UF Offensive Players in Big 10 Terms

Submitted by alum96 on December 6th, 2015 at 8:35 PM

A quick look at UF's offensive players by stats if they played in the Big 10, as we are obviously more familiar with Midwest peeps.  It will be more difficult to define the very good defense - I see WD calling them Northwestern with better athletes... well that's called Ohio State's D which muffled us pretty damn badly.   i.e. Vernon Hargreaves = Jabrill Peppers minus 10 lbs.  aka Northwestern has no such player.  Same with Jonathan Bullard, etc.

 

But offensively it's a good matchup.  It's essentially Penn State.

Big 10 offense doppelganger: PSU

           PSU v UF

  • Total offense: 106 v 109
  • Pass offense: 82 v 78
  • Rush offense: 105 v 113
  • Scoring offense: 101 v 109

 

QB

Treon Harris - 51.9% completion rate (WOOF!), 7.1 ypa, approx 2:1 TD to INT rate.  Total yds would be misleading because he didnt play the whole season.  Also ran for 189 yds.

Big 10 doppelganger:  2014 (not 2015) Mitch Leidner MN .. but less mobile.  51.5% completion rate, 7.6 ypa approx 1.5:1 TD to INT rate.  Also ran for ~400 yds.

 

RB    (note I am not comparing running style - just production)

Kelvin Taylor - 248 carries, 948 yds, 4.0 ave.

Big 10 doppelganger.  Devine Redding IND - 191 carries, 785 yds, 4.1 ave.  Since most of you don't suffer through Indiana games when not watching UM play them, you probably have not seen Devine run much... so the next closest doppelganger is someone very familiar to UM fans.  DeVeon Smith UM - 155 carries, 644 yds, 4.2 ave.

 

WR

77 of 219 (35%) catches of all types (wr, rb, te) went to 2 players of the receiver type.  Now to be complete we have to mention a good # of those catches were passes thrown early in the year by a guy who wasn't a complete coin flip on "complete vs attempt" at QB so their stats were padded some by a legit QB as opposed to Harris.

A) Big play guy: Antonio Callaway (true fr, 5'11") - 30 rec, 603 yds, 20.1 (!!) ave.  

Big 10 doppelganger: shorter and not suspended Leonte Carroo RUT - 39 rec, 809 yds, 20.7 (!!) ave.

B) Possession guy:  Demarcus Robinson (jr, 6'1") - 47 rec, 505 yds, 10.7 ave.

Big 10 doppelganger: taller RJ Shelton MSU - 41 rec, 484 yds, 11.8 ave.

 

TE

Jake McGee (sr) - 41 rec , 381 yds, 9.3 ave. (19% of all completed passes so often used player)

Big 10 doppelganger: Troy Fumagalli WIS (a team purported to still be in the B10) - 26 rec, 277 yds, 10.7 ave.

 

OL

Difficult to tell an OL just from stats but Football Outsiders ranks Florida's OL 89th in the country; UM's is 72nd for comparison.  I believe this was an OL which was self blocking itself in 2014 if memory serves...

 

Stuff

So in summary the FL offense showcases 1 real dangerman in wideout Antonio Callaway (Hi J. Lewis) who looks like a freshman star.   Surrounding said player is the equivalent of 2014 heave and pray Mitch Leidner, one of the lowest ypc Big 10 backs of 2015 (sorry DeVeon!), the 3rd best receiver for MSU, and a safety valve "decent" Wisconsin-ish TE who gets nearly 1 out  of every 5 passes thrown by a UF QB.  (Hi J. Bolden? err... hi Delano Hill)

 

Comments

Avon Barksdale

December 6th, 2015 at 8:38 PM ^

One major issue I see is Treon Harris can run. With this being a bowl game, I foresee several QB designed runs -- especially since JT Barrett just went for over 150 yards on us.

alum96

December 6th, 2015 at 8:52 PM ^

he doesnt seem to run very effectively.  He is basically Jake level shifty; he'll make something out of nothing every so often but is not a "dual threat" dude per se - hell he might be anti dual threat with that arm.. 

