Maybe not a surprise, but the PSU game will come down to one thing IMO = turnovers. The turnover battle is so important for this game because:
1. Penn State is SECOND in the country in turnover margin. That may "over-inflate" their score margin in victories.
2. Michigan is 95TH and very close to the bottom. Of course, the QBs interceptions have made our games look much worse in final score.
3. Penn State needed a real miracle to beat Iowa. It was the only game in which they had a negative turnover margin all year.
4. Michigan lost one game -- by 4 points -- this year and it was a -5 turnover game.
While fumbles may be somewhat random, interceptions are not IMO. As long as we can keep it on the ground and force PSU to air it out, our chances of a positive turnover margin improves.
In Michigan's favor, the Wolverine running game is improving and its reliance on the passing game might be able to go down. And, the weather should be dry/good on Saturday. If O'Korn doesn't throw a pick, we win. That's a big IF.