Transfers, Open Spots, Needs, Changes
Recruiting is an art, not a science. It appears that Michigan has made a tremendous start under Hoke and Mattison.
If I understand the numbers correctly, Michigan currently has 17 scholarships available, and has received 8 verbal commitments, leaving 9 available to give. There are currently close to 150 offers on the table. I would almost assume that the remaining 5 LB offers listed will be pulled, except for the slim possibility of a 5 star committing. In fact, I believe I read elsewhere that Ross adjusted his timetable up, given that 3 LB's had already committed.
Given needs, I would also assume the following:
- 2 offensive linemen
- 2 defensive ends
- 1 nose tackle
- 1 defensive tackle
- 1 quarterback
- 1 cornerback
- 1 safety
- 1 running back
- 2 receivers
That adds up to 12 more, which would put us 3 over.
So, do we expect 3 more transfers out? Do we not extend a 5th year to several more guys? Are there several needs above that aren't as critical and go unfilled? Do we move around bodies of guys currently on the team to fill some of the needs?
As the class fills up, how much pressure does this put on guys holding offers to commit? And how many so called "offers" are "commitable?" I read here that there was the possibility of several more transfers out. Is that still the case, or no?
Looking at the current offers, I'd love to see the following:
- Kiel, QB
- Thompson, TE
- Dunn, RB
- Burbridge, WR
- Diamond, OL
- Watson, OL
- Wormey, DE
- Ojemudia, DE
- Godin, DT
- Richardson, CB
That would put us at 18, which seems reasonable, given attrition, etc. I think that Kiel and Dunn are the least likely to come to Michigan, but one can hope. Thoughts, corrections, to our needs and likely commitments?
True. Feagin kind of took Wienke's place, although...not for long.
Honestly, having 3 QBs is not sufficient, we should bring in one every year. When you only have three total QBs, you're still too close to trouble. What if one of them gets hurt? What if one of them gets in trouble or has grade issues? What if one of them just isn't very good? What if one of them can't grasp the playbook? There are too many things that could happen and QB is just too important. At any other position on the team you can move a guy or you carry so many that it's not a problem. But QB is the only one so vital, you need to have multiple good QBs on the team at any given time.
I have a post going up at TTB soon (as soon as there's a day that something newsworthy doesn't happen) that breaks down how scholarships should be handed out. The numbers say that approximately 3.75 scholarships should be used per starting position. So I'm not sure why we would skimp on QUARTERBACK when everyone's so gung-ho about all these linebackers that are committing in droves. We've got 13 linebackers on schedule to be here in 2012, which means TEN scholarship dudes will be sitting on the bench at any given time.
It's kind of a ridiculous contradiction, as if getting a fifth-string weakside linebacker is more important than getting a fourth-string quarterback. I'm sorry, but getting a decent QB in this class is oodles more important than securing Kaleb Ringer's commitment. Let's keep things in perspective.
Here's the story:
- We have 83 on the roster now with 14 graduating, meaning we can add 16 without impacting anyone's scholarship.
- Cox, T. Robinson, Roundtree, Moore, Barnum, Mealer, Omameh, Khoury, Demens, Kovacs, Floyd, & Morales are potential fifth years and don't have to be invited back.
- Kovacs and (I think) Morales are walkons with scholarships. Walkon scholarships aren't guaranteed year-to-year so those players could conceivably come back for fifth years by paying their own way, and still play.
- Rumor out that D. Williamson might transfer (I'm not asking him to leave, just adding another variable).
Based on this information it still seems likely that they could reasonably get to 20 scholarships if the class warranted it (even 21 if a last minute elite wanted to join).
I have a feeling that Kovacs will have a scholarship through next year if he wants one. You don't take a two-year starter (or three if he starts again in 2011) and toss him by the wayside if he wants to keep playing. Unless something changes, I'm counting him as a used scholarship.