And yes I realize QBs are dinged for sacks in rush yds but he is not Braxton Miller or JT Barrett.

RUSHING Stats
YEAR TEAM ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
2015 84 189 2.3 25 0
RUSHING Stats
YEAR TEAM ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
2015 54 137 2.5 23 4

 

Avon Barksdale

December 6th, 2015 at 9:21 PM ^

My concerns is they really haven't run him, because they probably don't have another QB. But I'm concerned in this bowl game they will do more QB design and spread read since we've struggled with it so much.

Just in watching them a couple of times, I think he's a capable runner. They just probably haven't wanted to get him injured in conference play.

bronxblue

December 6th, 2015 at 10:14 PM ^

I've caught two Florida games, and in both Harris "ran" more for his life/when his WRs were covered.  He's not running an offense that really utilizes his legs in the same way, say, OSU does. 

Sure he'll scramble, but I don't think Florida is going to like a game where they try to beat UM with their QB running around.

Danwillhor

December 6th, 2015 at 8:57 PM ^

who's offense can score 21 points. UF fields a defense that rivals anyone from front to back and ours is solid. Their offense is atrocious without the prayer bombs if they can't establish the run and we simply can't run on anyone. We have to win in the air and they have to run the ball while getting something, anything positive in the air.

alum96

December 6th, 2015 at 9:28 PM ^

he looks solid but not as explosive as Butt.  Or at least they dont throw it down the field to him much.

Big 10 TE leaders:

  1. Butt: 48 - 620 - 12.9 ave
  2. Brandon Ligdon MN: 28 - 395 - 14.1 ave
  3. Gethan Carter  NEB: 22 - 297 - 13.5 ave
  4. George Kittle IOW: 20 - 290 - 14.5 ave
  5. Troy Fumagalli WIC: 34 - 278 - 10.7 ave

You can see McGee is a volume receiver but lags all these guys in ave yds per catch - and other than Fumagalli by a not insignificant amount.  The leading TEs for IND and MSU also have significantly higher ypc. 

So he strikes me as a guy who is targeted a ton but is not going to go off on you for YAC like a Butt can or Maxx Williamms of MN last year.   Solid player, gonna get his catches because the offense is built around getting him catches but a 28 yd seam route doesn't seem up his alley.

TheReal_GR3

December 6th, 2015 at 9:21 PM ^

I respect your attempt to compare these players to players in the B1G but since I've actually watched this team I have to say you are pretty far off. Still I don't mean to knock you. I assume you made these comparisions based on stats, not actually skill set. 

I agree that this is a great match-up for the Michigan defense. However, I think Taylor, Callaway and Robinson are all better than there comps. Callaway is a legit problem. He even better than his 20 yards per catch even suggest. The biggest concern is he has gotten better as the year has gone along. While he has been dangerous after the catch all year he is now starting to make contested catches. If he played for OSU he is better than Miller or Marshall, at Michigan he would be our number 1... Actually the only guy I would take over him the B1G plays for MSU. 

Taylor is a good running back. His 4.1 ypc has more to do with a very poor OL, they play two or three freshman. They are all talented but still freshman. Taylor has good vision and I personally like his ability to get small in the hole. He also has pretty good power at 5-10, 205. If you don't know that is Fred Taylor's son. He doesn't run like his father but he has a pretty bright future. 

Robinson is the wild card to me. I don't think we match-up well against him. He is unpredictable in almost everyway. He doesn't always run the right route, has poor ball security and will even drop the ball at times. But he can make guys miss like a smaller WR and has big play ability. His favorite move is a step-back. When he does this he always takes the ball away from his body but the move always works. I can't recall him fumbling but I do remember the number of people he made miss and cutback across the field on. I'm not calling him a good WR, I don't know what he is but I think he is the x-factor for their offense...

