Transfers, Open Spots, Needs, Changes

Submitted by StephenRKass on May 2nd, 2011 at 11:57 AM

Recruiting is an art, not a science. It appears that Michigan has made a tremendous start under Hoke and Mattison.

If I understand the numbers correctly, Michigan currently has 17 scholarships available, and has received 8 verbal commitments, leaving 9 available to give. There are currently close to 150 offers on the table. I would almost assume that the remaining 5 LB offers listed will be pulled, except for the slim possibility of a 5 star committing. In fact, I believe I read elsewhere that Ross adjusted his timetable up, given that 3 LB's had already committed.

Given needs, I would also assume the following:

  1. 2 offensive linemen
  2. 2 defensive ends
  3. 1 nose tackle
  4. 1 defensive tackle
  5. 1 quarterback
  6. 1 cornerback
  7. 1 safety
  8. 1 running back
  9. 2 receivers

That adds up to 12 more, which would put us 3 over.

So, do we expect 3 more transfers out? Do we not extend a 5th year to several more guys? Are there several needs above that aren't as critical and go unfilled? Do we move around bodies of guys currently on  the team to fill some of the needs?

As the class fills up, how much pressure does this put on guys holding offers to commit? And how many so called "offers" are "commitable?" I read here that there was the possibility of several more transfers out. Is that still the case, or no?

Looking at the current offers, I'd love to see the following:

  1. Kiel, QB
  2. Thompson, TE
  3. Dunn, RB
  4. Burbridge, WR
  5. Diamond, OL
  6. Watson, OL
  7. Wormey, DE
  8. Ojemudia, DE
  9. Godin, DT
  10. Richardson, CB

That would put us at 18, which seems reasonable, given attrition, etc. I think that Kiel and Dunn are the least likely to come to Michigan, but one can hope. Thoughts, corrections, to our needs and likely commitments?

 

Comments

Magnus

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:01 PM ^

We need to take AT LEAST five offensive lineman, and the coaches have told recruits that they want to get six.

We don't need any running backs.  We have 8.

GoBlueInNYC

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:10 PM ^

Not that this has any real bearing on the rest of Michigan's class, but didn't Hoke say at some press conference that you always want to recruit running backs regardless of need because they're usually the most athletic guy on their high school team?

Could be he likes them as kind of a safety-net reserve sort of player, "oh shit, we're out of X-position, throw Y-RB in there and teach him the ropes." Basically, that they could see the field at any number of positions, so it's good to keep them around just in case.

joeyb

May 2nd, 2011 at 6:50 PM ^

We took no wide receivers last year and 3 the year before. Miller is at TE now and Williamson is rumored to be transferring, so that would leave us with 1-3 WR over 3 classes if we don't take any. We have 8 receivers leaving over the next two years and 3 more the year after, so we really do need to get 1-2 in just so we don't have all young receivers in 3 years.

FreddieMercuryHayes

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:03 PM ^

I think that by the time that NSD rolls around in Feb 2012, we may lose one or two more.  Did you take into account wiggle room with not giving a 5th year to those eligable?  Also, Big Ten rules state we can oversign by 3 I believe.  Would prefer not to, but if some big talent wants to come, we could take them this year, and have a smaller class next year.

ReggieNoble04

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:07 PM ^

Our top priority for the rest of this class is to establish both sides of the line. 4-5 Defensive Linemen are going be taken and I wouldn't put it past Hoke and Mattison to pull another 4 star linebacker out the blue. So that leaves us with roughly 4-5 to fill, I think they should close out 2 corners (Richardson and Morgan) and fill the rest with offensive players like a reciever or a couple 0-linemen

Maize and Blue…

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:29 PM ^

We have taken 8 or 9 LBs (depending on Beyer) the last two years.  That's a three deep not including returners.  It is highly unlikely they take another LB unless someone decommits. 

Figure 3-4 more OL, 1 QB, 1-2 WRs, possibly another TE, 2-3 DBs, 4-5 DL.  That would put us between 20-24 recruits meaning we need to have some attrition. I hope our APR can handle it.

 

joeyb

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:18 PM ^

RS Juniors this year who may or may not receive a 5th year:

Cox
Roundtree
TRob
B. Moore
Omameh
Barnum
Khoury
JT Floyd
Kovacs

Realisticaly, that's probably only TRob with Cox, Floyd, and Kovacs as possibilities if others step up to fill their spots. I think all three of those will be necessary contributors in 2012. Roundtree, Moore, Omameh, Barnum, and Khoury, should all be in the two deep, so It's probably only TRob.