I don't disagree with you. I'm merely pointing out the flexibility that the staff has. I assume not renewing fifth years would be the first choice before taking away a starter's scholarship.
I know Kovacs isn't the best athletically, but the coaches sure seem to like him. It seems only fair for him to be rewarded with another scholarship. iirc, loyalty is one of those perceived "Michigan" values, and I would be shocked for him not to be rewarded.
Kovacs has earned his keep, and has far too many naysayers. There are always a few gamers out there who more than earn their keep, and he is one of them.
I agree. In my opinion Kovacs has earned his 5th year weather he is a starter this year or not. He was a starter and for that reason big part of our team for 2 years. We should reward his hard work and if he wants to come back I would give it to him. We have other players that we could not give a 5th year before him.
Morales was given a strange scholarship in Carr's last half class, but I don't think he has been counted as a scholarship player since that year. Could be wrong on that. He is a very high academic kid and could have earned a scholarship that way. Kovacs of course was a walk on but as Magnus has pointed out he will be able to come back if he wants to - and he will....
I'm pretty sure that players on academic scholarships count against the 85 scholarship limit.
Yes, any player with a scholarship for any reason - academic, track, basketball, etc. - counts against the 85-scholarship limit. That's how the NCAA prevents shady things from happening with scholarships.
I believe Rodriguez reneged on the offer Carr had given Morales, but Morales decided to come to Michigan, anyway. I doubt he's earned a scholarship at any point since Pomarico has been our long snapper and will be again this year, but that's not exactly public information.
I think he gray shirted. He was one of the strangest commitments in the past several years.
According to something I read behind a paywall recently from someone close to the staff. Seems like the above analysis pretty reasonable. Whenever we go through this and use numbers like 17 or 18 I think we're probably not being all that accurate.
Edit: Analysis from UM hero that is.
Every scholarship is year to year. Technically they are right even if it is somwhat of a moral dilema for us. Would you want to pull a kid's scholarship because he didn't perform the way you were hoping when you recruited him?
I wonder if some of the playing time in the spring game was a hint to some players. I remember two players who hardly saw the field- Gallon and V. Smith. Gallon looked pretty mad when he was coming off the field after the game.
I will be pretty surprised if Gallon is still on the roster after 2011...heck, I think there is a good chance he will leave before the 2011 season starts.
NOTE: I am NOT saying I want Gallon (or any other current UM player) to leave. I just think it is a pretty good possibility that he will.
I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere but if I was thinking about someone that hasn't pulled his weight so to speak it would have to be Brendon Gibbons. If Matt Wile comes in this fall and tears it up then I think Gibbons might decide to move on.
That seems unlikely. He's got a scholarship to the greatest University in the world. Why would he leave and probably have to pay his way somewhere else. It's doubtful another school would offer him a scholarship based on his performance here.
Huge gap between Gardner and Bellomy. Even if you assume the redshirt shift, we could easily have taken a blue chip QB in the 2012 recruiting class no problem. Best Case (for UM) Senior Redshirt Gardner is completing with 2012 Redshirt Soph Bellomy and Redshirt Fresh Bluechip. Then in 2015 Redshirt Soph Blue Chip competes with Redshirt Junior Bellomy.
In the worst case for UM, no redshirt for Gardner, and we are wishing we had a blue chip redshirt Fresh to compete with Bellomy in 2014.
But, I think that the ability to lure a bluechip QB is low, until the season starts and "Gorgeous" Al Borges shows off how well he can adapt to any talent offered to him.
My hope is that Denard and Junior explode starting with the Western game, then ND is really really important, since many young high school prospects will be watching.
Then maybe we take that blue chip WR and QB. If not, then we'll have a big gap in the offense behind Gardner.
The coaching staff has done a really nice job putting together this class.
Couldn't agree more. Hoke and Co. are doing a great job and everyone I talk to, from high school coaches, to recruits, to former players, and even to rival coaches in the NCAA, has nothing but positive things to say about what a class act they are.