The most important player is Harris of course. Harris is a below average runner for a running QB. He is short, struggles to see over the line. He is listed at 5-11, I'm 5-10 I've spoken to him face-to-face, he is shorter than me. I'm not sure who is a comp for him because I don't think he is very good. What he is very good is throwing a very catchable deep ball. Michigan can not drop interceptions and must play strong aganist deep balls. Harris does not throw jump balls so much, he throws deep balls so that his guys can run under it. 

alum96

December 6th, 2015 at 9:40 PM ^

That's fair and yes I am going off stats.

That's said where I disagree is Carroo - a comparison to him is high respekt.  He is being mocked as a 2nd to 3rd round NFL draft and that is with all the baggage he carries off the field.  So I've just compared a guy with 30 catches in his life at college level to a projected 2nd-3rd round senior.  That's very high respect.  Carroo obliterated MSU's D with a mediocre QB throwing him balls - I think he is >> Burbridge in athleticism. 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2016/WR

And rbs its hard to compare styles, because obviously they are all different.  Not saying guy runs like Smith - but production is production.  To that end, Saquon Barkley has just as bad an OL with a QB who is lost (Hack is completing like 53% of his passes not much different than Harris) and Barkely is averaging well over 6 ypc.  UF guy is at 4.0.  That's 50% better production per carry for a similarly pathetic offense ranked 100th-ish at PSU... not that different than UFs.

So a better back - even with LOL OL like PSU has - would produce nearer to 5 IMO.  Also Harris had a much better QB the 1st half of the year so defenses could not just stack the box the first 5-6 games or whatever it was.  That's not to say he is slow like Smith etc - I am just comparing production.

As for Harris I agree - he reminds me of 2014 Tommy Armstrong and 2014 Leidner.  We saw 2015 Leidner threw jump balls up for grabs and our DBs simply did not make plays.  I am sure they will see that film and try it on us as well!  Esp since I think we''ll do a good job stuffing their run game (not Bama level stuff of them but PSU level stuffing)

 

alum96

December 6th, 2015 at 10:00 PM ^

Better than Carroo already?  Well in that case we are doomed in 2017 as he will be a 3rd year player, true junior on his way to being a top 10 pick in the draft.  And we'll be matching him up with Keith Washington and Sir Patrick Scott.  :D

Amazing dude was a 3* and already tearing up SEC...

http://247sports.com/player/antonio-callaway-49719

p.s. who do you see as the best 2-3 other defensive players outside the 2 I listed above.

getsome

December 6th, 2015 at 10:54 PM ^

you werent asking me but my opinion:

the rest of their D is all around solid (obviously).  id have a tough time saying whos "best" after their top players at each level of D (hargraves, bullard and morrison).  both LBs are good (and they have decent depth) but morrison makes more plays and leads their D.  they have a nice rotation of big bodies up front (similar to michigan, few legit stars who terrorize all game but all solid players) including 54 and 94 and the 2 safeties are athletic dudes and typically stout in run support.  im sure some fans recall the name jalen tabor from when hoke recruited - hes a big, aggressive DB who seems to get most reps as 3rd CB.  

not necessarily stacked with early round draft picks (other than those names mentioned) but theyre fast, aggressive, hard hitting and rock solid at every level

TheReal_GR3

December 7th, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^

Haha. I like the joke. I know I could be wrong and again I've seen him in person so that impact my thoughts. I do think he is really talented. My thoughts on him also include the fact that when we see him I expect him to be much better. The month of practice and prep for a freshman could be a big deal to get him healthy and mentally prepared. 

As for the P.S. I think you are asking about Florida right? I'll list some players but I won't put them in order. 

LB #3 Antonio Morrison is their leader. He had a SERIOUS knee injury last year but is an NFL player. Probably a 3rd round player but will slip due to the injury history. 12 TFL, 97 tackles 

LB #40 Jarrad Davis will fly all over the field and stick you. If we had these two LB's we go undefeated. 11 TFL, 94 tackles 

DL #90 Jonathan Bullard. Big and strong. I think he is their best defensive lineman. Very good aganist the run and pass. Probably a late 1st round pick. 6.5 sacks

DL #14 Alex MCCalister - 6'6" 239. Yea you read that right. For a defensive end. He looks like a WR, I saw him walking around and thought he was a wideout so I asked who he was and I was told he was a DE. Yikes! He has one move, Speed but it works. 9.5 TFL, 6.5 sacks. He is their BUCK. I think he missed the SEC Championship game due to injury. 