FreddieMercuryHayes

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:35 PM ^

Hate talking about this, but I think you're right.  TRob just hasn't cracked any significant playing time yet, and considering the lessend use of slots in the new offense, well, time to move on.  Also if Cox doesn't crack into significant playing time this year, I can say the same thing about him.  Hadn't thought about Floyd actually, but we're so thin in the secondary that I just don't see it happening unless some underclassmen really step it up in the two deep.

J. Lichty

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:45 PM ^

significant contributor.  Khoury will likely be starting center.  Barnum and Ommameh will be starting guards (if Barnum not at tackle).  Brandon Moore will be only upperclass TE.  Cox is near top of depth chart right now.  Rountree goes without saying.  Kovacs is a two year starter, and top of depth chart as SS.  Floyd will be only upperclass CB with playing experience.

There will be some other attrition, but its not really coming from that group.

Erik_in_Dayton

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:20 PM ^

Kiel seems to me like a longer shot than Dunn, FWIW.  I've never read anything that made me think Kiel is particularly high on Michigan.  Dunn, on the other hand, has been more-or-less saying for awhile that he's committed to OSU but wants to check out Michigan.  I don't think he's expressed any interest in any other school.  The Tressel investigation seems to be giving him pause. 

I've never heard Dunn talk about it, and maybe a guy of his talent doesn't think this way, but OSU has a ton of highly-ranked running backs.  He's much more likely to find playing time at Michigan.

Mr Mackey

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:39 PM ^

To be fair though, Kiel hasn't really been talking much at all about any school. He seems a low-key guy who just hasn't been talking to the press about anyone. I wouldn't say that's necessarily a bad sign, but I do agree with you that he's probably the longest shot.

ken725

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:19 PM ^

I would imagine that some players that have offers no might not get a written offer because we have no space in that position.

joeyb

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:26 PM ^

I've seen a lot of offers that are conditional right now. Basically, they need to get to a certain physical or acadmeic level, they might need to attend a camp, etc. So, I'm assuming that a fair number of the offers out there are not commitable and won't merit an official offer come August. I doubt anyone that is already committed won't get a committable offer, but it's not like that hasn't happened before.

FreddieMercuryHayes

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:39 PM ^

Well Barnett seems like our only pure TE.  Clark is listed as an LB, but considering our new depth at LB, I could see him moving.  And Heitzman I was under the impression was headed to the DL.  And Miller is a converted WR, who was put there out of depth concerns.  So taking three TE's this class is not out of the question.

Chi-Blue

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:35 PM ^

I wouldn't be too surprised if some of the WR's possibly leave town especially those of the "Slot Ninja" variety. Hoke has stated time and again that they will be a power run team once again which means one less WR on the field. Roundtree should stay and from the Spring reports the coaches all have man-crushes on Dileo who is red-shirt Fresh. TR will finish out the elegibility at UM I would think as he is a JR, but Gallon(RS Soph)???  Hate to see guys go but with a complete system change you never know.

Also on the defensive side of the ball who knows what to make of the tweeners or hybrids that RR brought in. Robinson, and Furman were Secondary guys that last year were both rumored to be switching to LB's . . . not too much room at the LB position anymore with 4 last year and 4 this year, and if they have 4 star talent there is no way you should be behind Kovacs . . .again!!

JJB2

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:43 PM ^

One thought about QB....and this is pretty far fetched...but is Rob Bolden (PSU) still looking at transferring?  I realize JoePa wouldn't release him, but he was a teammate of Ross and we are looking for a QB.  Waiting out a year would be fine since he would be eligible to play the same year these 2012 QBs are coming.  I know he didn't have a very auspicious start at PSU but he was a starting freshman which says something.  Would we even want him if he could transfer?

 

GBOD79

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:46 PM ^

Big Ten rules stipulate that a player who transfers from one big ten institution to another, will not be eligible for an athletic scholarship at the new school. So if Bolden were to come here, it would be on his own dime.

JDVan

May 2nd, 2011 at 12:59 PM ^

Number should be 18 if you believe the unconfirmed but regular rumors of D.J. Williamson leaving the program.

I fully expect this number to continue to rise in fall camp and after the season. Everyone forgets these recruits wont be committing until Feb 2012.

Also, No Sheldon Day on your wish list there...you sir are crazy.

StephenRKass

May 2nd, 2011 at 1:42 PM ^

Day should be added to the list. I also think there will be one more OL for a total of three more. I wonder if one TE slides over to OL, so that we effectively have five plus one. Of course, I would love to seer O'Brien come, but think that is unlikely.