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I really like your list. Obviously most of us are able to zero in on the possibles the further this process goes along and you wish list almost matches mine.
If you are looking for a WR consider Dwayne Stanford from Cincinnatti Taft. He and Washington are considered a possible package deal. We have offered and he is an elite outside threat.
I also think Mario Ojemudia is a strong DE candidate.
If we were to finish with the class that you describe and include Stanford and Ojemudia that would give us 24 recruits and an average Star ranking of 3.88. If you look at last year's class rankings on Scout that would be the number 1 class and top five almost any year.
http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=9&c=14&yr=2011
Obviously, it's unlikely we will finish with 24 recruits, but it seems we have a chance with all of the players mentioned. I really don't think a "Mega Class" is out of the question.
Ya i have trouble editing my previous posts on my computer for some reason. My updated list included an insert discussing Stanford (but was removed for being redundant haha) as I really like this kids potential and would LOVE to get him since that means we got Washington. Yeah 24 recruits is probably too many but i think 21-22 is about what I would guess so if we lost out on a few of these guys it would be an amazing class anyways. I agree the "Mega Class" is seeming much more realistic recently. I like Ojemudia I am just not sure he fills a need if we get the other guys on this list. if we don't get one of the others which is very possible he isn't a plan B he is a plan 2A which is great. As for your average scout ranking that is awesome I didn't add that up at all but you are right that would guarantee a top 5 class just about every year. As for where our recruiting class stands now, I have read who everyone is putting us "behind" and "ahead" of and I would like to point out that ND has put together some big time recruits so far and although they don't have as many as us yet they are the team I would definitely add to an early top 10 list so far. Who on my list would you consider to be the biggest long shot, from what I know I would have to say it is probably Banner or O'Brien at this point honestly. I know Pike, Dunn and Washington are considered unlikely by a lot of people but I am being told we have strong possibilities with all 3.
I think O'Brien and Pike sound like the longest shots to me. O'Brien because he has never suggested that he was likely and Pike because, despite Barnett's twitter clue, he's already committed elsewhere.
Regarding O'Brien, I think Ondre Pipkins would fill that spot nicely. Even though I think O'Brien is more of a 3 Tech while Pipkins is a 1 Tech.
Pike could be replaced with one of the many unoffered 3 Stars like Appleby, O'Connor, or Kelly. And then we could focus on Morris for next year.
Pike may not be likely to commit hear per say. But I am VERY confident that he will not sign a LOI with Auburn. As for Pipkins, I have seen a few things on tape that make me believe he may actually be able to be very effective in a 3 Tech. Possibly even better than O'Brien actually.
I would suspect we have 2-3 more transfers by the end of this season from RR's tweener group.
Not saying they arent good, just that some of those kids may find it harder to crack the 2 deep when there constantely playing out of position by being too big or too small and with the amount of kids coming in that slot into 1 specific position, they may see the writing on the wall.
Assuming that I would think a class of 22-23 would be reasonable.
Regarding Pike, I fully agree with Magnus that we need another QB on the roster, but I'm not convinced we need a five star candidate. With DG here, and supposedly a great QB recruit in Michigan coming up in 2013, I wonder if we'd be fine with a 2 - 3 star guy for depth, but not necessarily someone who is going to start.
I continue to be concerned about candidates for wide receiver, but we'll see what's up with that.
I have very mixed feelings about O'Brien. Part of me feels that he has had enough info, and if he doesn't really want to be at Michigan, why should we pursue him.
Regarding the Offensive line, have we received positive feedback from Simmons, Banner, and Denman? If two of those three came to Michigan in addition to Diamond and the guys who have alreeady committed, it would be great.
The reason I want Pike so much is 1 I feel like he has the potential to push DG. 2 I feel like he is a lot like Ryan Mallett after watching him on tape except his arm is not quite as strong, but his footwork and ability to scramble are MUCH better. but 3 is that i truly believe that he would help take care of both of our concerns at the WR position. I truly believe that pike would get a big time WR to come here with him and WR is one of the easiest positions to scout and generally the top rated prospects translate the best to the college game.
