Tracking 2010 Turnovers

Submitted by Enjoy Life on

After only 1 game, there is not much data. I will update this after every game. The Extrapolation is a straight line:[ Totals] X [12 Total Games / Games Played] . Not very sexy but easy to calculate.

Good News: TOM = +1                  Bad News:  M had 3 fumbles in one game.

 

Michigan (TO Lost)

 

Opposition (TO Gained)

       

Opp

Int

FMB

FL

Tot

 

Int

Fmb

FL

Tot

 

TOM

Score

WLM

Uconn

0

3

0

0

 

0

1

1

1

 

1

30-10

1

ND

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Umass

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BGU

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Indiana

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MSU

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Iowa

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PSU

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Illini

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Purdue

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wisc

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

osu

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

0

3

0

0

 

0

1

1

1

 

1

 

1

                           

Extrap

0

36

0

0

 

0

12

12

12

 

12

   

Remember here are the correlations of TOM to WLM at season’s end:

TOM is a significant contributing factor in determining the WLM.

90% of teams with a positive TOM of 5.0 or greater had winning records
84% of teams with positive TOM had winning records
Only 41% of teams with negative TOM had winning records
Only 28% of teams with a negative TOM of -5 or worse had winning records

62% of teams with a positive TOM of 5.0 or greater had WLM of +4 or better (8-4 record or better)
38% of teams with a TOM of 0 to +4.0 had a WLM of 4 or better
Only 25% of teams with a TOM 0 to -4.0 had a WLM of +4 or better
Only 8% of teams with a negative TOM of -5 or worse had WLM of +4 or better

Details here: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/turnover-analysis-part-3-what-impact-winning

diehardalum

September 7th, 2010 at 12:53 PM ^

that if Michigan wants to win the big games we absolutely have to win the turnover ratio.   We have lost the turnover ratio the past two years and its no surprise that we were unable to eek out wins in our close games.  I think it goes without saying the if would have won our turnover ratio last year, we easily would have had 3 more wins against teams  including Michigan State and Iowa. 

Red is Blue

September 7th, 2010 at 1:15 PM ^

Turnovers and WLM are certainly correlated and a high TOM certainly leads to more losses.  That being said, it also needs to be recognized that it goes the other way as well.  If you're losing a lot, you're more prone to take chances to try to catch up and those chances sometimes result in turnovers while the other team has exactly the opposite incentive -- low risk.  So turnovers are sometimes a symptom of losing without causing the loss.