I am very doubtful about Kiel, and wonder if Dunn is really looking at Michigan. Also hope there is a good WR candidate or two out there, if Burbridge is unlikely. I guess I hope they max out at 21 or 22. This leaves room for someone like Kovacs to earn a scholarship, and doesn't hamstring us for 2013.

So here would be a revised possible list:

 

  1. Mauk, QB
  2. Thompson, TE
  3. OL????
  4. Diamond, OL
  5. Watson, OL
  6. Wormey, DE
  7. Ojemudia, DE
  8. Godin, DT
  9. Pipkins, DT
  10. Day, DT
  11. Richardson, CB
  12. WR???
  13. RB???

I have bolded perceived Michigan leans. I really don't know who among offensive linemen are Michigan leans, and I don't know solid skill position guys who are all in for Michigan.

Still, if we have the eight on board already, and the seven above, finishing with two more offensive linemen, two or three skill guys (QB, RB, & WR) and maybe one guy in the secondary, that would be a balanced and awesome class.

 

jbibiza

May 2nd, 2011 at 1:03 PM ^

Our biggest need at this point is at Defensive Tackle - Period.  Godin is as good as in the (Big) House which is a solid addition at 5 tech/SDE.  Hopefully he can sway O'Brien away from his Volunteer fixation because a DT Trifectea of O'Brien - Day - and Pipkins will go a long way towards meeting the huge need that we have at Defensive Tackle.  Offensive Tackle is also a bit of a black hole that can be filled by securing Diamond and one more stud (plus the possibility of AJ Williams growing into an OT).  Wormley is a must as he is a beast who can probably play either rush end or SDE/5tech.  One dedicated speed rusher like Ojemudia seems to be in the cards as well.

We need one QB and Kiel is not coming to Michigan which is fine with me because his film is extremely underwhelming - stars not withstanding I'll take Tyler O'Connor if he'll have us.  Pretty much the same for Dunn as our chances with him are slim and none.  If we are to take a running back in this class then it should be a guy with versatility like Mahone.  Burbridge is a stud but rumors of grade problems and Sparty leaning persist (Oh, Devin Lucien wherefor art thou?).  We will need at least one WR to go with Funchess who could be used as a large WR/H-Back (?).  Thompson will be a welcomed addtition as a receiving TE,  though his recent waffling is worrying.  If we have room I would like to take two or three DB's with particular emphasis on a Free Safety.  I agree with the staff's inclination to go with larger corners but if Richardson wants to join his buddies that's OK.  Love to get that kid from Brooklyn and bring some real attitude to the secondary.

MGoRob

May 2nd, 2011 at 1:50 PM ^

Do we really need a QB?  We've got Denard and Devin already.  With the new guy Bellomy coming in this year.  In most years, we've only had 2 QBs that I can recall.  Forcier/DRob. Brady/Henson. Henne/Mallett.  Navarre/Gutierrez.  Now that I write that list, I challenge you to come up with a 3rd QB in any given year (Clayton Richard doesn't count).

So really, I think it's possible to skip on QB this year if push comes to shove, and focus on a MEAGA QB for 2013

Magnus

May 2nd, 2011 at 2:00 PM ^

...isn't very good.

You should trust the rosters more.

Yes, we need a QB this year.

By the way, I can come up with a third QB from...well...2010:

Denard Robinson
Tate Forcier
Devin Gardner

In 2008 we had Steve Threet, David Cone, and Justin Feagin (in addition to Sheridan, who was a walk-on).

In 2007 we had Chad Henne, Ryan Mallett, and David Cone.

In 2006 we had Chad Henne, David Cone, and Jason Forcier.

Magnus

May 2nd, 2011 at 6:37 PM ^

A quarterback is a must in virtually every class.  It's the most important position on the field.  Bellomy needs to redshirt this year, so what if Denard tears his ACL?  It's Devin or...well...Jack Kennedy.  Bad news.

Four scholarship quarterbacks should be the lowest number you should aim to have.  And with all the position changes, transfers, career ending injuries, departures for baseball, etc. that happen, you can't afford to strike out.

We even took a QB in every class when Lloyd was here in the early 2000's, but Henne won the job as a freshman, Gutierrez transferred, Forcier transferred, Mallett transferred, Cone sucked, etc....and we ended up with the abomination that was our 2008 quarterback situation.  And while that was just kind of a perfect storm of transfers/coaching changes/etc., it's also something that should be avoided at all costs.