As for O'Brien, I agree whole heartedly. If he does not want to come here then we should move on, but I haven't heard that he doesnt yet so I'm not going to assume that his silence is a bad thing. When i hear we are low on his list, I will move on, but until then no news isn't bad news just means he focused on school or basketball or what not.
As for the OL. I have very good sources concerning Denman and I have heard we are definitely in the running although there is no leader at the moment. I also have a few good bits of info regarding Simmons, he is believed to be visiting AA for an official visit so that should give us a chance. It will depend on it he hates the cold like McClure did or loves Ann Arbor and is enamored with everything from the coaches to the Big House like Barnett was on his first visit last year.
As for Banner, I honestly don't know that much. Just know he is a very smart kid, whose coach talked to Tom and I am extremely impressed with everything about him so I added him to my extremely optimistic wish list.
Do you have anything interesting to add to anything else on my list?
We won't find out if DG get's his medical redshirt until after his 4th year is done. If he doesn't get it and you wait until 2013 to grab a top QB, you have the choice of starting a 3rd-4th year 3* or a 2nd year 5*. It's better to play it safe and grab the best QB you can. They will know what they are walking into. They will be ready to either beat out DG or wait until he's gone to start.
I want feedback on my current wish list. Yes, its very optimistic but we just killed Bin Laden did we not? Also i realize there are too many names on this list but these are some of the guys i really like looking at tape. I included a little bit of the information that I have collected from some trusted sources and a few of these kids I have talked to over the phone as well.
QB- Zeke Pike. I like what I have heard from Barnett lately and with all the NCAA investigations and their recent comments about their other QB commit i never believed he would end up signing his LOI at Auburn. Adding Ross and the others that have recently commited could start that MEGA class he was talking about. So lets hope Barnett wasn't talking about the derby.
(Also would be thrilled with Kiel but think that is much less likely.)
RB- Bri'Onte Dunn. This is very wishful thinking as well, but again, NCAA investigations at tOSU could play a major factor and the fact that he is visiting and our depth chart at this position must be very appealing.
(Greg Garmon was also considered and would love to see him go blue.)
WR- No one is standing out right now so thats where I will leave a blank. Heres to hoping we can get a big time QB who could bring along a big WR with him. Or I should also point out that Stanford would be a package deal if we do in fact get Washington.
TE-Ron Thompson or no one. Don't think I need to explain why.
OL-
Jordan Diamond. This commit wont come for a while but I feel as though he is basically a Michigan silent commit who wants to attract attention for teammates and take his free visits. Love the way this kid plays and looks on film though.
Jordan Simmons. Extremely optimistic here but I have heard lately that we have a very good shot to get a visit. If we can get a kid to fly out from CA, who says staying close to home isn't important, and has a mentor who is a former Michigan player, I will take an outside chance that he could end up being a HUGE commit.
J.J. Denman- Visited for the spring game. From what I have heard it will come down to us Penn State and Notre Dame. I have been told from people I trust that Michigan is definitely getting a visit, and "would have to like our chances at this very early moment." The closer a commit is to home the more information I can get about them.
Zach Banner- The most optimistic guy on this board. I love every single thing I have seen on tape from this kid, and have been impressed with every single thing I have heard come out of his mouth. He is a great football player and would make for an amazing Michigan Man but I truly thing Michigan has a long way to go if they want to get this kid to commit. Right now I have heard we are in a discussion for a visit though so that is a big first step.
DE-
Chris Wormely. Everyone knows who he is unless they live under a rock or are new here. Great kid, great talent, longtime Michigan fan. Michigan lean and with everything coming out about tOSU I cant believe he won't commit blue. Have heard recently that he may have moved up his timeline to commit as well but this is passed on with hesitation as we don't know what his exact timetable was in the first place.