DB's #1 Vernon Hargreaves, #31 Jalen Tabor, #6 Quincy Wilson and #24 Brian Poole Combined for 10 INT's and 33 PBU's. Poole plays corner and safety. Vernon might be the first corner drafted this year Tabor and Wilson are SO but Tabor is a future 2nd rounder to me. Tabor started all last year too. I thought Hargreaves played poorly in the SEC Championship. He plays more off coverage than Lewis but they are almost the very same at the point of the catch. They attack the ball on break-ups. The difference is Hargreaves is faster and he will attempt to bait you.He does this a lot on deep routes. Letting guys get 2 steps and depending on his speed and a poor throw to make up the difference. Sometimes it works and other times it doesn't.  Oh and he plays the right side. Doesn't flip much. Hargreaves is also a very good tackler. 

Does that answer your question? 

EGD

December 6th, 2015 at 9:59 PM ^

Callaway is more talented than Carroo and a much better runner after the catch. Carroo is a better route-runner and technical receiver, as you would expect when comparing a true freshman to a senior. Callaway is also a dangerous returner on special teams.

bronxblue

December 6th, 2015 at 10:30 PM ^

It's going to be even worse?

Florida might well turn it around a bit offensively, but it's been months now of offensive troubles, and unless Grier is coming back I don't see that changing dramatically.  It's still a team that struggles to run the ball and relies heavily on its defense to keep the game close.  I trust that Harbaugh, with a month to prepare, can find the holes in the defense and do enough to win, regardless of whatever improvements UF does offensively.

Michigan4Life

December 6th, 2015 at 9:28 PM ^

Kelvin Taylor is a really good back. He's way better than Redding and De'Veon. He gets zero help from the OL run blocking and shitty QB play. He's their offense and defense just load up the box to stop him

Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

alum96

December 6th, 2015 at 9:53 PM ^

I know but you always build up everyone UM plays to giant heights ;)

Looking at his game log here are the "top 25" defenses he faced:

  • Ole Miss, 27 car - 83 yds, 3.1 ave
  • Missouri, 29 car - 99 yds, 3.5 ave
  • LSU, 15 car - 25 yds, 1.7 ave
  • Georgia, 25 car - 125 yds, 4.8 ave
  • Vandy (yes FEI 11 Defense), 17 car - 47 yds, 2.8 ave
  • FSU, 24 car - 136 yds, 5.7 ave
  • Bama, 7 car - 8 yds, 1.1 ave

So that's 7 of his 12 games.  Throw out Bama which is an outlier.

He had one game he ave > 5.0.  He had 4 where he ave 3.5 or less.

Dude is a workhorse.  He is going to get fed 25x this game.  We could f*** it up like FSU but aside from that 1 game he was very containable and in many games mediocre in production.  Howard and Elliott came into our games with much better production as did Barkley.  Utah's Booker was also better. 

Just my take looking at #s.  I would expect something like 3.5 a carry on 25 carries so lets say 88 yds.  So he will get a good # - maybe even 100 yds but its going to take a boatload of carries to get there.  He is not that home run threat like the big 3 we faced this year at rb.

gwkrlghl

December 6th, 2015 at 9:31 PM ^

100% more badass Tongan Fullbacks

And on a serious note, in what is likely going to be a punting exhibition, Blake O'Neill looks like he might be the biggest advantage we have. I look for him to give the fake punt run another shot in this one. Florida's special teams didn't look so hot yesterday

alum96

December 6th, 2015 at 9:43 PM ^

Yep "better athletes" make a huge difference.  I expect our O to again not be able to run at all and depend on Air Jake. 

But NW DB doesnt have athletes like Hargreaves back there.  It's going to be like facing OSU's D.  But thankfully not OSU's O.  Just glad we avoided Ole Miss - I think that might have been a frightful event for our D.