Turnover Stats for PSU Game

Submitted by PeterKlima on October 16th, 2017 at 5:15 PM

Maybe not a surprise, but the PSU game will come down to one thing IMO = turnovers.  The turnover battle is so important for this game because:

1.  Penn State is SECOND in the country in turnover margin. That may "over-inflate" their score margin in victories.

2.  Michigan is 95TH and very close to the bottom. Of course, the QBs interceptions have made our games look much worse in final score.

3.  Penn State needed a real miracle to beat Iowa.  It was the only game in which they had a negative turnover margin all year.

4.  Michigan lost one game -- by 4 points -- this year and it was a -5 turnover game.

While fumbles may be somewhat random, interceptions are not IMO.  As long as we can keep it on the ground and force PSU to air it out, our chances of a positive turnover margin improves.

In Michigan's favor, the Wolverine running game is improving and its reliance on the passing game might be able to go down.  And, the weather should be dry/good on Saturday.  If O'Korn doesn't throw a pick, we win.  That's a big IF.

 

 

Comments

UMich2016

October 16th, 2017 at 5:18 PM ^

Devin Bush will be Barkley's kryptonite.  Bush said in an interview today that hes responsible for spying Barkley all game.  What a fun matchup that will be!

Yes, we need turnovers and a touchdown from our D or Special Teams and we can win this game.

 

Hard-Baughlls

October 16th, 2017 at 5:39 PM ^

Totally hypothetical thought experiment question, but...

If Baker Mayfield is currently the Michigan QB, are we good enough to compete for a national championship this year?

I ask this because I still think we have obvious weaknesses on the O-line, and despite being absurdly talented, the recievers are still very young and unpolished.

Would Mayfield's magic, along with an improved running game, and our dominant defense make UM a real contender, or would it still be O-line doom?

Fyodor MikHAILovich

October 17th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^

Baker Mayfield? Man, this team would be good enough to compete for a national championship if Jake Rudock is currently the Michigan QB--they'd be undefeated, they'd have a monster D, and they'd have a smart QB whom I could never imagine ending three drives in a row with interceptions (yes, I know, not all of those were on JOK, but three drives in a row???).

You can win a championship without blowing out every other team on the schedule. This team deserves to be ranked in the teens. A reliable QB would put them solidly in the top ten if not top three or four.

Hank Scorpio

October 16th, 2017 at 5:57 PM ^

Penn State will put 8 men in the box and dare us to throw the ball. O’Korn is a one read guy and the receivers have not been particularly adept at getting open either.

I predict a field goal fest and what amounts to a tossup game. I don’t think Penn State is quite as good as they are ranked.

iamnumber1fan

October 16th, 2017 at 6:00 PM ^

I mean, why wouldn't they? That means that O'korn is going to have to throw it and that is clearly going to open himself up to mistakes.  If we have no turnovers, that would be great. I'm not convinced that would mean a victory because I think we are going to have a hard time sustaining drives. If we punt every 3, 4 or 5 plays we could still win the turnover battle and lose the game. I hope that is not the case. Winning the turnover battle is usually a good indicator because teams with an offense will turn that into points...and our offense is pretty offensive. 

 

Leonhall

October 16th, 2017 at 6:20 PM ^

Is going to need to throw the ball accurately for us to win. He's not going to be able to pass for 58 yards and expect a W. He will need to throw for over 100 and we are going to need the same rushing attack as against IU for us to have a chance

goblufucabuc

October 16th, 2017 at 6:40 PM ^

Done Deal....With O'Korn it's just a matter of time!! 6 weeks into the season and the line is still missing blocks, going the wrong way on plays, no main receiver, then you add HPY VALY at night, the defense finally breaks... I hope I'm wrong but we'll see..

PeterKlima

October 16th, 2017 at 6:51 PM ^

He just needs to manage the game. He said as much in his presser. That is what the coaches want. All he has to do is protect the ball and keep them honest with the occasional pass. out defense, run game and special teams can win the game.

BlueKoj

October 16th, 2017 at 7:31 PM ^

Game managers avoid delay of games. They get young players in position to avoid procedure penalties. They hit a lot of check downs. They avoid sacks and INT by throwing away the ball safely and on time. They make nothing when the D gives nothing and often don’t even try to make more. Again, they’re aware of clock, downNdistance, game theory and personnel.

JOK doesn’t fit any of those. Even the negative of a game manager. His only upside is he has made critical plays from nothing. Too few and far between for this team. This team needs 2015 Alex Smith. UM would win the B1G with 2015 Alex Smith and lose to Bama this year. — then beat Bama next year.

BlueKoj

October 16th, 2017 at 10:05 PM ^

The MSU bar was so low it is not a compelling argument. I would say he didn’t improve vs IN except in number of INTs. His vision, decision making, and poor throws were nearly as bad or the same. The vagaries of CFB just didn’t result in 3 picks. I wonder if the time it would take him to improve is any less than BP. Is his floor higher? His ceiling surely isn’t.

I’m sure we’ll see another data point Saturday. I hope it proves me a pessimist.

UMfan21

October 16th, 2017 at 6:49 PM ^

disagree about randomness of INTs. yes, many of our INT have been bad reads, poor throws, and otherwise questionable decisions. however, tipped passes ARE random IMO, and we've had a few of those as well. as always, there are multiple variables.

I would say in general, if a pass is tipped (including through the WR hands), it's random. If it's a clean INT, it is not.

SD Larry

October 16th, 2017 at 6:51 PM ^

about this season.  We need steady qb play, take better care of the football,  and see our young defense to force some turnovers to win.  With a half a season under their belt, the time is right.  We might be due for a few fumbles to go our way too.  Hopeful. 

Indiana Blue

October 16th, 2017 at 8:15 PM ^

2 years ago (2 to 1) and still won 28 - 16.  However - be MUCH MORE CONCERNED about the ridiculous penalty discrepancy.  In 2015 it was 13 to 3.  At IU last week it was 16 to 5 (and that is only only counting 1 of the 3 penalties called on just 1 play ... which is fucking bullshit).

The msu game had a TD called back on a hold that only gets called against us ... that would never get called on osu ... and you all know that's true.

So yeah ... turnovers always have an impact ... but watch out for the zebras on Saturday night.

Go Blue!