Adolphus Washington- A lot like Dunn, he was considered to be an tOSU lock just a few months ago. Now here we are and he is saying his recruitment is wide open and says he likes everything he has heard from michigan. Michigan wouldn't be recruiting him so hard if we had no chance and again the NCAA investigations could play a major role. Everything I have heard tells me that this kid is a winner who would be "extremely unlikely to commit somewhere where he couldn't play in bowl games." This is a wish list not a likely to commit list but I think this is becoming more and more possible by the day.
Pharaoh Brown- Love this kid. Michigan leads. Enough said.
(Would like to make this a complete WISH LIST by adding Noah Spence to this list. He is a long shot at the moment but who knows we are still in the running for an official.)
DT-
Sheldon Day- We currently lead. But he wants to commit later in the process so a lot could change in that amount of time. Really would love to see this kid go blue as I am extremely impressed by the way he moves for a tackle.
Matthew Godin- As a C.C. grad I would love to see this kid go blue. Great player, great person, great family. Very confident he is the silent commit just to stop the doubts above about who that may be.
For the third spot I'm going to hedge my bet and say I want one of the next two:
Ondre Pipkins. He is from Michigan and at the moment I believe we lead. His tape shows that he is a beast and I saw him play a few times when he was younger and knew immediately that he is a SMART football player.
Danny O'Brien. I think we still have a good shot at O'Brien even though Tenn leads at the moment. We haven't heard much lately but that is for other reasons. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see him join his friend Godin and go blue eventually.
CB and S:
Terry Richardson. The Ross commitment made me feel great about our chances here. He was in studio to watch Ross commit. With RJS and Ross going blue, the fact that although his recruitment is wide open there is no leader that is said to be ahead of us like with O'Brien, and the fact that he went to Cass Tech, I love our chances to land him.
Wayne Morgan- I think we have a great shot at getting this kid. He says it is us and Rutgers at the top of his list at the moment and we are the ones who have been making up ground which is good. Think this kid is a true safety.
(To make this a dream list i will add that I have heard interesting things about Deon Bush lately. Nothing earth shattering that makes me think we lead or even have a great shot but I will say that he is suddenly becoming a long shot in my mind instead of being completely unrealistic.)
Reposting the same thing over and over again is more likely to annoy the shit out of people than warrant insightful responses.
Sorry my computer has problems with editing previous posts on here. I'm somewhat new to this exact site my bad. Any idea how many points are needed so that I don't have to type in a verification code every post I make? And how many points are needed to post topics?
Not many people seem to be talking about free safety, but I believe we are in desparate need of a 6'1" speedster who can hit. He doesn't need to have great hips, but we need an eraser at Free safety and there isn't anyone on the roster who can do that, except maybe Woolfolk if he is 100%, but he is done after this year and is probably playing cornerback anyway. Our current crop of safeties are slow. It kills me we lost Vinopal.
we're taking 2 WRs this year? (You know, barring the caveat for every position that is "unless a 5* throws himself at us").
We do need to take 1-2. We have 8 of our receivers leaving over the next two years and if we don't take any we will have only taken 3 receivers over our last 3 recruiting classes, 1 of which is a TE now and another which is rumored to be considering a transfer.
I 100% agree with you on the Safety position. I think Jarrod Wilson - OH (#10 S) and Wayne Morgan - NY (#19 S) might be our best options, although these guys clearly are not Michigan leans. I fail to understand why we have such a hard time in Michigan producing top quality at the Safety position. I sure hope we coach the hell out of these guys in the Summer!
Wayne Morgan actually has us at the top of his list with Rutgers, and we've been gaining ground lately. While not technically a "Michigan lean" I guess, I think we're in good position there. I mean Rutgers v. Michigan? Srsly now.
Yeah...well...we thought the Michigan name would help us in the battle for Rashad Knight, too, but he chose Rutgers, anyway...