line is set to entice betters in such a fashion as to make money. The line reflects what Vegas thinks people think about the teams. This has been discussed about a million times on this board.
Now, you can still mock MSU fans about the line (I encourage you to do so). But the line doesn't really reflect who the bookies think is the better team.
August 15th, 2010 at 1:08 PM ^
the line, sure, but this is a odds bet. its not like people are betting the field, are they? Of course odds bets are also affected by perceptions, but not the same way
as far as lines, i would think they start with who they think is the better team, then adjust slightly for perceptions, or just move the line accordingly. thats conjecture though
August 15th, 2010 at 11:08 AM ^
Sorry, it's been a decade since I've been there. Must be needing a fix of cheesy impersonators and M&M's in 50 different colors on my way to place my bet on MICHIGAN...National Champs!
August 15th, 2010 at 12:46 PM ^
And it's because people are more willing to place bets on teams that they support or have a big name. It's why England, the United States, and many Euro teams were both massively overrated in the World Cup.
It'd be pretty cool if we had a 2% chance at winning a national championship, but let's be real, we don't have that good of a chance.
August 15th, 2010 at 5:36 PM ^
I might put a dollar down on those odds but I would kiss it goodbye before I did. I think our odds of going to bowl game are much higher. Say 8 to 1.
Betting always seemed to be pretty tough to me. I mean, you should spend a lot of time on websites like https://livescores.biz analysing results because otherwise it is just impossible to make precise predictions.